Discussion and extended outlook are on the way!
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Quick Look For Hump Day...
Another winner on tap for today, here's my forecast for you...
Discussion and extended outlook are on the way!
Discussion and extended outlook are on the way!
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Lots of Sun, Warming Trend In Progress...
Good Afternoon!
Lots of sunshine with clouds that are thinning out over the area at this hour, and that trend continues. Examining the satellite out over Lake Michigan and into Wisconsin, there's no clouds there, just blue skies.
Let's pop the hood and see what we have going on!
TEMPERATURES: Temperatures are starting to creep up. We saw temperatures in the 40's and low 50's the last few nights, that will change as we move ahead in the week. Daytime highs are on the upswing as well, with temperature readings climbing into the lower to middle 80's by Friday, as damping of the upper-air ridge/trough pattern continues, and the resulting west-southwest flow allows all that heat that has been trapped in the southwest to spread eastward across the US. I do not expect us to get roasted anymore like we did earlier on this summer, but we will see some readings that are definitely conducive to getting some sun and maybe cooling off in a pool or lake near you! Nighttime readings will leave the 40's behind for awhile, and should warm into the 60's in time for the weekend.
RAIN: Not a whole lot of that to talk about in this forecast, even though a semi-broken line of showers and thunderstorms formed and dropped some heavy rain on the Detroit metro area. Southern Macomb County is under an urban/small stream flood advisory through rush hour. You can see those storms headed off into Canada and points east on the Detroit NEXRAD...
As it stands now, the next credible shot we have at rain this area is this weekend at the earliest, but it looks to be more late weekend, Sunday night into Monday. We just don't bring a lot of moisture into the area before Friday, and to get rain, you typically have to have a sharp temperature gradient and some moisture, preferably from the Gulf of Mexico. Neither of those conditions are in the forecast for the next few days, just a gradual warming. That being said, computer modeling does indicate that dewpoints will start to creep up as the weekend approaches. Here's a look at the forecast from the National Weather Service for the next five days...
The forecast map paints the picture...BONE DRY through the week and into the weekend.
SEVERE WEATHER: We're getting into the time of year where the severe threat tends to stay fairly low for a few days at a time. Typically, we find a "slight" risk on the map somewhere at least every two to three days, and they are in the Midwest, Great Plains, Dixie Alley, or Tornado Alley. Not so now. That will change as the seasons begin to morph from summer to fall, and we get unsettled weather again, as summer conditions fight to hang on in the face of the cold season arriving. The whole US is in a pretty quiet pattern, with no formal severe risk areas outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days, and just a few "see text" areas on their maps that mark low end 5% chances for wind and hail issues. That being said, all we need is a major pattern shift or a tropical system to make landfall someplace on the mainland, and then this regime goes out the window.
Sunshine and breezy here in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone at this hour, let's take a look at the forecast for you...
Tonight, mostly starry skies, with a few passing clouds nighttime low 50, winds die off and become calm, then SW to 5 MPH as daybreak approaches.
Wednesday, mostly sunny skies, warmer, high 79, winds SW calm to 5 MPH.
Wednesday night, skies remain mostly clear, maybe a couple of passing clouds, not quite as cool with lows rolling back to 53, winds SW 3-7 MPH.
Thursday, sunshine, some passing clouds later in the day, warmer, high 81, winds SW 4-9 MPH.
Thursday night, a mix of clouds and stars, low 55, winds S 3-7 MPH.
Friday, more sun than clouds, breezy and warmer, high 84, winds S 5-10 MPH.
Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a chance of a couple of scattered showers, perhaps a lonely thunderstorm, high 85.
Sunday, continued partly cloudy and warm, we still can't rule out a stray shower or storm, high 84.
Monday, partly sunny, not as warm, a chance at a widely scattered shower, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening! Blessings.
Lots of sunshine with clouds that are thinning out over the area at this hour, and that trend continues. Examining the satellite out over Lake Michigan and into Wisconsin, there's no clouds there, just blue skies.
