Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Big Changes, Big Snow Northwest...

Good Evening!

We had bright sunshine throughout South Central Michigan this hump day.  We'll be seeing some significant changes and some more snow as we barrel toward the weekend though - let's dive in and have a look at it all...

SUMMARY:  High temperatures in the area made it into the 30's today.  We keep our clear skies around for awhile longer, then we change it up as our next system heads this direction.  This guy will pack a punch, I'll get into detail below.

Looking ahead, we see temperatures actually struggle above freezing briefly, in front of a storm system tracking in from the west-southwest that will bring us plenty of snow for Thursday and Friday, then we fall back into the freezer until Sunday (more on the precipitation below).  Next week, forecast data is suggesting readings a good 10 degrees milder than we are right now in the early part of the week, so the good news is what we get from this storm, we will melt off at least somewhat in the next week if everything verifies as advertised.

SNOWSTORM:  The National Weather Service has already sounded the alert for a storm that will impact the blog tomorrow and Friday, especially in the north zone.  Winter Storm Warning for Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties; Winter Storm Watch for Shiawassee, Livingston, and Washtenaw counties; Winter Weather Advisory for Calhoun and Jackson counties.  Details can be found in the prior blog post.  The northwest corner of the blog could see as much as a foot of new snow starting tomorrow and continuing through Friday morning.  Along the I-94 corridor, somewhat lower accumulations, but a wintry mix is possible that will make travel an adventure.  Take a look at this forecast map from the National Weather Service:

National Weather Service Snowfall Forecast through Friday night 7 PM EST
A slight ridge with southerly flow adds moist air to the mix as a low arrives at almost the same time, setting the stage for all modes of precipitation.  As the low moves by, winds spin around to the NNW, and the snow falls.  We'll keep a close eye on the track of this thing, if the track comes further south, oh boy...

POST-STORM:  After the snow is done, things settle down and we are quiet for a bit.  Cold temperatures Saturday due to Canadian high pressure filtering in, then we start warming up sharply on Sunday.  If the GFS has it right, we jump into the 40's on Sunday, and increase the chances of precipitation for the new work week, and this looks like rain or perhaps a wintry mix based on the forecast modeling.  For my money, I think the computer is a bit ambitious, and I would say something more like 39 for Sunday.  I'll need to see another run or two of model data to refine that estimate.

All quiet in the area right now, here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Parma:

Tonight, clear to start then clouds increase as the night progresses, nighttime lows near 18 with winds S 3-6 MPH.

Tomorrow, increasing clouds, a wintry mix develops after lunch then changes to snow later, high 32, winds SSW 4-8 MPH.  Maybe an inch of accumulation and/or some ice before the changeover.

Thursday night, cloudy with some lingering traces of wintry mix precipitation, it should be all snow by 8 PM, accumulations should be three to five inches, depending on location.  Not as cold with a low down to about 23, winds SSW 4-8 MPH.

Friday, snow diminishing early afternoon, an additional inch of snow by mid-afternoon is possible, high 27, wind SSE and working  to N 6-12 MPH.

Friday night, clearing skies and very cold, nighttime lows down to around 10 with wind chills at or below zero.  Winds N 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, clear skies and cold, high 25.

Sunday, increasing clouds, a wintry mix or rain develops midday, much warmer, with a high of 39.

Monday, partly to mostly cloudy with some scattered snow showers, high 38.

Tuesday, continued partly cloudy, cooler, perhaps the chance of some light snow, high 35.

Wednesday, some sunshine, colder still, high 33.

There's a look at your six day forecast, stay tuned to the blog, Twiiter, Facebook, and Google + for updates on the storm situation.  Have a blessed night!

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