Severe storms moved through to the north of us last night, just clipping the north zone of the blog. Showers moved through here, and they are just wrapping up at this hour in this neck of the woods. Rain! Glorious, needed RAIN! We'll keep it around here for awhile today as well. A significant severe weather event is dialed in from Ohio to Connecticut for later today. A lot to talk about, so we'll go in reverse order again today, time to pop the hood and see what's running in there!
SEVERE WEATHER: The severe weather threat is over for Michigan today. Severe storms fired in the northern part of the state last night and in the early morning hours well before daybreak, just brushing Shiawassee county. If you take a look at the forecast maps from the Storm Prediction Center, you can see that the stage is now set for some major weather issues from extreme southeast Indiana northwest to Massachusetts. Here's a look at the maps for today, valid at 8AM EDT:
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| Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Categorical Risk |
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| Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Severe Wind Risk |
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| Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Hail Risk |
As far as days two and three for severe weather, things get fairly quiet, with just low 5% risk bullseyes on the maps for days two and three. We'll add those maps in later discusssions if need be. Closer to home...
TEMPERATURES: We'll keep temperatures down in the mid to upper 80's today and tomorrow, thanks to a surface low tracking north of us today. Longer range, I think upper 80's may pop up again briefly, perhaps on Tuesday, but shower and storm activity should help hold things in check. Dewpoints should come down into the low to mid 60's as the day wears on today and right through the weekend, so it won't be as damp and muggy outside either. Last night at midnight before the rains came, we had heat index values at 90 degrees in Jackson and 89 in Ann Arbor, due mainly to the humid air!
RAIN: Once we get the showers out of here this morning, we should be set until late this evening or tomorrow. There's still a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but nothing like what we just finished up with to the north of us, or what's forecast for out east. Conditions will still favor some widely scattered or scattered showers, possibly a roaming storm or two, and computer forecast modeling supports that, but no unruly mobs of storms expected.
The National Weather Service is forecasting around an inch over the next five days for the blog area, and that seems to fit for now, though in the back of my mind I want to dial it back to around half inch. We'll leave it as is for now and check it later. Here's that map:
If I bust low on this part of the forecast, I will embrace it lovingly, as we need all the rain we can get. Crops are basically at the point of no return now, so, sadly we'll have to expect food prices to climb some in the coming months.
Looking at current conditions, plenty of cloud cover that should stay with us through the day with some breaks here and there are visible on the satellite image:
Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar shows we've gotten the rain out of here for the time being:
And here's the forecast for Jackson County:
For today, mainly cloudy skies with a few breaks for sun, a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm re-forming this afternoon, warm and still muggy with a high of 84, winds SW 3-8 MPH.
Tonight, skies continue mostly cloudy with a chance at scattered showers and thunderstorms, lows down to 65, winds SW 3-8 MPH.
Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, chance at a widely scattered or scattered shower or lonely thunderstorm, high 83, winds SW turning NW 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, periods of clouds and stars, we still can't rule out a scattered shower or hit and run thunderstorm, a bit less humid with lows rolling back to 62, winds turn NNW calm to 6 MPH.
Saturday, mostly sunny skies with a few passing clouds, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 83.
Sunday, more sun than clouds, continued pleasantly warm, high 84.
Monday, clouds roll in as the day progresses, becoming mainly cloudy by late afternoon with a chance at scattered showers and thunderstorms, a bit more humid, high 85.
Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies, a chance of widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms after lunchtime, high 86.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days. I do hope that you have a great Thursday! Blessings.
TEMPERATURES: We'll keep temperatures down in the mid to upper 80's today and tomorrow, thanks to a surface low tracking north of us today. Longer range, I think upper 80's may pop up again briefly, perhaps on Tuesday, but shower and storm activity should help hold things in check. Dewpoints should come down into the low to mid 60's as the day wears on today and right through the weekend, so it won't be as damp and muggy outside either. Last night at midnight before the rains came, we had heat index values at 90 degrees in Jackson and 89 in Ann Arbor, due mainly to the humid air!
RAIN: Once we get the showers out of here this morning, we should be set until late this evening or tomorrow. There's still a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but nothing like what we just finished up with to the north of us, or what's forecast for out east. Conditions will still favor some widely scattered or scattered showers, possibly a roaming storm or two, and computer forecast modeling supports that, but no unruly mobs of storms expected.
The National Weather Service is forecasting around an inch over the next five days for the blog area, and that seems to fit for now, though in the back of my mind I want to dial it back to around half inch. We'll leave it as is for now and check it later. Here's that map:
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
Looking at current conditions, plenty of cloud cover that should stay with us through the day with some breaks here and there are visible on the satellite image:
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| Visible Satellite Image |
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| Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar Image |
For today, mainly cloudy skies with a few breaks for sun, a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm re-forming this afternoon, warm and still muggy with a high of 84, winds SW 3-8 MPH.
Tonight, skies continue mostly cloudy with a chance at scattered showers and thunderstorms, lows down to 65, winds SW 3-8 MPH.
Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, chance at a widely scattered or scattered shower or lonely thunderstorm, high 83, winds SW turning NW 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, periods of clouds and stars, we still can't rule out a scattered shower or hit and run thunderstorm, a bit less humid with lows rolling back to 62, winds turn NNW calm to 6 MPH.
Saturday, mostly sunny skies with a few passing clouds, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 83.
Sunday, more sun than clouds, continued pleasantly warm, high 84.
Monday, clouds roll in as the day progresses, becoming mainly cloudy by late afternoon with a chance at scattered showers and thunderstorms, a bit more humid, high 85.
Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies, a chance of widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms after lunchtime, high 86.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days. I do hope that you have a great Thursday! Blessings.
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