Also, The National Weather is still allowing the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 1 PM, they expect only another inch of accumulation or so as the snow winds down.
Monday, February 4, 2013
Quick Look - Updated
A sharp-eyed reader pointed out a goof in my 36 hour forecast - I did cover it in the detailed one, but we have a Clipper set to snow on us tomorrow afternoon, but I only put in flurries initially. That's been corrected. Thanks Tyler!
Also, The National Weather is still allowing the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 1 PM, they expect only another inch of accumulation or so as the snow winds down.
Also, The National Weather is still allowing the Winter Weather Advisory to expire at 1 PM, they expect only another inch of accumulation or so as the snow winds down.
Steady Snow...Slowly Warming...
Good Morning!
SUMMARY: A bit of an upper disturbance is evident at about 5000 feet off the ground according to the charts I have looked at this morning, and that, combined with the moisture we have available, and winds blowing off the lake is all mixing to to make well, a mess. We would have had the lake-effect snow anyway, but that upper disturbance is helping it and that's why we have more copious snowfall. I'm thinking that as the disturbance slides by to the south, we gradually lose some of the snow, as it won't have a helping hand to stay as organized as it is now. Fairly organized lake-effect should still be in play for places west of I-69 though with northwest winds. Have a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar...
A little higher up in the sky, all the wind is almost due west, so as long as we have that disturbance kind of gluing things together, expect the snow to keep pushing well inland. We get a bit of a break, but then a second Clipper breezes through tomorrow morning, so I expect snow more snow out of it. 1-2" here, more locally, especially west of US 131. We get that out of here, then maybe just some flurries until Thursday, when we get another Clipper, and, you guessed it, another inch or two of snow.
TEMPERATURES: Now that you know what we have for the week, temperature wise, it's a bit clearer picture. First, I don't see any really nasty cold hitting us. Seasonably cold and some single digits at night, sure. We are in Michigan after all, and cold air likes to invade periodically. Daytime highs will be in the 20's and then they start to trend a little higher mid week. Climatology suggests an average temperature right at freezing, so we start under that, sneak up on it, then stay in the ballpark until early next week, when computer forecast models are thinking about upper 30's. Too early to see if that holds water yet though. We'll check it tomorrow and see what we get.
Here's a look at a current surface temperature plot...
And this is the 5 day precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service:
That .40" of liquid bullseye disappeared from up by Cadillac, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see around 4" of snow up that way over the next five days. This map is good through 7 AM EST on Saturday.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:
Today, cloudy, snow tapering off after lunch, high 21, winds N 5-10 MPH. An inch or two of additional accumulation expected, some areas may pick up three inches of new snow.
Tonight, mainly cloudy, maybe a bit of light snow, very cold, lows down near 7, wind chills drop to around zero or even -5. Wind N 3-7 MPH.
Tuesday, continued cloudy another Clipper heading in during the afternoon brings us a chance of more snow, perhaps up to 2" locally, most places closer to 1". High 24, winds W 5-10 MPH keep wind chills in the teens.
Tuesday night, cloudy skies, snow tapering off after 10 PM, not as cold as Monday night with lows down around 10, winds W 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, possibly a peek of sun, not as cold, high 25.
Thursday, cloudy skies, snow developing mid-morning, perhaps 2" in most places, some may be heavier, high 33.
Friday, a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine, warmer still, high 32.
Saturday, partly sunny, high 35.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, high 37.
There's a look at you six day forecast, I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Big, thick snowflakes falling in the area at this hour. A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the south zone of the blog through 1 PM. I expect 1-2" of additional accumulation between now and when all of this starts to taper off later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Let's take a dive into it and see what we have going on...
SUMMARY: A bit of an upper disturbance is evident at about 5000 feet off the ground according to the charts I have looked at this morning, and that, combined with the moisture we have available, and winds blowing off the lake is all mixing to to make well, a mess. We would have had the lake-effect snow anyway, but that upper disturbance is helping it and that's why we have more copious snowfall. I'm thinking that as the disturbance slides by to the south, we gradually lose some of the snow, as it won't have a helping hand to stay as organized as it is now. Fairly organized lake-effect should still be in play for places west of I-69 though with northwest winds. Have a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar...
 |
| Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity |
TEMPERATURES: Now that you know what we have for the week, temperature wise, it's a bit clearer picture. First, I don't see any really nasty cold hitting us. Seasonably cold and some single digits at night, sure. We are in Michigan after all, and cold air likes to invade periodically. Daytime highs will be in the 20's and then they start to trend a little higher mid week. Climatology suggests an average temperature right at freezing, so we start under that, sneak up on it, then stay in the ballpark until early next week, when computer forecast models are thinking about upper 30's. Too early to see if that holds water yet though. We'll check it tomorrow and see what we get.
