We caught a break yesterday, as far as a severe weather goes. Most of the ingredients were in place for severe weather to fire in the late afternoon into the early evening hours, and then everything just sort of fizzled and we remained bone dry, then cleared off to boot. For my money, the cap held. We'll talk about that in a separate post. It looks like we're in a similar situation today, but we'll have to see if the cap holds tough again, or if it weakens enough to allow storm development. Quite a show going on up to the north of us right now, as strong storms are making their way through the northern half of the Lower Peninsula. Look at this infrared satellite image:
And this is a radar image from the Grand Rapids NEXRAD taken a bit earlier this morning...
Now, let's take a deeper dive:
SEVERE WEATHER: The current set of severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center has us with a "slight" risk for severe storms today, and it looks like any strong storms will be confined to the north zone, especially north of I-96. Here's a look at the maps, each one valid at 8AM as always. This is today...
Day two we fall back into the "general" risk category...
No risk at all on Day 3...
From the looks of it, the primary threat from severe storms would be strong wind and hail, as opposed to tornadoes, but I don't want to take that totally off the table, as there's nothing to say that a quick spin-up tornado couldn't form inside a severe storm.
RAIN: Still a pretty wet look, with the National Weather Service forecasting two inches or better for most of the state. I don't think we get that much here in the blog area, I would say an inch to an inch and-a-quarter tops over the next five days. Computer models are known to have a hard time nailing down rain totals in this type of weather pattern, and it depends so much on where thunderstorms fire, and whether they are high precipitation or low precipitation storms (yes there's a difference!). Anyhow, here's the 5 day rain map from the National Weather Service:
TEMPERATURES: We'll be in a warm summer-like pattern for another day or so, then we start to cool things down, rolling back into the more seasonable 70's. We'll get into the 80's again today throughout most places the blog covers, with broken sunshine. The GFS and NAM like 86 and 84 respectively, so we'll split the difference and call it 85 in Jackson, and the models indicate a high of 83 sounds right for Lansing. The warm air dome is making his presence felt, that's for sure! Here's a look at current temperatures around this great nation...
Look at those 60's and 70's at 6:30AM, you can see pretty well where the warm air dome is already!
And here's the local forecast for Jackson County:
For today, periods of clouds and sunshine, warm and a little humid, a chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially as you go north, high temperature 85, winds SW 10-20 MPH.
Tonight, mainly starry skies, some clouds could bring an isolated or widely scattered nighttime shower or storm, lows near 60, winds SW 7-15 MPH.
Friday, mainly cloudy skies, not quite as warm, a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, high near 80, SW winds 10-20 MPH.
Friday night, cloudy skies early with a chance of an isolated shower, then clearing a bit late, lows near 60, wind ENE 7-14 MPH.
Saturday, cloudy skies with a peek or two of sunshine, a chance at a scattered shower or storm, high of 71.
Sunday, clear skies and pleasant, high near 73.
Monday, cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, high near 75.
Tuesday, cloudy skies and a chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, high near 72.
There's a look at your forecast for the next 6 days, I do hope you have a great day! Blessings.
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