Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Fall Preview Continues...Milder Weather In Sight

Good Morning!

A primarily gray day as we head into lunchtime here in Michigan!  Plenty of clouds and cool temperatures for the masses:


If you're looking for 70 or better you have to head all the way to Grand Rapids or Ypsilanti before you find them!

COOL PATTERN CONTINUES:  All of the major players from yesterday are still more or less in their same positions.  As you'd expect, that means the weather stays fairly constant.  Ridging west, trough east that is sagging well down into the Tennessee valley, bringing unusually cool weather to much of the world that is typically baking this time of the year.  Here's a look at the national temperatures:


The upper low north of us in Canada is parked and rotating, pulling cool Canadian down here on it's rear flank.  I don't expect that thing to move a whole lot over the next day or so, therefore I don't see and huge changes to the pattern.  We will see the heat that is bottled up out west nudging as it wants to come this way, but all indications are that it will be held off.  The good news there is no serious heat returning for awhile.  We'll make it back to seasonable levels, sure, but nothing scorching in the cards 9at this moment.

PESKY RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS:  Another dimension to this setup is the low end rain probabilities that stick with us for the next several days.  Have a look at the Storm Prediction Center maps...


Because of how everything is set, we can't shake the chance of some afternoon instability touching off some showers or even an isolated thunderstorm.  Nothing widespread, these will be hit and miss, more miss.  A smaller percentage of those areas that do see rain could see thunderstorms that may hide some pea to dime-sized hail.  Aside from that, highest chances of any one spot getting wet top out at three in ten.  Look at this graphic:

From 3 until about 7 or 8 PM, the Hi-res NAM forecast model likes some light showers in this area, with heavier activity off to the north.  I don't really think the radar will look exactly like this at 3 PM, but know that some raindrops are expected.

NOT A LOT OF RAIN HERE:  Let's have a look at the Weather Prediction Center 5 Day Rain Forecast:

As you can see, even with all the clouds and such that I expect to hang around like a bad cold, there's not much rain in them.  Only about a half-inch of rain on the high side expected in this part of the world through Saturday.

With all of that out of the way...


And here's the forecast:




And the extended outlook:


I hope you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings.

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