Here's a look at a current surface temperature plot...
And this is the 5 day precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service:
 |
| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
That .40" of liquid bullseye disappeared from up by Cadillac, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see around 4" of snow up that way over the next five days. This map is good through 7 AM EST on Saturday.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:
Today, cloudy, snow tapering off after lunch, high 21, winds N 5-10 MPH. An inch or two of additional accumulation expected, some areas may pick up three inches of new snow.
Tonight, mainly cloudy, maybe a bit of light snow, very cold, lows down near 7, wind chills drop to around zero or even -5. Wind N 3-7 MPH.
Tuesday, continued cloudy another Clipper heading in during the afternoon brings us a chance of more snow, perhaps up to 2" locally, most places closer to 1". High 24, winds W 5-10 MPH keep wind chills in the teens.
Tuesday night, cloudy skies, snow tapering off after 10 PM, not as cold as Monday night with lows down around 10, winds W 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, possibly a peek of sun, not as cold, high 25.
Thursday, cloudy skies, snow developing mid-morning, perhaps 2" in most places, some may be heavier, high 33.
Friday, a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine, warmer still, high 32.
Saturday, partly sunny, high 35.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, high 37.
There's a look at you six day forecast, I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Snowy Super Bowl Sunday!
Good Afternoon!
The snow that I forecast as just being light has intensified over the last few hours and become our familiar friend lake-effect. Just take a look at the banding visible in the radar reflectivity image from the Grand Rapids NEXRAD.
So, MOTS - More Of The Same. Lake-effect snow, heavy west of 131, some of that reaching into south central Michigan and creating some headaches.
SUMMARY: As I indicated before, ridge west, trough east in the upper air setup. Northwest wind coming out of Canada and pulling cold air down with it. Some embedded disturbances in the larger flow pattern. Chilly northwest winds blowing across a slightly warmer Lake Michigan trigger lake-effect snow that is then carried across the state from winds blowing around 40 MPH or so at 5,000 feet above the ground. This is our setup in a nutshell for the next few days, and we keep it around at least through the middle of the week, when some changes start occurring in the upper atmosphere.
Forecast models mid week indicate that our flow will change to a more zonal pattern Wednesday night, with a few waves in it. We warm up slightly as ridging tries to sneak some warmer air up this way, but I am less than thrilled with any real warmth making it this way. All in all, I think we remain in the mid 30's from Wednesday through to the weekend.
SNOW: With the lake-effect snow going on, we pick up 2-4" lake-effect aided inches in most spots of the blog, especially in the south zone tomorrow. After that, a couple of Clipper systems Tuesday, and perhaps Thursday will bring us more snow. Right now, two inches looks like a safe bet on the high side for the Thursday Clipper. I fully expect to change it up a bit as we get closer to the tail end of the work week. Here's what the National Weather Service thinks regarding precipitation for the next five days...
That .40" bullseye up around Cadillac looks interesting. If that verifies, another six inches are possible up that way.
OK, here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Parma:
Tonight, cloudy skies, snow picking up in intensity late; 2-3" possible by morning drive, locally heavier amounts possible, low 12, wind chills near zero. Winds become northerly 5-10 MPH.
Monday, continued cloudy, snow tapering off around lunchtime, high 21, winds N 5-10 MPH. Up to an inch of additional accumulation possible.
Monday night, mainly cloudy, maybe a few peeks of snow, very cold, lows down near 8, wind chills drop to around zero. Wind N 3-7 MPH.
Tuesday, cloudy skies continue, another Clipper brings us a chance of more snow, perhaps up to 2" locally, most places closer to 1". High 23, winds W 6-12 MPH keep wind chills in the teens.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, possibly a peek of sun, not as cold, high 28, wind WSW 6-12 MPH.
Thursday, cloudy skies, snow developing mid-morning, perhaps 2" in most places, some may be heavier, high 33.
Friday, a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine, warmer still, high 36.
Saturday, partly sunny, high 36.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope that you have a great evening. Enjoy the Super Bowl! Blessings.
The snow that I forecast as just being light has intensified over the last few hours and become our familiar friend lake-effect. Just take a look at the banding visible in the radar reflectivity image from the Grand Rapids NEXRAD.
 |
| Grand Rapids NEXRAD |
SUMMARY: As I indicated before, ridge west, trough east in the upper air setup. Northwest wind coming out of Canada and pulling cold air down with it. Some embedded disturbances in the larger flow pattern. Chilly northwest winds blowing across a slightly warmer Lake Michigan trigger lake-effect snow that is then carried across the state from winds blowing around 40 MPH or so at 5,000 feet above the ground. This is our setup in a nutshell for the next few days, and we keep it around at least through the middle of the week, when some changes start occurring in the upper atmosphere.
