Fireworks Between Showers This Holiday...

Good Evening!

While everyone is basically asleep, I have the chance to look at some weather data uninterrupted.  The pattern isn't really breaking all that much, but winds have shifted and temperature readings will start coming up during the day.  The good news is....

THE 4TH IS LOOKING DRY:  Both the GFS and NAM computer forecast models have come around to the solution that we'll have some showers and such that may linger early on into the 4th, but by midday we should be dry, and we that should into the night so I don't think we'll need to worry about any washed out fireworks displays.  About the only thing that will happen through the 4th is the roadblock high out over the Atlantic will retrograde (back up) somewhat and as it does, we get more waves rotating through the broader flow pattern which brings...

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SUCH THIS WEEKEND:  Thanks to that high retrograding west, we'll see more of what we have seen the last several days.  Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms in periods throughout the area, and each day has a three or four in ten chance of any one spot getting wet.  And no, I can't give you precise arrival windows for these things.  The models are still not very sure, as one has them earlier in the day, another is closer to dusk, and a third has them early to mid-afternoon, so we will leave that go for the moment and revisit it later.  The WPC says about a half-inch or so through Monday, but I think some spots will see more than that, because the models don't do all that well with the setup for popcorn showers and storms.  I can say that by Tuesday, it looks like the Westerlies will have control of the upper air pattern and that means we'll see more typical summer weather, including rain coming from the west half of the compass instead of the east as...

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MICHIGAN:  When the blocking pattern finally gives way to regular zonal flow, that frees up everything to start moving east, and that includes the heat that has been bottled up in the Interior West for the last several days.  Good news, it will not be as scorching.  With the block removed, the wind doesn't have to go way south to come back into the US.  This will have a more Pacific feel to it, tempering the heat somewhat.  Temps here top out at 86 for the weekend and into next week according to the forecast models, but that will feel hot considering how cool we have been the last several days.

LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD:  Temperatures in the middle 80's with hit and miss showers until Wednesday, which, for the moment, looks to be pretty wet for South Central Michigan.  Of course, that could change on the next model run, but we'll see how things shape up and go with scattered to numerous showers and some thunder for a week out, with highs hanging tough in the mid 80's and lows in the mid 60's.

We'll have a forecast for you later.  Have a good night!