BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BRANCH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN HILLSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
* UNTIL 1030 PM EST
* AT 954 PM EST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UNION CITY TO BRONSON TO
NEAR STURGIS, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
UNION CITY AROUND 1000 PM EST.
COLDWATER AROUND 1010 PM EST.
QUINCY AROUND 1020 PM EST.
LITCHFIELD AROUND 1025 PM EST.
HILLSDALE, JONESVILLE AND READING AROUND 1030 PM EST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE TORNADIC STORMS INCLUDE MONTGOMERY,
GIRARD, EAST GILEAD, CALIFORNIA, ALLEN, KINDERHOOK, BATAVIA, SOUTH
BUTLER, LONG LAKE AND MATTESON LAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
TORNADO WARNING - BRANCH, HILLSDALE
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Plenty Of Action This Coming Week...
Good Evening!
Cold and a bit snowy in the area right now, but I can say that the pattern will be changing sometime soon, as we'll see some moderation in temperatures, but we'll also be bringing some precipitation into the area every 2 to 3 days. Lets have a look at what's going on:
COLD AND A TOUCH OF SNOW RIGHT NOW: Water vapor satellite image showing some moisture in the air here in Michigan, but the big players on the field are the winters storm system that made life miserable for our friends down in the Deep South, which has thankfully pushed out to sea over the Atlantic for the most part, and then a new system working into the interior west and the Rockies.
Winter Storm Watches are up for the mountains in Colorado, Utah, Montana and Nevada. Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar:
As per usual this time of year, you see some lake effect snow, as cold winds blowing from the northwest come across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan. This activity is extending all the way to the I-69 corridor, and I don't expect it to taper off for awhile yet.
MILDER AIR ON THE WAY: We'll start to see the temperatures notching up as the new work week starts, Monday, we should climb to near freezing, and then we'll add about 10 degrees to it and get up into the 40's. Readings will run from 38 to 44 pretty much for the entire week, but the issue with that, is that as I said early on, we'll have to cope with a....
POTENTIAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ALL WEEK: Every day this coming week we'll see a chance for some rain or show showers, we may even have a wintry mix thrown in just to keep things interesting as well. Let's have a look at some data for that.
Here's some images for you from the forecast computers....
This is the Hi-Res NAM forecast model for 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. You see that he's thinking the lake effect snow should stop, and we'll actually catch a breather. But the respite probably won't be very long. We'll get into Monday with nothing falling from the sky, but after PM drive, back at it...
This is the same forecast model, advanced to about 10 PM EST on Monday the 10th. You see light to moderate snow back into the area again, covering a good chunk of both peninsulas. I expect this event to persist into Tuesday. Don't be shocked to see upwards of 5" of snow in total on Tuesday. I'll have to check as we get more data tomorrow and Monday, because track and moisture could require that I tinker with new snowfall amounts. I'm thinking that 3" would be the average across the board, with heavier amounts as you travel up toward and past I-96. A couple of forecast solutions I have seen are suggesting wintry mix, and even some rain with this system, so we'll need to refine our forecast on this for sure.
Looking past Tuesday's system, how about another one on Thursday? Initial thinking is a similar experience to Tuesday's event. I'm wondering about the track of this one a bit more though, because I have noted a bit of flip-flop between model runs that suggests this one may be a flip from rain to snow, as opposed to Tuesday, which should be a snow to rain affair. Additionally, how the air stacks up temperature wise up to about 8000 feet above the ground will play into this also. Here's the FutureCast graphic off the GEM forecast model for that one...
Now this model is the one used by our friends north of the border in Environment Canada, It's their answer to the GFS model used here in the USA, and I like to look at it sometimes as a check and balance to our data, The GFS is actually pretty close to this one, with the exception of the rain/snow split being a hair north of where you see it here (pink shading), and a bit more widespread. Bottom line, expect Tuesday and Thursday to be messy in some way, shape or form.
LOOKING AHEAD: General thinking as we wind down the work week is that a strong polar high that has been massing north of the border kicks the freezer door back open, sending readings back south of freezing. Ahead of it, some showers then we change over to snow. The system is suggesting stormy weather to the south, and the high being a 1045 millibar high coming in would be VERY strong, so we may see quite the unsettled mess before that gets in here. Whew! That was a lot.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Chelsea:
Tonight - Cloudy skies, any lake effect snow lingering should start to taper off late, lows roll back to near 4 above.
Sunday - Partly to mainly cloudy and continued cold, high only 17.
Monday - Overcast skies, not as cold. Snow starts late and changes to either a wintry mix or even some rain. High 26.
