What a difference a few days makes! Back on Tuesday as we were about to tear off a page on the calendar, Mother Nature was tearing up other things with severe spring-like weather moving through the area. On the back side of that, back to snow and winter. Let's see what we have running under the hood....
QUICK SUMMARY OF 2/28 STORM ACTIVITY: There fortunately wasn't a whole lot of reported storm issues in South Central Michigan Tuesday night, but Southwest Michigan had three tornado reports - Three EF-1 confirmed tornadoes, one each in Niles and Dowagiac, and one out in open country south of M-60 and just west of Calvin Center road. No injuries or fatalities thank goodness! A few high wind reports along the southern tier of counties adjacent to the Indiana and Ohio borders, and a couple of hail reports in Hillsdale and Washtenaw counties. OK, now to the current stuff.
COLD WITH SOME SNOW: Not a whole lot to look at right now on radar or the satellite, but I will show you the visible image...
With winds from the northwest blowing across Lake Michigan, you see the cloud banding typically associated with lake effect snow on the lee side of the lake over in the snow box toward Grand Rapids. Fortunately there's nothing falling right now. Temperatures plenty cold in the area, all sub-freezing right now...
Plenty of mainly cloudy skies and the "warm" spots are 26 degrees in Jackson, Marshall, and near Coldwater at Branch Co. Airport. Current winds are pushing wind chills into the single digits as well. Talk about cold!
CHANGES COMING: The good news is the upper-air pattern we're in is progressive, so we won't have to mess with this wintry mess for too long before we get some relief. This will come in the form of a ridge that is currently out west over the Rockies and western High Plains tracking east, shutting off some of the bitterly cold air that we have been messing with and warming temperatures up some. We'll see readings recover into the upper 40's low 50's for Tuesday and Wednesday!
THERE'S A CATCH: The warmer weather comes at the expense of rain, and quite a bit of it, working into the area. Have a look at these maps:
Here's the GFS FutureCast map for 1 AM EST Tuesday the 7th. You see a well-organized 971 millibar low just north of the Canada border, and out ahead of the cold front, plenty of rain. You'll also want to be prepared for temperatures to make a run for the cellar again after that cold front sweeps through! Fortunately though, I do not expect a big rain to snow changeover event after that gets in and through here.
COLD AIR STILL AROUND: The next break in the cold as it stands right now after what I discussed above appears to be in the Thursday to Friday time frame, as another ridge pushes into the area and brings us back up toward 50's territory. My concern with that is a surface low that forecast data is suggesting will track across northern half of lower Michigan could bring some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two with it, then we head for freezing again after that.
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: Still a ways away to lock this in, but the general pattern amongst the forecast model data seems to be fairly changeable, with mild spells that will bring readings in the mid 40's to 50's spaced out roughly every 3 days. You'll see some rain associated with those, and then as the cold front moves through, some snow and colder conditions on the back side, which is more typical of the bigger weather pattern reset as meteorological Spring takes hold.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:
Today - Mainly sunny and cold, high near 31.
Tonight - Starry skies and cold, lows roll back to near 10.
Saturday - A mix of clouds and sunshine and a touch milder, high 33.
Sunday - Increasing clouds and milder, with highs climbing to 51.
Monday - Cloudy skies with rain, an embedded thundershower is possible too, high 56.
Tuesday - Partly cloudy skies and cooler, a couple of lingering showers possible in the morning as highs stretch to get to 50.
Wednesday - Sunny skies and colder, high 44.
Thursday - Periods of clouds and sunshine, warming some, high 53.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, and I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
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