Cool To Start - Clouds For the 4th...

Good Morning!

Unseasonably cool air in the area at this hour as we are in the base of a trough that is pulling colder air down from Canada.  We'll stay in it the next couple of days and also have a chance at some showers and thunderstorms to boot.  Let's take a closer look:

COOL THRU TUESDAY, THEN WARMING FOR THE FOURTH:  A big west ridge/east trough setup continues to dominate across the nation right through the Fourth Of July.  Average highs this time of year in South Central Michigan run right around 83, and we'll be below that pretty much through the weekend, but things do get more seasonable as the week progresses.  Two really cool days where we don't get out of the 70's for today and tomorrow, but we're looking at highs right around 80 for the holiday and on into weekend, with the GFS suggesting 80 for Wednesday, then gradually ticking up to 85 for Sunday.

A FAIRLY CLOUDY FOURTH:  While temperatures will be back in the seasonable range, sunshine will be in short supply for the holiday.  The upside to that is you shouldn't have to worry about any heavy-duty sunburn.  Nighttime fireworks viewing should be fine, with cloudy skies, but a high enough cloud deck to not hamper fireworks shows.  The odd thing is you may want something with some sleeves on it to wear for your fireworks, as lows will be flirting with the 60 mark for the evenings!

SCATTERED SHOWERS & STORMS STICK AROUND:  The trough we are under has a surface low in the base of it, and that thing had some showers backing into the area from the northeast yesterday.  It was kind of different to see storms approach from the eastern half of the compass on radar, and we may see some of those yet again today.  Nothing severe to mention, as SPC has us just in the general risk for Plain Jane storms, and I don't expect to see anything much further north than say, I-96, so Clinton and Shiawasee counties should stay pretty dry.  I say pretty because we still have the elements in place to trigger a few airmass showers or thunderstorms today.  The I-94 corridor and points south should plan on some shower activity.  Let's have a look at what the Weather Prediction Center thinks regarding rain for the next several days:

Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Forecast

About half to three-quarters of an inch, far southeast Michigan may see more than that.  This map is somewhat misleading, as the rain will be of the hit and miss variety, and any one spot has, at best, an even money shot at precipitation.  Let's have a look at the TruTrack Doppler Radar composite:

TruTrack Doppler Radar with Satellite Image layered on it - all quiet in Michigan right now!

Plenty of clouds in the area and not much rain, I expect that regarding rain to change for this afternoon and evening as we get a little bit more heating.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Not much change in the patterns as discussed above until we get into Friday.  Upper air patterns start to reset somewhat and that blistering heat that is baking the Intermountain West finally puts the plow blade on and starts pushing it's way in here for the new week.  The good news is the ridging stays fairly flat, indicating that we won't start baking as they have.  Some high pressure in the southeast and off in the Atlantic will allow upper disturbances to keep working through the area or close enough to brush us with some showers and such.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Rives Junction:

I will have an update and extended forecast thru the weekend up for you later today.  Have a great one!