Winter's Usual Pattern...

Good Evening!

Has it really been over 8 months since I have posted on this blog!?  WOW!  I guess when you're working 2 jobs to pay the bills that's what happens.  At any rate, looking like some moderation and relief from the bone numbing cold is on the way.  Let's have a look and see what's going on...

CLOUDS MOVING OUT - SLOWLY:  Infrared satellite shows clouds slowing working through Michigan with westerly winds pushing.  We note the Canadian air coming in behind all of this as well...

Readings currently in the 20's at all reporting stations with varying degrees of cloudiness at this hour.

STILL COLD:  We'll get the clouds out of here and then the cold Canadian air is free to roll in.  Single digit lows will greet you as you head out the door to work in the morning, with subzero wind chills, all the way down to near 10 below zero!  Fortunately those won't stick around long enough to present any sort of issue where a Wind Chill Warning is needed - at least not right now.  That will be the pattern for the next few days, with daytime highs not getting out of the 20's and lows in the single digits, with wind chills making it feel like zero or worse until Wednesday.

MIDWEEK MODERATION:  Temperatures will finally get north of freezing mid week, with daytime highs around South Central Michigan set to get into the mid to upper 30's, and some areas may even stretch into the 40's.  Positively balmy as compared to what's going on now!  Forecast data is suggesting a high of 45 in Jackson for Wednesday, but I think that's a bit ambitious on the model's part.  I'll say 40-43 would work though. The bad news is those readings stick around for only a day or two, then back to the daytime highs in the 20's and very cold nights bit again.  The next chance for any moderation appears to be Sunday.

PRECIPITATION:  Coincident with the brief warm-up mid-week, we'll need to introduce the chance of some rain into the picture as well.  I would say anywhere from a 3 in 10 to 50 - 50 chance of some showers would fill the bill.

LOOKING AHEAD:    The full scoop is still a ways off, but mid week next week, the Tuesday/Wed timeframe, forecast data is suggesting the chance of a wintry mix of precipitation.  Be aware of this planning your travels next week.

Here's the forecast:

Tonight - Clearing skies and cold, lows roll back to near 11.

Monday - Mostly sunny, continued seasonably cold, highs only near 28.

Monday Night - Mainly clear, some passing clouds - very cold.  Lows down to 6 with wind chills below zero likely.

Tuesday - Partly to mainly sunny, a touch warmer, high 29.

Wednesday - More clouds than sun, chance of rain, warmer, high 43.

Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy, rain still a possibility, high 46.

Friday - Continued mainly overcast, but sharply colder as a cold front moves through, highs top out near 29.

Saturday - Clearing skies, becoming mostly sunny, warmer, high 36.

I hope you have a great evening!

Quick Severe Weather Update

Good Afternoon!

Updating the severe weather potential part of the forecast for you.  The Storm Prediction Center has trimmed out the western half of Michigan from the slight risk area, but the are keeping it in for the eastern half of Michigan.  The area that was trimmed out though, is west of US-131, so we still could see some severe weather with gusty winds and marginally severe hail.

We haven't been able to heat up as much as I had expected just yet, because some lingering mid to high clouds have kept some of the sun out of here.  This will mitigate the severe threat somewhat as well.  We'll still need to keep watch for severe storms, but these will be after probably 3 PM, a bit less widespread than initially expected, and gusty outflow winds will be the main threat.

Stay weather aware!

Cooling Down After Some Stormy Weather

Good Evening!

We'll see some changes in the weather pattern over the next day or two, but we need to get through a period of potentially rough weather first.  Let's dive in and have a quick look at it.

SLIGHT SEVERE RISK TODAY:  We note that the Storm Prediction Center has placed all of lower Michigan into a risk category of some type.  Here in South Central Michigan, we see the standard "slight" risk for severe weather...

And a "marginal" risk identified for the northern part of the Lower Peninsula and the eastern Upper Peninsula.  The main threat would be damaging wind, marginally severe hail, and some heavy downpours.  I am NOT seeing where we would have tornado issues to worry about.  I would be close to good source of weather information tomorrow afternoon though.

BIG PICTURE:  Taking a look at the upper air setup, we see primarily zonal flow (west to east winds) up at about thirty thousand feet plus.  Coming down toward the ground, at around 18,000 feet, we have a ridge west/trough east setup, and all of the weather makers coming on-shore via the Pacific Northwest immediately get re-routed up through Canada and then slide down the back of the ridge...

The blue shading over Michigan indicates an upper disturbance that came down the back side of the ridge via the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  Again, while some severe weather is possible, the better chances of this should remain north of us, I would say from St. Johns north is where the action would be.  We'll have to see how the fine details set up though - any boundaries and such over the state, the amount of daytime heating, these kind of things.

