Thoughts On Post Hump-Day....

Hello!

You have to love (or hate) that lake effect snow.  Some heavy snow bands moved through the area overnight, leaving us with an inch or better in most places on the blog.  That has been replaced with partly sunny skies, but we aren't quite done with the snow just yet; more flurries or light snow moving through.

DARNED FLAKES:  Cold Canadian air in place with northwesterly flow off the warmer waters of Lake Michigan means...you guessed it. SNOW.  We'll have some around today in fits and starts, though overall it will diminish with time.  I expect just a few flurries hanging on by evening drive and into the nighttime hours.  We should finally get out the snow for a bit tonight and into tomorrow.  Not so fast though - three upper waves move through between now and Tuesday PM, and each one gives us crack at some additional snow.

IT DOESN'T FEEL SPRING-ISH:  I agree, and unfortunately, that's the pattern that we stay in for the next few days.  A trough has done some heavy-duty digging from the northwest and is good and entrenched here, I don't see anything that will move it out of here until next week.  Forecast models do suggest the upper-level trough flattens out some this weekend and into next week, with more zonal flow, winds turning more due west.  This will help A TAD with temperature, it also will dial back the lake-effect snow machine.  From the perch here, Monday looks like the first day after Thursday with any real opportunity to get a decent foothold on some 40 degree readings, and I expect them to stick around for just awhile, then back into the winter-like readings until next Friday.

SNOW & SUCH:  I said three upper waves move through between now and next week.  Number one comes through tomorrow afternoon.  Over the last couple of forecast model runs, that thing has gotten increasingly ragged and wimpy.  My take on it is cloudy skies, maybe a flurry or two, west and closer to the lake, the snow machine may fire up again with just some light snow.  I really don't think that one gives us a problem.  Upper wave two looks much more organized, and I fully expect it to touch off some snow for us on Friday, heavier amounts north and west.  Right now, anytime after lunch looks ripe for some snowfall, and some portion of the evening drive is very likely to be impacted.  I'm thinking 1-3" in this part of the world, and points north around the I-96 corridor could see 3" or more of new snow.  Wave three, Monday afternoon.  That one is a bit more problematic to forecast as we'll be right around freezing, so this early in the game, all modes of precipitation are possible.  I'll have a better idea as time goes on.

More To Come...