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| Visible Satellite Image |
TEMPERATURES: Temperatures are starting to creep up. We saw temperatures in the 40's and low 50's the last few nights, that will change as we move ahead in the week. Daytime highs are on the upswing as well, with temperature readings climbing into the lower to middle 80's by Friday, as damping of the upper-air ridge/trough pattern continues, and the resulting west-southwest flow allows all that heat that has been trapped in the southwest to spread eastward across the US. I do not expect us to get roasted anymore like we did earlier on this summer, but we will see some readings that are definitely conducive to getting some sun and maybe cooling off in a pool or lake near you! Nighttime readings will leave the 40's behind for awhile, and should warm into the 60's in time for the weekend.
RAIN: Not a whole lot of that to talk about in this forecast, even though a semi-broken line of showers and thunderstorms formed and dropped some heavy rain on the Detroit metro area. Southern Macomb County is under an urban/small stream flood advisory through rush hour. You can see those storms headed off into Canada and points east on the Detroit NEXRAD...
 |
| Detroit NEXRAD Radar |
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: We're getting into the time of year where the severe threat tends to stay fairly low for a few days at a time. Typically, we find a "slight" risk on the map somewhere at least every two to three days, and they are in the Midwest, Great Plains, Dixie Alley, or Tornado Alley. Not so now. That will change as the seasons begin to morph from summer to fall, and we get unsettled weather again, as summer conditions fight to hang on in the face of the cold season arriving. The whole US is in a pretty quiet pattern, with no formal severe risk areas outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days, and just a few "see text" areas on their maps that mark low end 5% chances for wind and hail issues. That being said, all we need is a major pattern shift or a tropical system to make landfall someplace on the mainland, and then this regime goes out the window.
Sunshine and breezy here in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone at this hour, let's take a look at the forecast for you...
Tonight, mostly starry skies, with a few passing clouds nighttime low 50, winds die off and become calm, then SW to 5 MPH as daybreak approaches.
Wednesday, mostly sunny skies, warmer, high 79, winds SW calm to 5 MPH.
Wednesday night, skies remain mostly clear, maybe a couple of passing clouds, not quite as cool with lows rolling back to 53, winds SW 3-7 MPH.
Thursday, sunshine, some passing clouds later in the day, warmer, high 81, winds SW 4-9 MPH.
Thursday night, a mix of clouds and stars, low 55, winds S 3-7 MPH.
Friday, more sun than clouds, breezy and warmer, high 84, winds S 5-10 MPH.
Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a chance of a couple of scattered showers, perhaps a lonely thunderstorm, high 85.
Sunday, continued partly cloudy and warm, we still can't rule out a stray shower or storm, high 84.
Monday, partly sunny, not as warm, a chance at a widely scattered shower, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening! Blessings.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Quietly Warming...
Good Morning!
I must apologize in advance for the full forecast never getting posted yesterday (long story, don't ask). Some things needed to be addressed at home, and I had to focus on that. At any rate, we had a beautiful weekend with mostly sunny days and temperatures in the middle 70's. We will keep that trend going, then start to warm it up some, and add just a few more clouds to the mix. Let's pop the hood...
TEMPERATURES: Mild late-summer days continue here in Michigan, with a high amplitude ridge/trough setup over the US right now. Strong southerly flow and heat under the ridge in the Rockies and the Sun Belt, cool, dry air coming in from Canada under the trough that has the Midwest firmly in it's grasp for now. Daytime 70's and nighttime 50's for the next few days, but as we get closer to the weekend, the upper-air pattern changes and everything dampens out into a nearly straight west to east flow. When that happens, more summer-like readings return, with daytime highs back into the low to mid 80's.
RAIN: Things look fairly dry here in south central Michigan for the next five days. That being said, I do have to place a low chance of rain in the forecast for today. Any rain that does fall will be hit or miss, with plenty of space between showers. Here's what the National Weather Service is thinking regarding rain for the next five days...
