A crazy day for me today, hence the nighttime forecast. Apologies my friends.
Clouds were in the north zone this Thursday afternoon, and a mix of clouds and sun in the south zone. One more night of cold, then warming for the weekend…along with rain. Severe Weather possible next week? A lot to cover...Let's take a deeper dive:
TEMPERATURES: We'll see one more night of chilly conditions, with a Frost Advisory up for all counties the blog covers. Temperatures will move around within a degree or two either side of freezing, with fairly calm conditions. After we get this out of here, I would be surprised to see anymore frost or freeze issues. We finished up in the mid 50's throughout the area today, and we'll add a few degrees to that each day. Mid to upper 60's and even some 70's are on tap for the weekend. Places that hit 70 or better Sunday should be able to carry that into Monday.
RAIN: From what's showing now, we'll have some rain in here late Friday night into Saturday, and keep it around in periods for the weekend. The models are showing this weekend as a two-shot rain event. Saturday, the southern half of the state, as well as northern Indiana and Ohio will get the lion's share of the rain, and Sunday, the northern part of the state gets their rain. Here's what the National Weather Service thinks regarding rain the next 5 days:
Look at those rain totals: They just keep creeping on up. First, we were looking dry, then we were thinking about an inch at the most throughout the area, now we're looking at an inch and-a-half to two inches, with the north zone looking a bit wetter than the south. We should know more tomorrow about what the timing of the weekend rain looks like.
SEVERE WEATHER: What a difference a day makes! Yesterday we had no severe threat of any kind anywhere close to us, now the Storm Prediction Center is saying that the southern half of the lower peninsula will see a general risk of garden variety thunderstorms on day2, which is Saturday. That validates the mention of a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area for Saturday that I have had in the forecast for a day or two already. Based on what the models are showing now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of those go elevated and become strong, with some gusty winds and heavy rain. When you are talking about storms, especially spring thunderstorms, you just can't be reasonably sure until a day or two out. Here's a look at SPC's forecast maps, days one through three. As usual, the day's map isn’t valid until that day at 8AM EDT.
Now, I did mention a shot at severe weather next week. Here's the scoop. The GFS (one of our friendly computer models, another forecasters use is called the NAM) has a pretty strong area of low pressure at the surface, with decent energy and support as you go higher in the atmosphere. Both the GFS and the NAM are telling me we'll see a 20 degree or better temperature swing between Sunday and Tuesday. A low with that much swing in it has the tendency to shake up things. We'll keep an eye on it.
Whew! Some clouds in Jackson, here's the current infrared satellite image:
And here's the radar image from Grand Rapids, with observations as well…
And this is the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Rives Junction:
For tonight, we start overcast, but the clouds go away and the winds die off, leaving it starry and chilly. Remember the Frost Advisory until 9AM tomorrow. Nighttime lows roll back to about 34, any winds we do get will be light and variable.
Friday the 13th - sunny and pleasant, highs near 62, winds SSW 10-20 MPH.
Tomorrow night, clouds increase as the evening progresses, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with them, nighttime lows only fall to around 50, south winds 5-10 MPH.
Saturday, showers and thunderstorms likely, high of 66, winds SSW 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, another day of showers and thunderstorms is likely, warm, with a high of 72.
Back to work on Monday with another day of showers and thunderstorms, daytime high near 64.
Tuesday, we'll see cooler temperatures, some clearing, with a high near 58.
That's a look at the weather, sorry for the late forecast. Follow me on Twitter @wxMikeD, or Facebook, Forecaster Mike Estwick. Have a good night!
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