Quiet & Mild For Awhile...

Good Morning!

A new work week is upon us and the holidays are now officially over for those of us with kids, as it's back to the grind and back to school for a lot of children, at least here in Michigan.

As far as what's going on overhead, not a whole lot to talk about over the next few days.  Hazy sunshine in the area at this hour, some clouds off the the east and clear skies moving in from the west, most reporting stations floating in the mid to high 20's.  Here's a look at the current surface temperature summary for the good old U.S. of A...

It's not frozen right now, so we'll pop the hood and see what we have running in there!

TEMPERATURES:  High pressure is parked over the IN/OH/KY region, and the flow around that feature is bringing us milder, moister air from the southwest. With multiple high pressure features meandering about near us, we'll see prime snow melt weather for the next several days, and temperatures marching upward steadily as we work toward the weekend.  Our fearless GFS computer forecast model is thinking we'll see 49 for a daytime high on Saturday!  It looks like we'll also string together a few days where we stay above freezing all day and all night.  We'll see if that verifies or not, but in any circumstance, we'll see unseasonably mild conditions for the next several days here over South Central Michigan.

PRECIPITATION:  Nothing of interest to mention over the next few days, except periods of clouds and sunshine.  With the melting snow and mild temperatures, keep your eyes open for overnight and early morning fog, and be prepared for slick spots as wet pavement freezes over, creating some black ice situations, especially on untreated roads.

The next real chance at some precipitation will be Thursday afternoon and evening, and carrying into most of Friday.  An upper feature starts to cloud us up Thursday after lunchtime, then we see scattered to numerous showers develop from southwest to northeast across the area during the balance of Thursday.  I'm thinking we'll get the morning and lunch commutes out of the way in dry fashion, with perhaps just a lone shower as you get the kids from school or off the bus.  Some showers on the way home from work, then we get a good soaker in after dark.  Take a look at this forecast map and you'll see what I'm talking about...

GFS Forecast Model Map for 7 PM EST Thursday

Even with temperatures up near 50, at this point, I don't see any reason to consider anything beyond rain and showers.  The atmosphere shouldn't be unstable enough to allow anything with thunder to develop.  It's winter, and the air is too cold and sinkable near the ground and a ways up.  You need moist, floaty, unstable air among other things to kick off storms.

Infrared satellite imagery shows not much at all in the way of clouds in the Midwest this morning...

Infrared Satellite Picture

Now let's look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Spring Arbor:

Today, mostly sunny with a few passing clouds, high 36, winds SSW increasing to 7-12 MPH.

Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, low near 25, wind S 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, again, mainly clear skies with a few clouds floating by, high 39, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday night, more starry skies, perhaps a cloud or two, lows roll back to 27, winds become W 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday, sunny, unseasonably mild, high 43.

Thursday, sunny to start, increasing clouds as our weather system approaches.  Perhaps an isolated afternoon shower, high 38.

Friday, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers, continued unseasonably mild, high 44.

Saturday, cloudy skies, we can't rule out a few lingering showers, milder still, high near 50.

Sunday, periods of scattered showers as another upper impulse moves through, not as mild, high 41.

There's your six day forecast, I do hope you enjoy your Monday!  Blessings.