Most areas pick up little, if any rainfall through Friday, and that looks reasonable based on the data for the next several days.
SEVERE WEATHER: According to the Storm Prediction Center, you won't see any up here in Michigan, just a risk of plain Jane thunderstorms today for the south zone of the blog. For my money, we'll see just spotty showers, but if any storms do get going, they will form, rain on you, make just a little noise and not have much lightning, then go away.
Radar is quiet, and the infrared satellite is clear...
I nearly forgot to mention that with the still air last night, some patchy fog is out there, and it can be dense in some areas, so use caution.
Here's the forecast for Jackson County...
Today, mainly sunny skies with a few clouds, an isolated shower or stray storm can't be ruled out, high 76, winds NW 3-7 MPH.
Tonight, starry skies, fog possible late, perhaps just a passing cloud, low 46, wind N calm to 4 MPH.
Tuesday, mostly sunny, warmer, high 78, winds turn SW 2-5 MPH.
Tuesday night, a couple of clouds, not quite as cool, low 51, wind SW calm to 5 MPH.
Wednesday, more sunshine than clouds, pleasant, high 78.
Thursday, continued partly to mostly sunny, high 80.
Friday, mainly clear, perhaps a few clouds, warmer, high 82.
Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, high 83.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Monday! Blessings.
I must apologize in advance for the full forecast never getting posted yesterday (long story, don't ask). Some things needed to be addressed at home, and I had to focus on that. At any rate, we had a beautiful weekend with mostly sunny days and temperatures in the middle 70's. We will keep that trend going, then start to warm it up some, and add just a few more clouds to the mix. Let's pop the hood...
TEMPERATURES: Mild late-summer days continue here in Michigan, with a high amplitude ridge/trough setup over the US right now. Strong southerly flow and heat under the ridge in the Rockies and the Sun Belt, cool, dry air coming in from Canada under the trough that has the Midwest firmly in it's grasp for now. Daytime 70's and nighttime 50's for the next few days, but as we get closer to the weekend, the upper-air pattern changes and everything dampens out into a nearly straight west to east flow. When that happens, more summer-like readings return, with daytime highs back into the low to mid 80's.
RAIN: Things look fairly dry here in south central Michigan for the next five days. That being said, I do have to place a low chance of rain in the forecast for today. Any rain that does fall will be hit or miss, with plenty of space between showers. Here's what the National Weather Service is thinking regarding rain for the next five days...
 |
| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: According to the Storm Prediction Center, you won't see any up here in Michigan, just a risk of plain Jane thunderstorms today for the south zone of the blog. For my money, we'll see just spotty showers, but if any storms do get going, they will form, rain on you, make just a little noise and not have much lightning, then go away.
Radar is quiet, and the infrared satellite is clear...
 |
| Infrared Satellite Image |
Here's the forecast for Jackson County...
Today, mainly sunny skies with a few clouds, an isolated shower or stray storm can't be ruled out, high 76, winds NW 3-7 MPH.
Tonight, starry skies, fog possible late, perhaps just a passing cloud, low 46, wind N calm to 4 MPH.
Tuesday, mostly sunny, warmer, high 78, winds turn SW 2-5 MPH.
Tuesday night, a couple of clouds, not quite as cool, low 51, wind SW calm to 5 MPH.
Wednesday, more sunshine than clouds, pleasant, high 78.
Thursday, continued partly to mostly sunny, high 80.
Friday, mainly clear, perhaps a few clouds, warmer, high 82.
Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, high 83.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Monday! Blessings.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY - SHIAWASSEE
The National Weather Service in Detroit has issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM. Still air last night allowed fog to form, and it can be dense, especially in low-lying areas. Use caution until the sun comes up and warms the air to burn it off!
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Quick Look - Sunday!
Good Morning!
Forecast discussion on the way, here's the RACECast for the Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway, and the outlook for today in Jackson...
Complete forecast on the way!
Forecast discussion on the way, here's the RACECast for the Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan International Speedway, and the outlook for today in Jackson...
Complete forecast on the way!
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