Burning the late night oil for a potentially busy day weather wise in Michigan after going through the first seasonably warm taste of Spring/ (maybe even summer) in the area yesterday, with highs in the upper 70's and low 80's throughout the blog area with plenty of sunshine! Changes are coming early tomorrow, and a chance of severe weather is in the mix as well. Let's pop the hood and see what's running under there...
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE: Right off, I need to tell you that the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the southern half of lower Michigan in a "Marginal" risk for severe weather tomorrow. The good news is that I don't expect any tornadic weather out of this.
Taking a look at the SPC Outlook (this is Day 2, it will update at 8 AM), you see the southern half of Lower Michigan, excluding the thumb, in the Marginal. Better chances for severe are just across the lake stretching from Chicago, back to places like Kansas City, Wichita, Oklahoma City, and down into Texas and points further southwest.
MORE SEVERE DETAIL: Forecast data shows an upper disturbance working though the northern half of the Lower Peninsula this morning, and consistent with that, any rain and such appears to be confined to areas north of a line from say, Muskegon to Saginaw, so your AM and PM drives should be OK. After dinner around the late news is the time to be concerned with. Let's look at another graphic...
Here's a look at the hi-res NAM forecast model. You can see that at 11 PM tomorrow, just a few thunderstorms between I-94 and I-96, and Detroit having a bit better concentration of them. The better chance for showers and storms will be just into the northern half of the Lower Peninsula, with a second shot of showers and storms working more into South Central Michigan pre-dawn Thursday. I still don't think we see anything tornadic, but we'll have to check the data as the day progresses.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS: The second hit of showers and storms will bring the more robust precipitation amounts into South Central Michigan. When we take a look at the precipitation map, we see...
The rain forecast thru Saturday, or Cinco De Mayo, is about 1.5", some spots will be locally higher or lower depending on storm track. Again, we'll need to look at the data and satellite and such tomorrow to get a better idea of how things will play out.
Here's the forecast:
Today - Early sun gives way to mainly cloudy skies, a pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out. High 82.
Tonight - Cloudy, developing showers and thunderstorms late, some could be strong or severe. Lows near 60.
Thursday - Cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, a bit cooler, with the high near 78.
Friday - Continued cloudy with scattered showers and perhaps a lingering storm or two. High 76.
Saturday - Clearing skies with some PM sunshine and seasonable. High 76.
Sunday - Cloudy skies, periods of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in spots. High only 64.
Monday - Sunny and seasonable. High 67.
I hope that you have a great Hump Day!
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