A Good Soaker Shares A Taste Of Fall...

Hello Again!

More unseasonably cool and autumn-like weather this morning in The South Central Michigan Weather Zone, with temperatures in the low to mid 50's and drizzle.  If you haven't already, you'll want an umbrella and a jacket or hoodie close by for the next day or so.  We have warmed a couple of degrees but the drizzle has stayed around, and that it will do for a good portion of the day today.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperature running well below normal for the next few days, with the mercury only managing a climb into the mid 70's early next week.  A ridge/trough setup in currently in place over the nation, with scorching summer heat in the southwest under a heat dome, and a deep trough in the eastern half of the country opening the door for cool Canadian air to filter well into the US.  Couple that with copious cloud cover, and you see why the temperatures are showing limited upward mobility the next couple of days.  This pattern is forecast to hold right through the weekend for sure, and I don't expect any real warming until the latter part of next week, when the ridge and trough flatten out some and bring us more west and southwest winds to push some warmer air up this way.  It feels like London today, and you could say it's an extended fall preview for the weekend!  Look at the temperatures around the US...

US Surface Temperatures (12:30PM EDT)

RAIN:  Here's something that I have not been able to say much at all this summer - we'll have moisture in plentiful supply for the next day or so, as a low pressure system sits right on top of us and SLOWLY moves east as he's rotating rain bands over us.  The center of the circulation is sitting right over Jackson, Washtenaw, and Lenawee counties at this hour according to satellite and NEXRAD radar imagery, and the sun will hide from view again today.  Take a look at the five-day precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

A little bit drier look for the next five days as forecast modeling shows the center of this low pressure system over the border into Ontario.  This area of the state is forecast to pick up anywhere from a half-inch to an additional inch of rain.  That looks like it's in the ballpark, I'm thinking maybe three-quarters of an inch on the high side in the north zone counties, and closer to the half inch south.  After the low takes Mr. Soaker with it, we'll have another shot at rain early Monday if the models have it right.  So far they all agree on the whole getting wet proposition for  the new workweek, timing isn't solid just yet though.

While we are on the subject of rain, just take a look at this NEXRAD radar image from Detroit with all the precipitation on it.  The NWS in Detroit has flood warnings up for Midland, Bay and Saginaw counties as this low continues to spin heavy rain bands over the same area!

Detroit NEXRAD Radar

SEVERE WEATHER:  Pretty quiet in this part of world now, as the severe threat has moved off to the east coast.  We just have the general risk for garden variety thunderstorms in the area for today, then just the northeast part of the blog area gets in on the action for tomorrow at this point.  If anything, flooding will be more of a concern at this point than severe weather.  Rain-cooled air will keep any robust storms from firing, though a buried thunderstorm still isn't out of the question entirely.

Here's a look at the visible satellite image at this hour:

Visible Satellite Image

Still plenty of clouds about, and they aren't going anywhere anytime soon.  Now, let's take a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Concord and Leoni Township...

For today, cloudy skies, continuous drizzle with intermittent showers, high temperature only 71, winds NNE 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, continued cloudy, showers and drizzle very gradually start tapering off late, nighttime lows roll back to 54, winds N 4-8 MPH.

Saturday, still cloudy as the surface low takes his own sweet time moving out, some drizzle or a few lingering showers are still likely through lunchtime, then tapering off, high of 73, winds NW, 5-10 MPH.

Saturday night, some clouds, perhaps a few stars as clearing starts late, cool, nighttime low of 55, winds NW 3-8 MPH.  A touch of drizzle or a stray shower still can't be ruled out early.

Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a bit warmer with a high of 76.

Monday, mostly cloudy, a chance of scattered showers and a lonely thunderstorm as another disturbance moves in, high 75.

Tuesday, continued mainly cloudy early, with scattered showers lingering, then some clearing after lunchtime, high 76.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, an outside chance of a stray shower, a bit warmer, high 78.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a wonderful Friday and a great weekend!  Blessings.