Hello Again!
Just a quick update to let you know that I have had the chance to look at a bit of weather data and analyze it with the aid of a couple of winter forecasting tools that I had to reinitialize. Looks like south central Michigan may see snow and accumulating snow. How much you ask? Possibly up to 2" up in the north zone (Lansing, St. John's) and perhaps an inch give or take in the south zone (Jackson, Battle Creek, Hillsdale, Adrian).
Data is suggesting if it hasn't already started, it should soon, and should be winding down by about 7 PM. That being said, be prepared for a slower than normal trip home from work. We'll advise you of any further changes.
Monday, November 11, 2013
Sunday, November 10, 2013
Shades Of Winter - Then Milder...
Good Evening!
As afternoon fades to evening here in Michigan, it's time to take a look at the forecast maps and data and try to make sense out of this coming week. One deeper dive coming up:
A QUICK NOSEDIVE TO START THE WEEK: Temperatures are in the 40's around the area right now, don't expect those to stick around for too much longer, as we do have a bit of a frontal boundary coming through. We'll see the coldest air of the season thus far filtering into Michigan in the next 24 hours or so. Temperatures will top out just above freezing tomorrow and into Tuesday before our daytime highs recover later on. Have a look at this graphic, showing the GFS forecast model's idea of temperatures as we head into Tuesday morning around 7 AM:
In addition to the cold, we'll also have to consider some...
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK: As I stated in my quick look, when the frontal boundary moves through, it will do some lifting of the air that will be enough to kick off some showers and snow showers. I don't expect much, if any accumulation on road surfaces, but there may be a little bit on grass, and you'll want to use a little extra caution as we'll be cold enough that bridges and overpasses definitely could have some ice form on them. The best chance for precipitation should be a window from about noon tomorrow through about 9 AM on Tuesday. That being said, here's a look at a future radar picture as forecast by the NAM forecast model.
He thinks we'll be wet not long after morning rush is over, so file that away as a possibility. You should expect perhaps a touch slower than normal commute home from work tomorrow evening. This forecast map shows you what the Weather Prediction thinks regarding our precipitation totals for the next five days.
After we get though this stretch, we'll see some...
DRIER, MILDER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK: Average high this time of year is 47 degrees, so we'll see that in the latter part of the week. Forecast models are suggesting that we get into mild air again for the weekend, something on the order of almost 60 degrees for Saturday, but I think that's a bit overdone. Let's call it 54 degrees for the weekend and re-visit that as the week progresses. Some partial clearing as milder air that's more westerly in nature filters in here, we'll stay with that until the weekend, when our skies cloud up and we ramp up the chances for some showers as the next disturbance works into the area.
Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Vandercook Lake:
I hope you have a wonderful evening and a good start to the week tomorrow! Blessings.
As afternoon fades to evening here in Michigan, it's time to take a look at the forecast maps and data and try to make sense out of this coming week. One deeper dive coming up:
A QUICK NOSEDIVE TO START THE WEEK: Temperatures are in the 40's around the area right now, don't expect those to stick around for too much longer, as we do have a bit of a frontal boundary coming through. We'll see the coldest air of the season thus far filtering into Michigan in the next 24 hours or so. Temperatures will top out just above freezing tomorrow and into Tuesday before our daytime highs recover later on. Have a look at this graphic, showing the GFS forecast model's idea of temperatures as we head into Tuesday morning around 7 AM:
 |
| Temperatures in the 20's with NW winds up to around 10 miles per hour will give us wind chills in the TEENS! Dress warm for the bus! |
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK: As I stated in my quick look, when the frontal boundary moves through, it will do some lifting of the air that will be enough to kick off some showers and snow showers. I don't expect much, if any accumulation on road surfaces, but there may be a little bit on grass, and you'll want to use a little extra caution as we'll be cold enough that bridges and overpasses definitely could have some ice form on them. The best chance for precipitation should be a window from about noon tomorrow through about 9 AM on Tuesday. That being said, here's a look at a future radar picture as forecast by the NAM forecast model.
He thinks we'll be wet not long after morning rush is over, so file that away as a possibility. You should expect perhaps a touch slower than normal commute home from work tomorrow evening. This forecast map shows you what the Weather Prediction thinks regarding our precipitation totals for the next five days.
 |
| Somewhere between a quarter and half inch of liquid precipitation over the work week is forecast by the WPC. |
DRIER, MILDER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK: Average high this time of year is 47 degrees, so we'll see that in the latter part of the week. Forecast models are suggesting that we get into mild air again for the weekend, something on the order of almost 60 degrees for Saturday, but I think that's a bit overdone. Let's call it 54 degrees for the weekend and re-visit that as the week progresses. Some partial clearing as milder air that's more westerly in nature filters in here, we'll stay with that until the weekend, when our skies cloud up and we ramp up the chances for some showers as the next disturbance works into the area.
Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Vandercook Lake:
I hope you have a wonderful evening and a good start to the week tomorrow! Blessings.
Saturday, November 9, 2013
Quick Thoughts For The New Week...
Good Morning -
About to start one of the two day jobs here, but I do have the time to give you a look at the major themes for the next several days in the area. You can expect a PM forecast this trip around. I hope you have a great day!
About to start one of the two day jobs here, but I do have the time to give you a look at the major themes for the next several days in the area. You can expect a PM forecast this trip around. I hope you have a great day!
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Quick Look For The Week...
Good Evening!