Tuesday - Continued cloudy, warmer still, mixed bag of precipitation, snow should be about 3" with some locally higher amounts possible, high 44.
Wednesday - Cloudy, not quite as mild, a wintry mix still lingering in a few spots. High only 38.
Thursday - Still gray, a wintry mix or some snow expected. High 42.
Friday - Cloudy, some light to moderate snow. High 39.
There's your forecast. I hope that you have a great night!
Cold and a bit snowy in the area right now, but I can say that the pattern will be changing sometime soon, as we'll see some moderation in temperatures, but we'll also be bringing some precipitation into the area every 2 to 3 days. Lets have a look at what's going on:
COLD AND A TOUCH OF SNOW RIGHT NOW: Water vapor satellite image showing some moisture in the air here in Michigan, but the big players on the field are the winters storm system that made life miserable for our friends down in the Deep South, which has thankfully pushed out to sea over the Atlantic for the most part, and then a new system working into the interior west and the Rockies.
Winter Storm Watches are up for the mountains in Colorado, Utah, Montana and Nevada. Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar:
MILDER AIR ON THE WAY: We'll start to see the temperatures notching up as the new work week starts, Monday, we should climb to near freezing, and then we'll add about 10 degrees to it and get up into the 40's. Readings will run from 38 to 44 pretty much for the entire week, but the issue with that, is that as I said early on, we'll have to cope with a....
POTENTIAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ALL WEEK: Every day this coming week we'll see a chance for some rain or show showers, we may even have a wintry mix thrown in just to keep things interesting as well. Let's have a look at some data for that.
Here's some images for you from the forecast computers....
This is the Hi-Res NAM forecast model for 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. You see that he's thinking the lake effect snow should stop, and we'll actually catch a breather. But the respite probably won't be very long. We'll get into Monday with nothing falling from the sky, but after PM drive, back at it...
This is the same forecast model, advanced to about 10 PM EST on Monday the 10th. You see light to moderate snow back into the area again, covering a good chunk of both peninsulas. I expect this event to persist into Tuesday. Don't be shocked to see upwards of 5" of snow in total on Tuesday. I'll have to check as we get more data tomorrow and Monday, because track and moisture could require that I tinker with new snowfall amounts. I'm thinking that 3" would be the average across the board, with heavier amounts as you travel up toward and past I-96. A couple of forecast solutions I have seen are suggesting wintry mix, and even some rain with this system, so we'll need to refine our forecast on this for sure.
Looking past Tuesday's system, how about another one on Thursday? Initial thinking is a similar experience to Tuesday's event. I'm wondering about the track of this one a bit more though, because I have noted a bit of flip-flop between model runs that suggests this one may be a flip from rain to snow, as opposed to Tuesday, which should be a snow to rain affair. Additionally, how the air stacks up temperature wise up to about 8000 feet above the ground will play into this also. Here's the FutureCast graphic off the GEM forecast model for that one...
Now this model is the one used by our friends north of the border in Environment Canada, It's their answer to the GFS model used here in the USA, and I like to look at it sometimes as a check and balance to our data, The GFS is actually pretty close to this one, with the exception of the rain/snow split being a hair north of where you see it here (pink shading), and a bit more widespread. Bottom line, expect Tuesday and Thursday to be messy in some way, shape or form.
LOOKING AHEAD: General thinking as we wind down the work week is that a strong polar high that has been massing north of the border kicks the freezer door back open, sending readings back south of freezing. Ahead of it, some showers then we change over to snow. The system is suggesting stormy weather to the south, and the high being a 1045 millibar high coming in would be VERY strong, so we may see quite the unsettled mess before that gets in here. Whew! That was a lot.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Chelsea:
Tonight - Cloudy skies, any lake effect snow lingering should start to taper off late, lows roll back to near 4 above.
Sunday - Partly to mainly cloudy and continued cold, high only 17.
Monday - Overcast skies, not as cold. Snow starts late and changes to either a wintry mix or even some rain. High 26.
Tuesday - Continued cloudy, warmer still, mixed bag of precipitation, snow should be about 3" with some locally higher amounts possible, high 44.
Wednesday - Cloudy, not quite as mild, a wintry mix still lingering in a few spots. High only 38.
Thursday - Still gray, a wintry mix or some snow expected. High 42.
Friday - Cloudy, some light to moderate snow. High 39.
There's your forecast. I hope that you have a great night!
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Rainy Start To '17
Good Afternoon!
What will be going on for the New Year's Eve and the start of 2017? Let's jump in and have a look.