Forecast models mid week indicate that our flow will change to a more zonal pattern Wednesday night, with a few waves in it. We warm up slightly as ridging tries to sneak some warmer air up this way, but I am less than thrilled with any real warmth making it this way. All in all, I think we remain in the mid 30's from Wednesday through to the weekend.
SNOW: With the lake-effect snow going on, we pick up 2-4" lake-effect aided inches in most spots of the blog, especially in the south zone tomorrow. After that, a couple of Clipper systems Tuesday, and perhaps Thursday will bring us more snow. Right now, two inches looks like a safe bet on the high side for the Thursday Clipper. I fully expect to change it up a bit as we get closer to the tail end of the work week. Here's what the National Weather Service thinks regarding precipitation for the next five days...
 |
| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
OK, here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Parma:
Tonight, cloudy skies, snow picking up in intensity late; 2-3" possible by morning drive, locally heavier amounts possible, low 12, wind chills near zero. Winds become northerly 5-10 MPH.
Monday, continued cloudy, snow tapering off around lunchtime, high 21, winds N 5-10 MPH. Up to an inch of additional accumulation possible.
Monday night, mainly cloudy, maybe a few peeks of snow, very cold, lows down near 8, wind chills drop to around zero. Wind N 3-7 MPH.
Tuesday, cloudy skies continue, another Clipper brings us a chance of more snow, perhaps up to 2" locally, most places closer to 1". High 23, winds W 6-12 MPH keep wind chills in the teens.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, possibly a peek of sun, not as cold, high 28, wind WSW 6-12 MPH.
Thursday, cloudy skies, snow developing mid-morning, perhaps 2" in most places, some may be heavier, high 33.
Friday, a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine, warmer still, high 36.
Saturday, partly sunny, high 36.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope that you have a great evening. Enjoy the Super Bowl! Blessings.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED...
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Jackson, Calhoun, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Washtenaw counties through 2 PM tomorrow. 2-4" of new snow is expected between midnight tonight and 2 PM tomorrow. Expect a slick morning commute and reduced visibility while traveling.
Sunday Outlook...
Good Evening!
For the first time in recent days, we have no snow-related weather advisories on the map! There's not much to see anywhere right now, except a thin line of precipitation out over Lake Michigan. Right now we have mainly clear skies in Jackson, but they will cloud up again as we head toward daybreak.
SUMMARY: Ridge/trough setup in the upper air over the US, so we get Clippers. We don't get a whole lot of temperature variation, but for the next few days, you can expect an upper disturbance to zip through the area every 24-48 hours. These little systems, called Alberta Clippers, will bother the atmosphere enough to stir up some snow. You stand a chance at 1-2" of new snow each time one comes through, and right now, forecast data suggests that we'll see one tomorrow, Monday, and perhaps late Tuesday. After that, any significant snow chances fade until Friday.
Temperatures stay right in the low 20's for daytime highs, with nighttime lows rolling back into single digit territory. Wind chills shouldn't be quite as extreme as they have been, but still right around zero or even a little bit below. Temperatures look to moderate, with a nice jump from right around 30 on Wednesday to almost 40 for Thursday and on into the weekend. Here's the forecast for Jackson.
Today: Mainly cloudy, chance of light snow during the afternoon, any snow that does fall should be light with accumulations about an inch, high 22. Winds NNW 5-10 MPH.
Have a great Sunday!
For the first time in recent days, we have no snow-related weather advisories on the map! There's not much to see anywhere right now, except a thin line of precipitation out over Lake Michigan. Right now we have mainly clear skies in Jackson, but they will cloud up again as we head toward daybreak.
SUMMARY: Ridge/trough setup in the upper air over the US, so we get Clippers. We don't get a whole lot of temperature variation, but for the next few days, you can expect an upper disturbance to zip through the area every 24-48 hours. These little systems, called Alberta Clippers, will bother the atmosphere enough to stir up some snow. You stand a chance at 1-2" of new snow each time one comes through, and right now, forecast data suggests that we'll see one tomorrow, Monday, and perhaps late Tuesday. After that, any significant snow chances fade until Friday.
Temperatures stay right in the low 20's for daytime highs, with nighttime lows rolling back into single digit territory. Wind chills shouldn't be quite as extreme as they have been, but still right around zero or even a little bit below. Temperatures look to moderate, with a nice jump from right around 30 on Wednesday to almost 40 for Thursday and on into the weekend. Here's the forecast for Jackson.
Today: Mainly cloudy, chance of light snow during the afternoon, any snow that does fall should be light with accumulations about an inch, high 22. Winds NNW 5-10 MPH.
Have a great Sunday!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)