You can say goodbye to the warm season for sure now - we are back to Standard Time as of early this morning, and looking around, most of the trees are bare. The colder temperatures are here to stay, and along with them, rain and such. Taking a look at the forecast for the week, we do see some unseasonably mild weather come in mid week, and along with that, some showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Either side of that, temperatures seasonably cool, with mixed sunshine tossed in. Have a look at the graphics and you'll see how I think the week shakes out:
I hope you have a great week! Blessings.
Monday, October 28, 2013
Warming & Rainy...
Good Afternoon!
With some rare down time, taking a look at the weather picture through the end of the month, and it looks like the Halloween forecast is going to be full of tricks and not treats for all of the little goblins :-( -- Let's put the snorkel on and take a deeper dive.
MAINLY DRY, AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK: Dew point values are not much above freezing right now, and they will not creep up a whole lot for the next couple of days. A northeast flow aloft is bringing some moist air into Michigan, backing in off Lake Huron. That may trigger a few spotty showers, but what we're missing is a lifting mechanism to toss air upward and destabilize it enough to make some widespread rain. That all changes Wednesday night and into Thursday, as an upper disturbance that could create some severe weather issues in the Plains and Dixie Alley looks to phase up with what the models are thinking will become a bona fide low coming out of the upper Midwest. Have a look at the forecast map off the GFS model:
If those two can link up, we'll have plenty of showers and thunder, and I'll possibly have to dust off the severe weather portion of my postings.
A BRIEF REMINDER OF SPRING: Remember my last post saying that Fall is here to stay? This is why weather keeps you humble. I have to change that and go 180 degrees the other way. The latter half of the week should see temperatures into the 60's. That will bring in warmer dew point values and consequent with the arrival of the atmospheric floor jack in the form of a low to provide some lifting, we'll have conditions ripe for thunderstorms. The average temperature is 53 in this part of the world right now, and the GFS forecast model is suggesting 59 and 64 for daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. For now I'll buy that with the planner - you'll see below.
SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK?: The jury is still out on that one folks. I can say that the south end of Tornado Alley and even into north Texas will have at least an even money shot at some rough weather mid week, but the Storm Prediction Center isn't quite sure how far north and east out of the Plains that risk comes. Right now for Day 3 (10/30) SPC shows a general risk of storms that stops just short of the heart of the blog area. I'm sure that will change as the picture becomes clearer. Mississippi and Alabama may get some action on Halloween though. Have a look at the map:
And while we're on the subject of rain and such, here's what the Weather Predcition Center thinks regarding our chances for rain over the next five days:
As you can see the prediction is for some good rainfall, the lion's share of that in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.
OK - AFTER HALLOWEEN, THEN WHAT?: The low that I alluded to that is poised to bring us our showers and storms later this week leaves the US via the Upper Peninsula and Traverse City, leaving cooler conditions, some clouds, and the chance of some lingering showers until Sunday. After that it looks like we clear off and enjoy a bit more sunshine than we have seen the last several days.
Here's the forecast for you:
And a look at the extended six day forecast:
I hope you have a great rest of your Monday! Blessings.
With some rare down time, taking a look at the weather picture through the end of the month, and it looks like the Halloween forecast is going to be full of tricks and not treats for all of the little goblins :-( -- Let's put the snorkel on and take a deeper dive.
MAINLY DRY, AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK: Dew point values are not much above freezing right now, and they will not creep up a whole lot for the next couple of days. A northeast flow aloft is bringing some moist air into Michigan, backing in off Lake Huron. That may trigger a few spotty showers, but what we're missing is a lifting mechanism to toss air upward and destabilize it enough to make some widespread rain. That all changes Wednesday night and into Thursday, as an upper disturbance that could create some severe weather issues in the Plains and Dixie Alley looks to phase up with what the models are thinking will become a bona fide low coming out of the upper Midwest. Have a look at the forecast map off the GFS model:
 |
| This forecast map is valid around 5 PM on Halloween. Plenty of rain to go around. |
A BRIEF REMINDER OF SPRING: Remember my last post saying that Fall is here to stay? This is why weather keeps you humble. I have to change that and go 180 degrees the other way. The latter half of the week should see temperatures into the 60's. That will bring in warmer dew point values and consequent with the arrival of the atmospheric floor jack in the form of a low to provide some lifting, we'll have conditions ripe for thunderstorms. The average temperature is 53 in this part of the world right now, and the GFS forecast model is suggesting 59 and 64 for daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. For now I'll buy that with the planner - you'll see below.
SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK?: The jury is still out on that one folks. I can say that the south end of Tornado Alley and even into north Texas will have at least an even money shot at some rough weather mid week, but the Storm Prediction Center isn't quite sure how far north and east out of the Plains that risk comes. Right now for Day 3 (10/30) SPC shows a general risk of storms that stops just short of the heart of the blog area. I'm sure that will change as the picture becomes clearer. Mississippi and Alabama may get some action on Halloween though. Have a look at the map:
And while we're on the subject of rain and such, here's what the Weather Predcition Center thinks regarding our chances for rain over the next five days:
 |
| Rainfall totals approaching two inches just to the north of us, and we pick up around an inch. |
OK - AFTER HALLOWEEN, THEN WHAT?: The low that I alluded to that is poised to bring us our showers and storms later this week leaves the US via the Upper Peninsula and Traverse City, leaving cooler conditions, some clouds, and the chance of some lingering showers until Sunday. After that it looks like we clear off and enjoy a bit more sunshine than we have seen the last several days.
Here's the forecast for you:
And a look at the extended six day forecast:
I hope you have a great rest of your Monday! Blessings.
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