DETAILS, DETAILS:  Any shower or thunderstorm activity appears to be most likely to start sometime after 2 pm.  The main body of the storms should slide well north.  I would think that way up by the international border is the best bet.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES BY:  We'll see cooler, more comfortable conditions with readings in the upper 70's to lower 80's for a couple of days before the warmer weather moves back into Michigan on Wednesday, which also lines up with our next credible chance at some showers and storms.  Looking down the line, forecast model data is suggesting that we will start August not in the dog days pattern,, with lower dew point values and readings holding in the lower 80's.  In other words, seasonable to start the tail end of summer 2017.

Here's the forecast for South Central Michigan including Jackson, Michigan Center, and Springport:

Tonight - More clouds than stars, seasonably mild, low near 66.

Sunday - AM sunshine, clouds increase as the day progresses, PM showers and storms developing, some of these could be severe.  High 87.

Sunday Night - Skies clearing slowly, any rain in the area should be gone around 11 PM.  Lows near 63.

Monday - Mainly clear and cooler.  High 78.

Tuesday - Continued mostly sunny and comfortable.  High 81.

Wednesday - Clouds on the increase as the day progresses, some PM showers and perhaps an isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm.  Warmer, high 86.

Thursday - Mixed sunshine and perhaps a couple of widely scattered showers, a touch cooler.  High 82.

Friday - Sunny and pleasant.  High 81.

There's your forecast, have a great one!

Drying Out Midweek...

Good Morning!

Plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity in the area this morning, fortunately, not a big deal aside from the continuing rain causing some flooding issues over the next few days.  Let's have a look at it all:

RAINY NOW:  A look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar loop for the last hour or so shows those showers and storms working into and through the area...

You can see the core of the low tracking north-northeast, with the dry slot working up toward Calhoun and Ingham counties.  That will allow a bit of a breather, but wrap around precipitation on the back side will fill in soon thereafter.  At least it's not cold enough that we have to worry about snow.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES:  Average high in the are this time of year is right about 66 degrees, and except for a cool snap Monday and Tuesday, we'll be in the ballpark.   Mid 60's, then a dip into the 50's for Tuesday and Wednesday and then we get back into the seasonal range.

WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION:  Well, the showers and such are going to linger through Tuesday or perhaps even Wednesday before we get a real opportunity to dry out.  The latter half of the week does look to be sunny and seasonable, so hang in there!  Here's what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking regarding rain for the next five days:

You see that for most of the area we are looking at anywhere from three-quarters to 1 3/4 inches of rain.  That will likely cause some flooding along riverbanks and in low-lying areas.  The good news is that after that, no really organized chances of rain on the horizon.

I hope that you have a wonderful day!

Stormy Thursday...

Good Morning...

Burning the midnight oil a little bit here as South Central Michigan is under a severe weather threat.  Let's get right to it.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE:  The Storm Prediction Center has us in the standard "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms today.  Here's a look at that graphic:

The entire blog area is under some risk of severe weather, with most of Calhoun, Eaton, and Clinton counties in the "marginal" risk area as opposed to the slight risk.  Right now it appears hail and gusty winds will be the main threats, but I cannot rule out the chance of a tornado at this point.  I can say that risk appears to be pretty low.

WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?:  A low pressure system that is lifting out of Kansas and Nebraska and through Iowa, with the frontal boundary connected to the surface low triggering some showers and thunderstorms out in the warm sector.  On the back side of the system, sharply cooler conditions and winds turning northerly, pushing the mild air out of here and colder Canadian air working in.  Those 70 and occasional 80 degree readings we have seen will vacate the premises for awhile.  The cold front will cost us around 20 degrees of warmth!

PRECIPITATION:  The showers and thunder that is expected tomorrow will make up the lion's share of the precipitation for the next five days.  Let's have a look at how much we may see...

Along and south of I-96, half to three-quarters of an inch, more as you go north.  The bullseye will be down in the southern Plains and into the Tennessee Valley, with three inches or better of precipitation expected.  Rain and some of it locally heavy, with a small chance of minor flash flooding is in the equation for the next few days.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Clouds and cooler conditions stay in the area until late Saturday into Sunday, when we'll see some clearing skies and temperatures starting to climb again.  Average high in the area this time of year is right around 61, and I expect us to get back there as the weekend winds down, with temperatures back into the upper 60's and lower 70's by this time next week.  Wednesday also appears to be the next credible chance for rain in the area after we get some of that gone.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center.

Today - Becoming cloudy with developing PM showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe, with gusty winds and hail up to quarter size possible. High 71 then falling.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms early, then dying off as the night wears on, cooler.  Lows near 41.

Friday - Mixed sunshine, much cooler, we can't rule out a stray shower.  High 54.

Saturday - Just the occasional peek of sunshine, temperatures stay fairly steady.  High 55.

Sunday - Turning sunny and warmer as seasonal readings return,  High 63.

Monday - Partly sunny, temperatures again hold nearly steady.  High 64.

There's your five day outlook, be looking for updates to the weather situation on Twitter @wxMikeD or on the Facebook page as needed.  Have a great one!