Not A Lot Of Changes...

Good Morning!

More mixed sunshine in the area as the pattern that we have been in for the last several days persists.  Let's take a closer look:

UPPER AIR STANDING PAT:  Taking a look at the upper air maps this morning, the ridge west trough east setup is still there and not going to move much.  We'll continue to have a few disturbances working through the big picture, but the main focus will be the popcorn thunderstorms that occur during the afternoon and evening as daytime heating of the ground creates localized pockets of instability.  If you look at the current surface temperature map, you can use the 65 degree line as a general guideline to see what I mean...

Still no massive heat waves in the offing.  We have been fortunate this summer with the amount of cool weather we have experienced, and I still am not seeing any major heating in the cards.  Temperatures in this part of the world average right around 82, and we'll stay in that range.  An 85 or two is possible with some sunshine tomorrow and perhaps into early next week, but that's about it!

NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  With that being said, don't be shocked if you see me post for a severe thunderstorm warning somewhere in the blog.  The last few days have been conducive to strong or even severe storms on a localized scale, thanks to buoyant surface warmed air rising into the cooler upper air.  These things starts showing up about 2 PM on the radar, they pop up, start moving, and they bring gusty wind and small hail with them.  They rain themselves out then dissipate.  No risk areas given by the Storm Prediction Center, just general thunderstorm chances the next three days for the lower 48.

RAINFALL:  Very dry here in Michigan over the next 5 days, with most areas expected to only pick up a half-inch of rain on the high side.

Looking further away, the monsoon pattern continues in the Interior West and the Rockies.  Many two to three inch bullseyes in that part of the nation!  Too bad that pattern can't be shifted just a little bit west to sweep more of California into the rain!  They are in such a profound drought and desperately need it!

LOOKING AHEAD:

And here's my forecast for South Central Michigan:

The Six Day Planner looks fairly dry in most places, at least until the end of the week:

There's the forecast and the details.  I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.