Winter Is On...Snow Machine Cranking Up...

Good Morning!

Old Man Winter has us firmly in his clutches now, and it doesn't look like he will be letting go anytime in the next few days.  Plenty of icy air from Canada in the area.  Let's have a look and see what we can expect:

YOU SAID THE BITTER COLD WOULDN'T GET US - WHAT HAPPENED? - I busted on that part of my forecast.  More specifically, I didn't account for the trough that we are in diving as far south into the US as it has.  There's nothing but Arctic air behind it, plain and simple.  Have a look at the surface readings around the nation:

Old Man Winter is sharing the cold stuff with most of the nation!

While we won't see air temperatures drop into the sub-zero range, the wind chills will make up for that.  Additionally, the snow on the ground here and northwest of us won't help matters much either.  It will chill any milder air that tries to make it this way, and that's a pattern that should hold for awhile.

HOW MUCH MORE SNOW CAN WE EXPECT? - In a word, it depends on where you are.  If you're in or traveling toward the snow box, you can expect fairly steady accumulating lake effect snow for the next few days.  Inland, we stand to pick up about an inch, perhaps two, between now and Friday.  Forecast model data indicates this big cold trough isn't going anywhere.  There's some bubbles of high pressure that will be steered through the larger upper air flow, and in between those, some upper disturbances working through -- Alberta Clippers.  If we were still in the warm season, these disturbances would cloud you up and touch off some scattered showers.  This time of year, they bring you some light snow, and typically you get at least a bit of accumulation out of them.

The day I'm keeping an eye on is Saturday, as we get low pressure coming out of north Texas and tracking fairly due east until it gets near the Appalachians, where it hangs a dogleg left.  That thing looks to bring some sustained snow to south central Michigan, adding up to a couple to four inches in many spots.  Have a look at the Weather Prediction Center 5 Day precipitation forecast...

This map is good thru 7 AM Sunday Morning.  Don't be shocked to see the totals climb some.

WPC only likes a half-inch of liquid precipitation between now and Sunday, but for my money, I really think that figure increases as we get closer to the weekend, making snow totals go up as well.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND:  Once we get through the weekend, more cold weather until perhaps Tuesday, when models say a pattern reset is in order, bringing us back up to temperatures around freezing as we finally turn the freezer down some, even if we can't shut the door for awhile.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Leslie and Napoleon:

Have a wonderful day!  Blessings.