Cloudy, Sticky, Stormy...

Good Morning!

ANOTHER DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK:  The Storm Prediction Center has us in the standard "slight" risk category for severe thunderstorms today and tonight.  Have a look at the forecast map:

There are strong storms going on to the north and west of the blog area at this hour.  Here's a look at Tru-Track Doppler radar...

Here you see the storms in the state.  They are moving due east, and have history of strong wind and up to ping-pong ball sized hail.  The wild card today will be the amount of sun we see.  The conditions are more or less in place for strong to severe storms with straight-line wind and hail as the primary threats.  Less sun means less robust storms.  While I can't say the tornado risk is truly zero, I can say that I do not see much in the way of shear to spin the storms we do get and coax them into producing tornadoes right now.  That setup is found across the lake in Wisconsin.

STILL SULTRY AND STICKY:  It will be another muggy one in South Central Michigan today as dewpoint values again are already into the 60's, and in some cases, even 70.  Sturgis is reporting a dewpoint of 72 at this hour!  The good news is that the temperatures shouldn't approach the 90 that I posted in the Six Day Planner previously, as cooler air has filtered into the region.  That and cloud cover will help keep readings down.  We'll keep this moist air around right through the weekend, but I do expect it to become less damp as Friday and Saturday roll in.

CHANCES OF RAIN INTO NEXT WEEK:  Looking at forecast model data this morning I'm seeing the typical summer weather pattern shaping up.  Scattered showers with the occasional thunderstorm for variety right into Monday.  That doesn't mean that any day will be a washout (it shouldn't be), but it does mean that tossing an umbrella in the car is a smart call.  The bright blue skies that we enjoyed over race weekend will likely not be back before then.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES:  Looking down the line, temperatures come down, back to seasonal levels.  Most places in the blog should be about 80-82 this time of year, and I expect things to run right around there.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Rives Junction:

Today - Mainly cloudy, some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon, some could be severe.  High 83.  Wind ESE 6-12 MPH.

Tonight - Continued cloudy with more periods of showers and thunderstorms.  Lows near 68.  Wind ESE turning SW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday - Clouds don't really go anywhere, some widely scattered to scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two, especially in the afternoon.  High 80.  Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Friday - A few more peeks of sun than before, still mostly cloudy with some PM showers and an occasional storm, high 81.

Saturday - Very gradual clearing means partly sunny skies, a touch warmer, high 83.

Sunday - A mix of clouds and sun, continued seasonable and pleasant, high 82.

There's what's cooking in South Central Michigan right now, I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.