Steady Snow...Slowly Warming...

Good Morning!

Big, thick snowflakes falling in the area at this hour.  A Winter Weather Advisory continues for the south zone of the blog through 1 PM.  I expect 1-2" of additional accumulation between now and when all of this starts to taper off later this morning and into the afternoon hours.  Let's take a dive into it and see what we have going on...

SUMMARY:  A bit of an upper disturbance is evident at about 5000 feet off the ground according to the charts I have looked at this morning, and that, combined with the moisture we have available, and winds blowing off the lake is all mixing to to make well, a mess.  We would have had the lake-effect snow anyway, but that upper disturbance is helping it and that's why we have more copious snowfall.  I'm thinking that as the disturbance slides by to the south, we gradually lose some of the snow, as it won't have a helping hand to stay as organized as it is now.  Fairly organized lake-effect should still be in play for places west of I-69 though with northwest winds.  Have a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

A little higher up in the sky, all the wind is almost due west, so as long as we have that disturbance kind of gluing things together, expect the snow to keep pushing well inland.  We get a bit of a break, but then a second Clipper breezes through tomorrow morning, so I expect snow more snow out of it.  1-2" here, more locally, especially west of US 131.  We get that out of here, then maybe just some flurries until Thursday, when we get another Clipper, and, you guessed it, another inch or two of snow.

TEMPERATURES:  Now that you know what we have for the week, temperature wise, it's a bit clearer picture.  First, I don't see any really nasty cold hitting us.  Seasonably cold and some single digits at night, sure.  We are in Michigan after all, and cold air likes to invade periodically.  Daytime highs will be in the 20's and then they start to trend a little higher mid week.  Climatology suggests an average temperature right at freezing, so we start under that, sneak up on it, then stay in the ballpark until early next week, when computer forecast models are thinking about upper 30's.  Too early to see if that holds water yet though.  We'll check it tomorrow and see what we get.

Here's a look at a current surface temperature plot...

And this is the 5 day precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

That .40" of liquid bullseye disappeared from up by Cadillac, but I still wouldn't be shocked to see around 4" of snow up that way over the next five days.  This map is good through 7 AM EST on Saturday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today, cloudy, snow tapering off after lunch, high 21, winds N 5-10 MPH.  An inch or two of additional accumulation expected, some areas may pick up three inches of new snow.

Tonight, mainly cloudy, maybe a bit of light snow, very cold, lows down near 7, wind chills drop to around zero or even -5.  Wind N 3-7 MPH.

Tuesday, continued cloudy another Clipper heading in during the afternoon brings us a chance of more snow, perhaps up to 2" locally, most places closer to 1".  High 24, winds W 5-10 MPH keep wind chills in the teens.

Tuesday night, cloudy skies, snow tapering off after 10 PM, not as cold as Monday night with lows down around 10, winds W 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, mainly cloudy, possibly a peek of sun, not as cold, high 25.

Thursday, cloudy skies, snow developing mid-morning, perhaps 2" in most places, some may be heavier, high 33.

Friday, a mix of clouds and a bit of sunshine, warmer still, high 32.

Saturday, partly sunny, high 35.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, high 37.

There's a look at you six day forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.