Strong Thunderstorms Moving In!

Branch County - You have strong thunderstorms headed at you from Indiana.  They are tracking NE at 65 MPH.  They have a history of lightning, gusty winds, and penny sized hail.  You'll want to head for a sturdy building and let them blow through.  It shouldn't take too long with a 65 MPH ground speed.  Calhoun, Jackson, Hillsdale, these will be an issue for you as well.

Short-Term Forecasts

Here's a look at the short-term forecast for Jackson and Lansing:

It Runs Warm Then Cold...

Good Afternoon!

Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today, cloudy skies, scattered showers re-develop as the afternoon progresses, a couple of buried thunderstorms are possible, high 56.  Winds SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

Tonight, numerous showers, a few thunderstorms as well, temperatures don't really move all that much, with lows only dropping back to 50.  Winds SW 10-20 MPH.

Wednesday, more clouds, continued unseasonably mild to start, then temperatures rapidly fall to winter levels.  A few stray showers turn to a few stray flurries by nightfall, high 57, winds swing from SW to W 10-20 MPH.  Your temperatures as you head out to work or school will be around 48 degrees and falling.

Wednesday night, cloudy skies, much colder, nighttime lows struggle to get above 16, winds W 10-20 MPH.  Wind chills will likely be in the single digits.

Thursday, clouds don't go anywhere, seasonably cold, high temperature 22, wind W 8-14 MPH.  Wind chills stay in the teens.

Friday, we keep the cloudy skies around, some flurries or light snow are possible, high 18.

Saturday, periods of clouds, not quite as cold, perhaps some light snow, high 25.

Sunday, partly sunny, high 30.

Monday, partly cloudy, high 32.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  Stay tuned for updates.  Have a great Tuesday!

Big Rain, Big Changes

Good Evening!

Weather extremes on tap over the next day or so, let's get right to it.

SUMMARY:  Tonight, dense fog due to moist air from snow melt, and not very much wind.  Tomorrow, unseasonably warm weather takes hold with temperatures in most areas well into the the 50's.  Showers and the possibility of a few buried thunderstorms are in the mix as well.  Plenty of moisture from rain and snow melt may create some flooding issues.

Here's something you don't see every day.  This is the severe weather outlook map from the Storm Prediction Center.  I typically don't start including these in the forecast summary until spring and summer.  Here it is though, and you see that here in Michigan we have a risk for garden-variety thunderstorms.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook

Looking into the Deep South, the setup favors a significant severe weather event, including severe storms and tornadoes.  Moderate risk for severe weather has already been identified in parts of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

After we get through tomorrow, temperatures start to fall back into the 40's then a temperature free fall with snow for the tail end of the week.  By the time Thursday gets here, we give back 40 degrees of temperature on the thermometer, with daytime highs in the teens, and wind chills in the single digits or colder.  We also replenish the snow that we have melted away too.

PRECIPITATION:  All modes we have had, all modes we will have.  We went from snow to freezing rain and sleet to rain, we go the other way over the next couple of days.  A series of lows invade from the southwest.  We start getting wet tomorrow morning and keep things going, then a second, more intense 988mb low comes through  on Wednesday.  Right behind that, the mercury nosedives, and our rain changes back to a wintry mix then snow.  On top of that, it appears that lake-effect snow will also become part of the mix, with the lake-effect snow machine cranking up again and bringing persistent snows to areas west of US 131.  I am not sure how this will impact us here in south central Michigan at this time.  We'll have to check that with fresh forecast model data.

I will have a complete six day forecast for you later.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY, FLOOD WATCH

Good Evening!

I have been ill with a 101 fever all day, and I am just now feeling well enough to start looking at data.  I am fairly sure that you are aware of these weather alerts, but I will list them anyway.  I also will be looking at data to see what the next day or so will bring us, as it looks like thing could get rough and stormy.

Dense Fog Advisory - Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Lenawee - thru 11 AM Tuesday morning.

Flood Watch - Shiawassee, Branch, Hillsdale, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson, Clinton, Lenawee, Washtenaw - heavy rains combined with rapid snowmelt create potential for flooding.