First of all, a reminder that today is an Ozone Action Day in Livingston, Washtenaw, and Lenawee counties. People that are sensitive to Ozone and children should try to take it easy outdoors today. Check out the previous post for full details.
Now - yesterday was an IDEAL day outside, blue skies, low humidity, and just comfy all around. All of that starts to go bye-bye today, then Memorial Day weekend...man oh man. Let's take a deeper dive and see what's going on...
TEMPERATURES: Warm today, humidity values start to creep up as well, resulting in heat index values around 90. A bit of a break on Friday and into Saturday with moderating temperatures, then it heats up again Sunday, with heat index values climbing into the mid 90's thanks to increasing humidity, against upper 80's air temperatures with an occasional 90 as well! I need to go into a bit of detail about the upcoming heat here, I'll try to make this as quick and painless as possible...
Take a look at this map. It's a GFS (Global Forecast System) computer model map, one of many used to predict the weather:
This is the computer's idea of what the air about 18,000 feet up will look like at 11AM on Sunday May 27th. See that 588 the arrow is pointing to? If you look at the black line extending either side of that number and follow it, we are in the area bounded by that value. To a meteorologist (or student of weather such as myself), that 588 line means that there's a good chance surface temperatures will be near or above 90! The further south you go, the warmer it gets. If you look at the the black contour lines, that 588 is kind of a heat dome of sorts.
Memorial Day will definitely be a pool or beach day...if we can duck showers and thunderstorms. More on that below.
RAIN: A little bit wetter look than we have seen the last couple of model runs, with the National Weather Service now thinking that most places in Michigan will see about an inch of rain over the next five days. Here's a look at that map valid though 8AM Tuesday May 29th:
I still like the idea of us staying dry through Saturday, and then a chance at showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Cloudy conditions and dew points well into the 60's over the latter part of the weekend will make for humid conditions and plenty of moisture for storms to fire.
SEVERE WEATHER: Not much going on our way today, but out to the northwest of us in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula, the Storm Prediction Center has a "slight" risk bullseye in place. Based on the dynamics and conditions in place, I wouldn't be shocked to see SPC bump that up a notch to "moderate" in the same area for today. Here's a look at the Day 1 map, valid at 8AM today:
For tomorrow, Day 2, just a general risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms for much of Lower Michigan. In fact, the same can be said for many places in the US. Here's that map:
Now, nothing to be overly concerned with just yet, but I do want to mention this just to file away in your mind for future reference...Day 5, which is Memorial Day, a risk of severe weather is already defined. Here's where the bullseye is drawn:
That just clips the western part of the blog area. It's close enough that it bears watching. The area could shift, grow, shrink, or vanish altogether.
Here's a look at the visible satellite, Grand Rapids NEXRAD is quiet. All the action is northwest of us.
Now it's time for a look at the local forecast for Jackson County:
Today, clear skies with maybe just a few passing clouds, warm, high 85, southerly winds 8-15 MPH.
Tonight, mostly clear skies, a few clouds scattered about, low of 62, winds SW to W 8-15 MPH.
Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, cooler, with a small chance of an isolated shower, high of 80. Winds NW 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, mainly cloudy skies with some breaks for stars, low of 54, winds NW winds swing and become NE 5-10 MPH.
Saturday, partly cloudy to start, then becoming overcast with a chance of scattered showers or a lonely thunderstorm, high 83.
Sunday, cloudy, humid, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible, high 87.
Memorial Day, cloudy, muggy, with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, high 84.
Tuesday, cloudy, cooler, a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, high 77.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope your Thursday is great! Blessings.
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