Cold & Quiet...

Good Afternoon!

Forecaster Mike here looking at things as we run up to Thanksgiving and the start of the 2013 Holiday season.  One thing is for sure - COLD!  I mean plenty of it too!  Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there.

COLD ENOUGH TO...WELL IT'S JUST COLD:  I can't say it any more plainly than that.  Average temperature this time of this in this corner of the world is right about 40 degrees.  Good luck seeing anything close to that until this weekend.  What's going on?  I'll show you:

This map represents what the atmosphere is doing up where the jets play, around 18,000 feet high.  In this graphic you see where I have marked the freeze line at (the 540).  We are on the south side of it, but it doesn't matter.  Pacific breezes coming on-shore out west get shunted way north to get around a high pressure center in the Plains, and as they get over the hump, they come sliding back out of Canada as a Canadian Special...cold polar air being blown in here on northwest winds.  Long story short, the freezer door is wide open and the blower is turned up high - at least aloft.  This pattern remains locked in with little change until closer to the weekend.  That brings me to the next graphic:

This is the GFS computer model forecast for Friday at 4 PM.  It's another winds aloft and pressure map, same 500 millibar (18,000 feet) flavor.  See how everything has flattened out as far as how the winds up there are blowing?  It's not being chilled as much by being forced north.  This is called zonal flow.  It'll be a bit milder as it has a largely unimpeded run from onshore out west to us, except for climbing the Rockies.  This solution looks good at this point, but I caution you that this is ONE model and ONE snapshot.  I could be giving you a totally different forecast later in the week.  This allows us to get to the north side of freezing temperature wise and stay there for a bit.  Here's the current surface temperature map:

WHAT ABOUT TURKEY DAY MIKE?:  From the perch here right now, Thanksgiving looks to be variably cloudy with perhaps a chance of a few snowflakes, I don't see any real accumulation.  There is a storm brewing for Thanksgiving, but that looks to be a concern for mainly the Deep South and Mid-Atlantic states.

ANY SNOW TO BE CONCERNED WITH?:  Not really.  Between now and Saturday, I'm only seeing tomorrow afternoon/evening and Thursday afternoon as the best chances to get snow that might amount to anything.  Here's the Weather Prediction Center's take on precipitation...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast through Saturday

That being said, until we get these winds spun around some other direction than northwest, those pesky lake effect snows could send a wave or two of snow inland, giving us flurries or a dusting.  I still think that lake effect snow will be an ongoing deal in the snow box, the area bounded by the lakeshore, I-94, US-131, and I-96.

NO MAJOR STORMS IN THE OFFING RIGHT NOW:  Looking ahead, it appears that we finish November on a fairly quiet note, then the first week of December, computer modeling indicates a sizable storm system that would surely impact Michigan.

Now that all the basics are covered, here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Rives Junction:

Tonight, mainly cloudy, some flurries or even light snow possible.  Continued frigid.  Low 14, wind chills near zero with NW winds 7-12 MPH.

Monday, mainly cloudy, a stray snowflake or brief period of light snow cannot be ruled out.  Not quite as cold, high 31.  Winds NW 6-12 MPH will hold wind chills in the mid 20's.

Monday night, continued cloudy, again, not as cold as Sunday, lows near 22.  NW winds 5-10 will keep wind chills in the mid teens.

Tuesday, cloudy, seasonably cold, high 34.

Wednesday, more clouds than sunshine, not much change in temperature, high 31.

Thanksgiving, cloudy and cold, high right at freezing.

Friday, some clearing, a touch milder, high 34.

Saturday, partly cloudy, high 40.

That's the forecast, have a wonderful week!  Blessings.