Rainy Start To '17

Good Afternoon!

What will be going on for the New Year's Eve and the start of 2017?  Let's jump in and have a look.

MIXED BAG NOW:  As I write this for you around 2 PM EST, visible satellite showing some stratiform clouds north of a line from roughly Detroit to Sturgis.  The south zone reporting clear skies, north zone reporting clouds and overcast.  Temperatures are fairly uniform, with readings in the low to mid 40's.  The warm spots are along and south of I-94, with Ann Arbor, Marshall and Coldwater checking on with 44 degrees.

A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION NEARBY:  While I am not seeing anything in the blog area right now, we do note a little bit of light rain northwest of Lansing, then working into the southern part of the state south of I-94...

I really don't expect this to amount to much of anything, and I further expect it to stay fairly quiet for New Year's celebrating tonight and tomorrow.

BIG PICTURE:  The upper air pattern is quite zonal, with upper winds almost due west and howling across the Midwest, on the order of 90 knots across the state at 18,000 feet.  That means that any disturbances that would come through, such as the one with the clouds and light precipitation, would be here and gone in short order.  Not so fast though, we'll change that up for the first work week of 2017 though.

CHANGING PATTERN:  Early next week we'll see winds turn more southwesterly, we get some moisture in here ahead of a system that will be way back in Montana and the Dakotas, but impacting us nonetheless.  A little bit of early de-stabilization will touch off some rain showers, some pockets may even pick up a snow shower, all of that happening on Monday after 4 PM.  Here's what that could look like:

If this Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast verifies, it'll be scattered showers in the area Monday evening.  As you can see, the colder air is confined to the U.P. at this time, so snow should not be an issue - until later on.  We'll see this round of showers come and go, then another one on Tuesday afternoon.  That's the one we'll need to watch.  Colder air will be surging in along with that rain, so as temperatures fall, the snowflakes will start to as well, Tuesday evening.  Changeover will be a wild card for PM drive, so be aware.  I would not be shocked to see an inch or two of snow on the ground for you Wednesday afternoon or evening as that cold front pushes through.

TEMPERATURES?:  Enjoy the mild stuff while you can.  When that front moves through, the freezer door will be wide open!  We'll see readings dip back into the 30's for Sunday and Monday, a warm up into the 40's when that wind turns more southerly and the rains come in Tuesday, then after that, you can forget about getting above 25 until the weekend at the soonest!

Here's the forecast:

New Year's Eve Night - Mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 23.

New Year's Day - Cloudy.  High 39.

Monday - Cloudy, rainy.  High 42.

Tuesday - Mainly Cloudy, unseasonably mild.  Scattered showers.  High 51.

Wednesday - Overcast and much colder.  Highs only up to 22.

Thursday - Continued overcast, colder still.  High 18.

Friday - Clouds, cold.  High 19.

There's a look at your forecast for the last day of 2016, and the start of 2017.  Have a good one!  Please be safe when celebrating tonight!

Merry Christmas!

Quick Look For Friday/Saturday

Good Friday Morning!

I hope you didn't eat too much turkey yesterday, even though that word, turkey, describes the weather for us for the next couple of days.

QUICK OVERVIEW:  Here's what we have on tap.  Cloudy across the area right now with a few spotty showers here and there, have a look at the current NEXRAD image from Grand Rapids:

Just a few spotty showers on the north side of the Lansing Metro, with more coverage as you work west on I-96 toward Grand Rapids.  As the day progresses and an upper disturbance works into Michigan though, we should see those showers increase in coverage...

It would not shock me to see this fall as a bit of freezing rain or even have a few snowflakes mixed in with it, based on the forecast air temperatures right around freezing.  This activity moves out and it just remains seasonably mild afterward, with a chance at some rain each day right thru the forecast window, as we can't rule out a lonely shower in the midst of the clouds.

Today - Cloudy, periods of showers, a few snowflakes may mix in.  High 39.

Satuday - Mainly Cloudy, an isolated shower possible.  High 43.

Rainy Hump Day...Better Weekend Coming

Good Morning!

Damp and chilly is the rule for the next few days, but one more very brief hit of milder air works in before we get a taste of whats to come as far as winter weather.  Let's dive in and have a look at it.

RAINY, COLD:  Right now in South Central Michigan, no sun to be found, but plenty of rain and low temperatures.  Here's a look at that for you:

Heavier showers just offshore from Muskegon, warmest temperature in South Central Michigan is 42 degrees in Coldwater.  No sunshine until you get up toward the thumb, and they will be losing that as the day progresses.

BIG PICTURE:  Let's have a look at the forecast map from the National Weather Service, and then we'll discuss a couple of things.

The big player on the field is the low over the Iowa/Nebraska line.  The warm front sweeping up toward Michigan is what's triggering the showers and cloudy skies out of ahead of it.  I know you're looking at that rain/snow mix forecast line that roughly follows I-96 across the state!  I don't see that just yet, but the chances are definitely there!  

Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast for 8 PM tonight.  As we lose the daytime heating, here you see the model suggesting some showers and thunder in our area if this verifies, but if you look up north of say, Mount Pleasant/Clare area, there is some snow embedded in the mass of precipitation.  The second part of this is don't be surprised to see the storm track differently than what this model is thinking, and as always with winter weather, that will move your rain/snow line some.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER?:  Not for the next three days, and quite honestly, we're pretty much done with severe weather in the warm season sense.  Now it's time to start worrying about winter storm systems and such.

