Let's get the painful stuff out of the way first. I have to own up to a busted forecast of sorts. I had more confidence that it would already be wet in South Central Michigan, and that hasn't happened yet. I also predicted nighttime lows for Jackson of 52, and from what I can see, we didn't dip below 55. It did not cool as I expected it to, we had some cloud cover to keep the daytime and evening heat blanketed in. The low didn't get here as I figured it would, keeping us dry. I guess a no rain and warmer than forecast bust is one I can live with, if I have to take one at all.
TEMPERATURES: Enjoy this mild air while you can, it's on the way out of here tonight into tomorrow as low pressure arrives from the southwest, tracking up through southeastern Michigan. We'll see temperatures swing 20 to 30 degrees over the next day or so. On the backside of the cold front, evening low temperatures will once again flirt with the freezing mark, a far cry from the 60's and occasional 70 we have had in the area. That colder air isn't going anywhere either.
A trough digs in over Michigan and the eastern Great Lakes, importing more colder Canadian air, keeping temperatures in the 50's well into next week. Another strong low pressure system will start offshore near Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday and meander north, hugging the east coast, then actually "back up" northwest and move inland, over New Jersey and New York. We'll be in the backside flow from that low as well, keeping colder air coming in over Michigan. The US will be split nearly in two, with a big ridge of warm air building into the west and the Plains, while most places east of the Mississippi and north of Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee will be chilly until that ridge pushes that Canadian import out mid week! Here's two maps to help you see what's going on. Look for the low (letter "L") down by Georgia and South Carolina on 8AM Sunday according to the GFS model...
Now look at where it is on Monday at 8AM...
RAIN: The surface low that was already forecast to be here let off the gas some yesterday. Current model runs all agree that we'll be seeing some rain after lunch today, and it will carry through into tomorrow morning. That low looks to track right up into Detroit, and we'll pick up most of our rain on the cooler back side of it. As a result, I don't see a huge chance for thunder, but we'll leave a shot at an embedded thunderstorm in the forecast. That low is expected to be gone in a little more than half a day once it does start raining, but it'll drop a lot of precipitation during it's stay. The National Weather Service has upped the ante a bit to over 2 inches of rain in the bullseye northwest of us. The South zone of the blog should see up to a half inch, the North zone counties will see closer to a inch or a touch more out of this rain-maker. Here's a look at the predicted totals for the next 5 days:
Notice all the rain from that crazy low out on the eastern seaboard!
SEVERE WEATHER: Today is the only day the Storm Prediction Center is currently forecasting any risk, and that's just a garden variety storm risk. The best chance at rough stuff is along the Texas Gulf Coast then inland a ways today, and then tomorrow the Florida Peninsula gets a chance at severe storms. Here's the Day 1 forecast, valid at 8AM today:
Southeastern Michigan is where storms may fire in advance of the front and low pressure system.
OK! A lot to go over, here's the forecast For Jackson and surrounding communities including Michigan Center and Rives Junction.
For today, a few peeks of sun early, then cloudy skies as showers and perhaps a hidden thunderstorm move in, high temperature 66, winds SW turning NW, 10-20 MPH.
Tonight, showers, possibly a lonely thunderstorm mixed in, lows drop to 34 with northerly winds 7-15 MPH.
Saturday, cloudy early then clearing by after lunchtime, much cooler, high of 55, NNE winds 7-15 MPH.
Saturday night, main starry, perhaps a couple of passing clouds, lows, near 34, winds NE 5-10 MPH.
Sunday, sunny, cool, high near 54, winds NE 5-10 MPH.
Back to work Monday with sunny skies, a touch warmer, highs near 56, winds ESE 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday, more sun than clouds, high of 56.
Wednesday, mostly clear, but a few clouds in the afternoon, high of 59.
Thursday, cloudy skies with a chance of showers, high of 62.
That's your forecast for the next 7 days, I hope you have a great Friday and weekend! Blessings.
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