Back to the Freezer...

Good Morning.

First, a small forecast bust to own up to:  I called for rain between 2PM and 5PM in Jackson yesterday afternoon.  It didn't show until about 6:30.  Just a reminder to me that I am not steering weather systems and they run on their own timetable - not mine.  OK, moving on:

We're in the midst of a pattern that is all too familiar to us of late.  We start to warm up a bit, some rain showers come through, and on the back side of the rain, the gates open from Canada to bring in some downright chilly air, especially for the overnight hours.  Showers and a few thunderstorms have left the state up in the northern half of the Lower Peninsula at this hour, and strong to severe storms are moving through Ohio and Kentucky, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for southern Illinois, southern Indiana and Western Kentucky until 9AM EDT.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what's going on.

TEMPERATURES:  On the back side of this rain, temperatures will be cooler, and tonight the stage is set for sub-freezing temperatures.  As I indicated in my earlier warning post, Freeze Warnings are up for pretty much the entire blog area.  A lot of places will see nighttime lows into the mid 20's tonight.  That trend continues tomorrow with temperatures not making it above freezing until well after daybreak.  Skies will be clear, allowing any daytime heating to escape into the atmosphere in night.  Fortunately, we don't expect any snow.  Saturday the GFS is currently printing 49 for the high.  Once we get through this latest cold snap, temperatures will start to warm again in to the 50's with 70's on the table into next week.  Hang in there!  Here's current temperatures around the nation.  Notice the freezing line lurking just over the border into Canada...

RAIN:  Once we get this rain out of here today, our next chance at rain comes in early Saturday.  Rain totals should fall as you get away from the state line, and the latest model runs are looking  bit drier as compared to a day or so ago.  I'm thinking the south zone counties will see up to a half-inch of rain, and the north zone counties should pick up around three-tenths of an inch.  So at this point, we'll go with some scattered showers in the area throughout the day Saturday, but I'm not seeing enough rain now to totally ruin outdoor activities. I'll need to see another model run to lock that in for the weekend forecast.  After that, we'll keep the rain away for another day or so.  Here's a look at the National Weather Service's idea of rain through next Monday.

We're picking up close to an inch over the next five days, which matches up with around a half inch for this rain event and Saturday.  This is the first time that I haven't seen a wild fluctuation in the rain amount between forecasts. The middle of next week is looking pretty wet so far, again, we'll sharpen the forecast as we move closer.

SEVERE WEATHER:  We don't even get touched by a general risk for the next three days, as the bulk of the activity stays in the Tennessee Valley and foothills of Appalachia.  A "slight" risk extends through eastern Colorado, southwest Nebraska, western Kansas, and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma today.  Tomorrow that threat moves east a bit to Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma.  The chasers are drawing up battle plans I'm sure.  Here's the Day 1 and 2 maps from the Storm Prediction Center.  They're valid as always, at 8AM.

Day 1

Day 2

Now let's look at the local forecast for Jackson County.


For today, cloudy skies, cooler, rain showers taper off as the day progresses, still mild, high of 59, SE winds 5-10 MPH turn northerly and increase to 10-20 MPH.


Tonight, clearing skies, then cold, frost after midnight, Freeze Warnings are in effect.  low of 25.
Winds N 5-10 MPH.


Tomorrow, clear and cooler, high of 56, winds N 5-10 MPH.


Friday night, becoming cloudy, chance of rain showers late, low of 36, winds NE 5-10 MPH.


Saturday, cloudy skies, cool, high of 49, winds NE 10-15 MPH.


Sunday, sunny, warmer, high of 56.


Monday, partly sunny skies, warmer still, chance of showers as clouds increase later in the day, high of 65.


Tuesday, cloudy skies, a 50/50 chance of showers and thunderstorms, high of 72.


There's a look at your forecast for the next 6 days, I do hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.