Thursday, February 21, 2013

Clouds, Wintry Precipitation...Rewind & Replay

Hello Again...

We did get a touch of the partial clearing I forecast yesterday...in a few spots for a couple of hours.  I'm thinking that forecast should technically be a bust because it wasn't as widespread as I figured it would be.  Thanks Mother Nature...

SUMMARY:  Today, clouds throughout the area and northerly winds keep us good and cold, with wind chills down in the teens or single digits as well.  Temperatures start to rebound some on Friday, with readings above freezing for the first time in a few days, and climbing from there.  If the GFS forecast model has it right, we see temperatures in the low 40's early next week.  I am concerned about what the temperature data is saying, because if clouds stay in place as multiple models are saying they should, current forecast temperature solutions may be a little too generous.

PRECIPITATION:  Forecast data has gone back and forth the last few days, now that Friday is knocking on the door, we have the temperature part of the puzzle locked down...sort of.  My take?  Snow, with a touch of a wintry mix for the most part starting Friday morning sometime between 4 and 9 AM, working in from southwest to northeast.

Temperatures will be below freezing at the surface, but they get closer to 32 a little bit above ground.  Anything that falls out of the clouds should be fairly frozen, but the trip down to earth will take care of what isn't.  You may see some icing of roadways too, so please allow a bit of extra driving time tomorrow.  As we get into the day, temperatures warm to 33-35 degrees, so that's where your wintry mix comes in as not completely frozen precipitation hits ground that is sub-freezing and ices up.  By the weekend, some freezing rain in the mix as well, so a bit of everything in the mix that's frozen.  Clouds Saturday and Sunday, not much in the way of precipitation, but we'll add a mention of some light rain or a wintry mix again on Monday.

Radar is all quiet in Michigan, the lake-effect snow machine is switched off for the time being, and nothing on the infrared satellite close by except a big expanse of flat stratus - typical winter cloud pattern...


You will note the brighter clouds off in Missouri and western Illinois - that's the leading edge of the weather maker for tomorrow and the start of the weekend.

Here's the forecast:


Today, cloudy skies, cold, a few flurries here and there.  High only 23, winds N 6-12 MPH will keep wind chills down in the teens or even single digits.

Tonight, overcast and cold some snow or wintry precipitation could start around 5 AM.  Lows near 18, wind chills colder, wind ESE 8-13 MPH.

Friday, cloudy, a wintry mix or some snow.  Falling snow accumulations should be under 2".  High 34. Wind SSW 7-14 MPH.

Friday night, clouds stay put, precipitation tapers off by midnight except for maybe a flurry, not as cold, lows near 25, wind SW 7-14 MPH.

Saturday, mostly cloudy, a slight chance of snow or freezing rain, high 36.

Sunday, mainly cloudy with a peek or two of sun, some spots may see a brief snow shower, a touch milder, high 37.

Monday, mainly cloudy but a few early breaks for sunshine are possible, then cloudy again with a chance of snow showers, high 40.

Tuesday, we stay cloudy, a bit cooler, a touch of light snow in some areas is possible, high 35.

Wednesday, clouds don't go anywhere, a bit milder, a very small chance of a snow shower, high 38.

There's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

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