Far too long since I have actually sat down and forecast for you, let's correct that today. There's some potential severe weather in the offing, followed by a sharp change to fall-like conditions on the back side of it all. It does make sense, because Meteorological Fall started on Labor Day! Here we go...
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY: We'll see temperatures into the 70's throughout the area today with west-southwest breezes and increasing clouds as the day progresses. Don't be shocked to see the afternoon clouds bring a stray shower or lonely storm through the area, especially south of I-96. I expect any rain that does fall to be gone by late tonight/pre-dawn Wednesday. We note severe weather off to the west of us today, with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) having a "slight" risk up for part of 8 states, with all of Iowa involved, as well as the states that touch Iowa. Here's the map for that:
ROUGH WEATHER TOMORROW: Taking a look at forecast data, first thing of note is that the SPC "slight" risk has shifted east, and includes basically all of lower Michigan. The culprits responsible are: 1) A fast moving bona fide surface low that is starting out today in eastern Colorado, intensifying while it's tracking northwest to roughly the Illinois/Wisconsin line by tomorrow morning. We'll be re-checking that to see if it will indeed be there as more forecast data rolls in today. 2) An unusually strong polar air mass is digging into the mix from north of the border. These guys look to phase up nicely as the whole thing approaches Michigan tomorrow, setting the stage for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with some severe ones being a good bet.
WILDCARDS: Computer models are still debating a couple of details that play into the forecast; namely track and timing. There's enough spread that it introduces a bit of uncertainty into the mix. The GFS is being a bit more aggressive for us here, meaning he's bringing the low closer to south central Michigan, and bringing it this way faster. The 5 PM futurecast map off the GFS has the low parked over roughly Muskegon. The same map off the NAM futurecast is slower, it has the low parked over Green Bay. That will make a definite difference in what plays out here. We'll watch it and see if any consensus shows up the next 12 hours or so. You can safely expect increasing humidity and warmer temperatures ahead of the main storm system rolling in. How much storm-friendly air we get in tonight and tomorrow will determine how rough things get and how far south it comes.
TAIL END OF THE WEEK: After the showers and storms get out of here tomorrow night and pre-dawn Thursday, a definite fall feel, as we stay in the mid 60's for daytime highs with variably cloudy skies. Friday night football will definitely feel like it should. I don't expect any storm related issues like last Friday night, that canceled a slew of games and had teams coming out on Saturday to play!
The next credible threat for rain will be late Friday night into Saturday, as an upper impulse works through that could touch off some showers.
Here's the forecast:
Today: Increasing clouds, becoming breezy, high 80. Wind SE 3-7 MPH increasing to SW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Cloudy, some spots could see an isolated shower or lonely storm, lows near 64. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday: Cloudy, humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing around lunchtime and continuing through the afternoon, becoming numerous by evening. Some could be severe, with strong wind and heavy rains. High 81. Wind WSW 8-16 MPH.
Wednesday Night: Cloudy early, showers and thunderstorms gradually taper off after midnight, much cooler, lows near 54. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
Thursday: Cloudy, much cooler, high 63.
Friday: Partly sunny, cooler still, high 60.
Saturday: Cloudy, a few isolated showers possible early, then clearing, a bit warmer. High 66.
Sunday: Mixed sunshine, continued fall-like, high 66.
Monday: Partly sunny, high 69.
There's your forecast, I hope you have a great day! Keep checking here, Twitter @wxMikeD, or the Facebook fan page for updates on this developing weather situation!
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