BUSTED: I REALLY hate when my forecast gets busted. I own up to them every time though, to keep things honest. I am not yet a schooled meteorologist, and I don't just copy the National Weather Service forecasts, even though I look at a lot of the same data they have to create their forecasts. I do like to match wits with the trained meteorologists, and so far I have been doing fairly well keeping close to them. Not this trip. I predicted that we would see some scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, which verified, but I also said that they wouldn't show until this afternoon. BUST. Well, we have a radar full of scattered precipitation right now, and it's still morning. Let's take a look and see if we can sort this out with a deeper dive...
TEMPERATURES: Today we see warmer temperatures than Friday, and Sunday and Monday are very warm. The good news, we shouldn't be quite as hot as originally forecast. We'll still see 90, no doubt, but I don't think we edge quite as close to triple digits with the heat index values as first expected. In reality, it'll all probably feel about the same to you, and you'll still want a cold drink handy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms each day may put a kink in holiday outdoor plans. After that, upper 70's Tuesday, and a big cool down from hump day on, with daytime highs that don't make it out of the 60's making you reach for a jacket to toss in the car.
RAIN: We have some of that in the area now, and we'll keep it around here and there throughout the day. We could see some rain around fireworks time tonight of the scattered to numerous shower kind. My thinking is even with that, there should still be a window of a couple of dry hours to squeeze in a show, as both Lansing and Jackson are slated for displays tonight. We'll have to see what shakes out with the afternoon heating of the atmosphere.
The National Weather Service has upgraded the amounts of rain in their 5 day forecast, and I think this looks about right for where we're headed, with the early development of rain today. Most areas throughout South Central Michigan are expected to pick up about anywhere from a half-inch to a little over an inch the next 5 days. Here's that map for you.
SEVERE WEATHER: It's been awhile since we've had to do this, but we'll take a look at maps from the Storm Prediction Center for all three days in the forecast window. Michigan has some sort of storm possibility each day of the next three. Here's a look at the maps from SPC, valid each day at 8AM as always:
This is today's forecast, with just the "general" risk for Michigan. The greatest risk today from storms that fire today would be heavy rain and hail:
Here's the map for tomorrow, again, just the "general" risk, low end 5% chances, heavy rain, wind and hail still the main threats.
Here's day three, Memorial Day, with the risk bumped up a notch to "slight". This percentages map shows us in 15% probability of severe weather. Bear in mind that you don't need to see percentages way up there for severe weather to occur. This would indicate hail, high wind, and a tornado threat.
Here's a look at things right now, the visible satellite image with the NEXRAD composite overlay on top, and a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image for you as well.
Visible Satellite and NEXRAD Regional Composite Overlay
Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity
And here's the forecast for Jackson County:
For today, mainly cloudy skies, maybe a few peeks of sun, periods of scattered to numerous showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm, high 83, winds ESE 7-12 MPH.
Tonight, mainly cloudy skies continue, still the chance of scattered to numerous showers or a buried thunderstorm. Lows roll back to 60, SSE winds 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sun, very warm and humid, a chance of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, high 91. Heat index values will be well into the 90's with dew points in the mid 60's. Winds SSW 7-14 MPH.
Sunday night, skies clear a bit for a peek at stars, still the chance of a scattered shower or storm until about 1AM, low 68, winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Memorial Day, partly sunny early, then clouds increase with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, warm with highs approaching 91, heat index values will be well into the 90's again.
Tuesday, cloudy skies with showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing slowly, cooler, with a high of 78.
Wednesday, more sun than clouds, breezy and much cooler, high 71.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun, cooler still, high 66.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days. I hope your Saturday is great. Expect a fireworks forecast later this afternoon for Jackson and Ingham counties here in Michigan. Blessings!
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