HALLOWEEN WEEKEND:  Saturday should be a good day and evening for goblins, ghouls and superheroes. We'll see some mixed sunshine and readings warming up into the low to mid 60's, which is about 10 degrees above the average highs of 52-55.  I'd keep the umbrella handy though, because we will introduce the chance of some widely scattered or scattered showers into the picture starting Friday an right on through into the new week.

LOOKING AHEAD:  After we get this system out of here, cool, with a break until the weekend, as I alluded to above.  We'll see another disturbance slide across the Great Lakes just on the northern side of the international border.  This will be the primary driver behind the possible raindrops over the next few days.  After that, not much to speak of until November 3rd/4th.  The thinking is a disturbance coming out of the northern Rockies becomes a bona fide surface low around Omaha and marches almost due east.  If that look verifies, we'll see some showers and a possible storm along with it.  Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable, no heat waves or cold snaps expected.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Cloudy, chilly.  Showers and an embedded thunderstorm possible.  High only 46.

Tonight - Cool and rainy.  Lows near 38.

Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy, still a bit cool.  High 51.

Friday - Periods of clouds and sun, warming.  High 58.

Saturday - More sun than clouds to start, but clouds thicken throughout the day, warmer.  We can;t rule out the mention of a shower or two late.  High 64.

Sunday - Clearing skies, some passing clouds still around though, some widely scattered showers.  Not as warm, high only 57.

Monday - Periods of clouds and sun, mild.  High 61.

Tuesday - Partly sunny, warmer.  High 63.

That's what we have for you today, make it a great one!

Rainy Sunday, Fall Returns Midweek...

Good Evening!

Some clouds filtering through the area with the cool down just underway after daytime highs of 70 in Lansing and Jackson.  Changes on the way though, as I expect a bit of wet weather the next few days.  Let's have a look at what's going on...

SEASONABLE AND MILD:  We note readings touching 70 across multiple places in South Central Michigan today, that's about 10 degrees above average.  Southerly flow across the area is responsible for the mild weather, and I expect us to build on that trend over the next few days.  I would not be shocked to see some 80's in the area for the first half of next week.  There will be a price to pay for that unseasonably warm weather though, we'll get rained on...

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MIX:  That southerly flow I alluded to aloft is bringing us plenty of moist air, and we'll see a disturbance filtering through the area over the next couple of days.  This will set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms for us during the first half of the week.  Here's a look at the water vapor satellite:

You see the grays and brighter whites coming up from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri?  That's the moisture I'm talking about that is setting up in the area.  Just what the doctor ordered for some showers and storms.  We also note a weak low over the Tennessee Valley, and a robust system just entering the playing field up in Washington State.  That will cause the clouds we have in the area now to thicken up and it'll eventually turn overcast, then the showers and such work in.

OK, IT'LL BE RAINY, ANYTHING SEVERE?:  Right now, I don't think so.  Definitely some showers and garden variety thunderstorms, some of those may dump some heavy rains and have a bit of gusty winds and blowhard, but nothing aside from that for the moment.  I will say that the Storm Prediction Center does have a "marginal" risk of severe weather up for a bit of far eastern Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, and the far western Upper Peninsula for tomorrow, starting at 8 AM EDT.  The better dynamic support for rowdy storms will be west of us for sure.

DOUBLE DIP RAIN:  Computer data is suggesting that we'll see rain anytime after 10 PM tonight in South Central Michigan, you may get it a bit sooner.  I don't see any thunder here, just showers.  We should catch a pre-dawn break as the first bit of rain gets out of here, but keep an umbrella with you for church or your travels Sunday morning, as more rains work in from the southwest.  Scattered to even numerous showers with a few isolated storms buried in the mix will be the rule most of Sunday and into Monday.  Don't be shocked by rain continuing in fits and starts until at least lunchtime Monday.

SECOND HALF COOL DOWN:  The mild temperatures will slide off to the east as we get into mid-week, and fall re-enters the picture.  South winds turn more west then northwest, sending readings back into the 60's for Wednesday, and mid to upper 50's by Thursday, that's actually where they should be.

LOOKING AHEAD:  I normally don't mess with talking about things outside of 7 days in advance, because the skill in forecasting goes down sharply, and the computer models have some issues with their take on things, such as the GFS model likes to run a bit too cold after a week out, but I do want to put this on the table for you as food for thought.  DISCLAIMER AS USUAL: ONE MODEL, ONE RUN, ONE SOLUTION.  This will change in the next seven days, but we will be watching for trends.

The 540 thickness I have marked is a general break point where rain/snow changeover happens.  Forecasters use it to predict a general area that would be suspect for snow.  Seeing no precipitation in the FutureCast radar here, I would think that we would see readings in the 40's next Sunday.  I'll watch it for you.

FUTURE OF THE BLOG:  I have not made a full decision yet as to if I will keep the blog open, or close it and just use Facebook and Twitter.  The straight job and a daughter busy with after-school activities take time that I would use to forecast for you, and I don't want to do it if I can't do it right.  I'll have a decision in November.  Rest assured that I would still post for Winter weather issues, but as far as keeping the page up and blogging like I have in the past, that is up in the air (no pun intended).

I hope you have a great Saturday night!  Blessings.