Clear & Chilly...

Good Morning!

With some available time to sit and feed the blog, time to catch up on what's been happening and let you know what to expect as we head into the weekend, the last one of unofficial Spring.

Some strong and severe weather has moved through the last couple of days as you know, more so in west and northern lower Michigan than through the area the blog covers.  We finally got some of that yesterday, with some strong to severe thunderstorm activity.  I drove through what I am fairly certain was outflow related to a severe storm in Lenawee county yesterday.  Winds were up around 40-50 MPH and small limbs were down on US-127 southeast of Jackson.  We don't expect any more rough weather, but it will be unseasonably cold for the next couple of days.  Let's take a deeper dive and see why:

TEMPERATURES:  The upper wave that aided and abetted our storms, helping them become severe over the last couple of days is finally moving off to the east, as is the base of a trough.  All of the wind is coming from the north half of the compass for the next day or two, and with upper air dynamics as they are, the door is cracked for some chilly polar air to filter all the way down here from northern Canada.  If you recall the seven day outlook, I predicted clearing for the tail end of the week and temperatures back into the 60's.  The clearing is delayed and temperatures will be cooler than forecast earlier.  You'll need a jacket for overnight and early morning, as temps the next two days will be just a touch above freezing for the lows.  Let's have a look at the current surface temperature map to see where we stand...

US Surface Temperature Plot

You can see the cold air out west, that's connected with a heavy duty cold-core upper low spinning in the Pacific Northwest. Here in Michigan, you see the red freezing line just across the border, indicating freezing temperatures lurking.  In fact, the northern half of the state is under a Frost Advisory for tonight.  No, that is not a typo.  A Frost Advisory in late May!  The GFS computer model is suggesting we dip into the mid 30's during the overnight hours, and highs top out right around 60 for the next couple of days as well.  As the trough moves away, we fall under the influence of high pressure, with a ridge building in.  That brings us back up to seasonal levels as we get closer to Memorial Day.  Temperatures should be below the average which is right around 74 until almost mid week next week, then we get back into seasonable upper 70's or lower 80's.

RAIN:  After we get through today and tonight, rain chances are virtually nil for the weekend and right on until next Tuesday, and even then, from the perch right now, that will be a low probability, just the mention of a stray shower or two.  Here's a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Map

As you can see, not a lot of rain expected the next several days here, I say the bulk of what's showing here is in the next 12-24 hours.  The seven day map shows rain totals just over an inch, but my confidence is low in that solution at this point.  We'll see if that holds up.  If it does, then we're looking at a possibly wet Memorial Day weekend.

SEVERE WEATHER:  After being in a "slight" risk box the last few days, the next three should be quiet in the blog area, as we will be under the influence of high pressure.  That being said, I will show you the day one risk map for today from the Storm Prediction Center...

SPC Day 1 Severe Outlook, valid through 8 AM Friday morning.

SPC has the extreme southwest part of Oklahoma and north central Texas under the gun today, with moderate risk of severe weather.  I personally hope this doesn't verify, they have had enough severe weather in that part of the world for quite awhile!

Satellite showing plenty of cloud cover in the area, but if you look, clear skies to the northwest, we should be seeing those late this evening and into tomorrow.  Also - some gravity wave clouds in Wisconsin and northern Michigan:

Visible Satellite Image

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar showing some showers about in the area...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar

And here's the forecast:

Today, cloudy, unseasonably cool, a few showers move through that should be gone by nightfall or shortly thereafter, high only 57.  Wind NW 7-14 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy to start but clouds thinning, unseasonably cold, lows all the way down to 36.  Wind N 5-10 MPH.

Friday, sunny, cool, high 63.  Wind N 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, clear and cold, lows near 34.  Wind N 3-6 MPH.

Saturday, sunny, pleasantly cool, high 68.

Sunday, continued sunny and pleasant, high 69.

Monday, clouds increase during the day, not much change in temperature, high 68.

Tuesday, cloudy, warmer, a chance of a few scattered showers, high 76.

Wednesday, mainly cloudy, maybe a peek or two of sun, still the chance of a stray shower or two, high 80.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great day!  Blessings.