With last night's severe weather event behind us, we can turn our attention to the next few days here in South Central Michigan, and the best way to describe it is cooler and much more comfortable. Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have going on:
TEMPERATURES: As we get closer to the weekend, we'll see temperatures trending down, along with humidity values. The upper air flow over Michigan will reset itself into a definite ridge/trough setup across the CONUS. Hot, hot and heated out west, the Desert Southwest will certainly live up to it's name, with temperatures pushing 110 or better! On this side of the nation, that high amplitude pattern allows cool, refreshing troughing to settle in as you work your way east out of the High Plains. Average high temperature should be around 82 this time of the year, and the GFS forecast model is suggesting that after Friday, we don't see 80 again until a week from today! Here's a look at the current temps around the nation. This pattern soon resets:
I'm thinking 82 for tomorrow, then the backtracking of the readings starts. We'll take it. I did say that the cooler conditions are the result of a nice trough setting up. Because of that, among other things, we do have to mention some...
RAIN: Before we discuss this, let me set the record straight on one thing I have learned and seen as forecaster in training: We are in the midst of the summer in the Midwest, and as such, scattered afternoon hit & run showers and thunderstorms are a fact of life. Something else that's a fact, is that computer forecast models, for all of the great assistance they can lend in building a forecast for your day, quite frankly, drop the ball when it comes to this kind of pop-up random shower and storm activity. The qualities of the air around us that dictate the formation of these storms is often missed. Put another way, the microscope isn't strong enough to see and discern the small things you'd have to see to nail a storm forecast in the warm season.
Now that I'm done ranting, here's the deal - today through Saturday, you can expect some mainly PM scattered showers, or possibly an isolated storm 3 or 4 times out of 10 at any given point in the blog, typically after about 4 PM. This evening you'll see some widely scattered to scattered showers or a storm, those will linger but should be about done by morning rush Thursday. Periods of clouds and sunshine with some fairly moist air should generate another round of scattered showers and such tomorrow evening. We may increase the chances of showers and storms, I want to see one more model run, as guidance is indicating that a surface low pops up in the eastern half of Ohio and tracks due east. That will bring us some rain for sure. Let's look at what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking about rain for the next several days:
Plenty of rain in the offing the next week, around two inches here, more as you go east. Let's look at another image. This is a reflectivity forecast off the Hi-Res NAM computer model. In other words, this is what the radar may look like this evening:
As you can see, showers and thunderstorms are afoot.
The good news is that we don't expect a huge outbreak of...
SEVERE WEATHER: We keep just the risk for garden-variety storms around for the next few days, we do note that sever potential is just across Lake Michigan, through Wisconsin and Illinois. Milwaukee, Madison, Chicago, Rockford, Bloomington-Normal are just some of the cities in the mix for that potential rough weather.
Now with all of that out of the way, here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:
And looking ahead as we ramp up to the 4th Of July...
There's a look at your forecast for the next several days, I do hope that you have a great Hump Day! Blessings.
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