Another Brief Hit Of Cold, Wintry Weather...

Good Morning!

Open a window and savor the mild air while you can.  It won't be here when you head home from work this evening, and flakes will fly tonight.  Yes, I said flakes.  Definitely time for a deeper dive to see what's going on...

HELLO COLD FRONT:  Old Man Winter refuses to go quietly.  Here he is again, giving us a Bronx Cheer as plenty of chilly air dives into the US from Canada.  Here's a look at the current temperatures, and I think you can pretty clearly see where the cold is...

Blues and pinks/purples are freezing and below.  Pinks/purples are near 0 degrees F.  Aqua/green and all other colors are above freezing, with yellows and oranges in the 60-70 degree range.

That's a winter-like setup if I've ever seen one!  Truly a big-time trough/ridge look over the US.  Before we continue, I have to say one thing before we get into the details:  leading up to this, people asked me "Mike, is it true that we're gonna get snow Tuesday?"  Originally I said "...no, I'm not seeing that."  Clearly I have to say that I was wrong.  Why?  The low pressure system associated with our cold front that's working through as I write intensified and is stronger than I thought it would get.  The forecast models latched onto this idea early Saturday, and kept it in focus since.  I was hoping the models were being too ambitious and over-forecasting the strength of the system. Unfortunately, this time they got hold to a solution that looks to verify in spades.  Moving on...

WINDY AS ALL GET OUT:  The steep temperature gradient means some strong winds as the frontal system works through.  On the warm side, temperatures are in the 60's with southwest winds. On the back side of the front, strong northwest winds with temperatures in the 30's.  If you look at my Twitter activity (@wxMikeD) or earlier posts here, you can see the break point clearly defined.  Winds are in the 30-40 MPH range with some gusts even higher than that.  Lenawee and Washtenaw counties are under a High Wind Warning until noon.

BRING ON THE SNOW:  I really hate even typing that word, after the winter we have had, but yes, we'll see some light snow this evening and through tonight.  I don't really expect any accumulation, but I'll have to keep an eye on that.  I'm sure you'll notice it on cars and grassy surfaces as the mercury plummets during the day today.  The good news is that after tomorrow, we shouldn't have to worry about any more snow flakes for awhile.  The rest of the forecast window looks seasonably mild.

Looking at computer data, we should be cold enough to support snow after 6 PM, with perhaps the best chance of snow between 8 PM and 4 AM Tuesday morning.  I'm going to go with the high side of this event being about 2" locally in spots.  This is a very tricky forecast setup, and I'm basing that number on the idea of little accumulation until late tonight as air temperatures fall into the 20's.  Beyond that, suffice it to say that I have less than normal confidence in this forecast, so we'll need to wait and see.

FAIRLY QUICK DEPARTURE:  The good news is that this cold snap doesn't stay around very long, and neither does the snow/sleet/slush that it generates.  We warm somewhat toward our upper 50's seasonal averages for mid week, then cool a bit for the weekend, into the upper 40's lower 50's.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Rives Junction: (Note - don't yell at me about the 64.  That was a pre-dawn temperature at the airport, before the cold front's advance was being felt across the area.  A more "traditional" high for today would be something along the lines of 58 and falling!)

Here's the extended outlook for the rest of the week.  At least we don't get super chilly again after the next couple of days elapse...

That's a look at your forecast, I do hope that you have a wonderful rest of your Monday.  Stay warm tonight!  Blessings.