MIXED BAG NOW: As I write this for you around 2 PM EST, visible satellite showing some stratiform clouds north of a line from roughly Detroit to Sturgis. The south zone reporting clear skies, north zone reporting clouds and overcast. Temperatures are fairly uniform, with readings in the low to mid 40's. The warm spots are along and south of I-94, with Ann Arbor, Marshall and Coldwater checking on with 44 degrees.
A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION NEARBY: While I am not seeing anything in the blog area right now, we do note a little bit of light rain northwest of Lansing, then working into the southern part of the state south of I-94...
I really don't expect this to amount to much of anything, and I further expect it to stay fairly quiet for New Year's celebrating tonight and tomorrow.
BIG PICTURE: The upper air pattern is quite zonal, with upper winds almost due west and howling across the Midwest, on the order of 90 knots across the state at 18,000 feet. That means that any disturbances that would come through, such as the one with the clouds and light precipitation, would be here and gone in short order. Not so fast though, we'll change that up for the first work week of 2017 though.
CHANGING PATTERN: Early next week we'll see winds turn more southwesterly, we get some moisture in here ahead of a system that will be way back in Montana and the Dakotas, but impacting us nonetheless. A little bit of early de-stabilization will touch off some rain showers, some pockets may even pick up a snow shower, all of that happening on Monday after 4 PM. Here's what that could look like:
If this Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast verifies, it'll be scattered showers in the area Monday evening. As you can see, the colder air is confined to the U.P. at this time, so snow should not be an issue - until later on. We'll see this round of showers come and go, then another one on Tuesday afternoon. That's the one we'll need to watch. Colder air will be surging in along with that rain, so as temperatures fall, the snowflakes will start to as well, Tuesday evening. Changeover will be a wild card for PM drive, so be aware. I would not be shocked to see an inch or two of snow on the ground for you Wednesday afternoon or evening as that cold front pushes through.
TEMPERATURES?: Enjoy the mild stuff while you can. When that front moves through, the freezer door will be wide open! We'll see readings dip back into the 30's for Sunday and Monday, a warm up into the 40's when that wind turns more southerly and the rains come in Tuesday, then after that, you can forget about getting above 25 until the weekend at the soonest!
Here's the forecast:
New Year's Eve Night - Mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 23.
New Year's Day - Cloudy. High 39.
Monday - Cloudy, rainy. High 42.
Tuesday - Mainly Cloudy, unseasonably mild. Scattered showers. High 51.
Wednesday - Overcast and much colder. Highs only up to 22.
Thursday - Continued overcast, colder still. High 18.
Friday - Clouds, cold. High 19.
There's a look at your forecast for the last day of 2016, and the start of 2017. Have a good one! Please be safe when celebrating tonight!
What will be going on for the New Year's Eve and the start of 2017? Let's jump in and have a look.
MIXED BAG NOW: As I write this for you around 2 PM EST, visible satellite showing some stratiform clouds north of a line from roughly Detroit to Sturgis. The south zone reporting clear skies, north zone reporting clouds and overcast. Temperatures are fairly uniform, with readings in the low to mid 40's. The warm spots are along and south of I-94, with Ann Arbor, Marshall and Coldwater checking on with 44 degrees.
A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION NEARBY: While I am not seeing anything in the blog area right now, we do note a little bit of light rain northwest of Lansing, then working into the southern part of the state south of I-94...
I really don't expect this to amount to much of anything, and I further expect it to stay fairly quiet for New Year's celebrating tonight and tomorrow.
BIG PICTURE: The upper air pattern is quite zonal, with upper winds almost due west and howling across the Midwest, on the order of 90 knots across the state at 18,000 feet. That means that any disturbances that would come through, such as the one with the clouds and light precipitation, would be here and gone in short order. Not so fast though, we'll change that up for the first work week of 2017 though.
CHANGING PATTERN: Early next week we'll see winds turn more southwesterly, we get some moisture in here ahead of a system that will be way back in Montana and the Dakotas, but impacting us nonetheless. A little bit of early de-stabilization will touch off some rain showers, some pockets may even pick up a snow shower, all of that happening on Monday after 4 PM. Here's what that could look like:
If this Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast verifies, it'll be scattered showers in the area Monday evening. As you can see, the colder air is confined to the U.P. at this time, so snow should not be an issue - until later on. We'll see this round of showers come and go, then another one on Tuesday afternoon. That's the one we'll need to watch. Colder air will be surging in along with that rain, so as temperatures fall, the snowflakes will start to as well, Tuesday evening. Changeover will be a wild card for PM drive, so be aware. I would not be shocked to see an inch or two of snow on the ground for you Wednesday afternoon or evening as that cold front pushes through.
TEMPERATURES?: Enjoy the mild stuff while you can. When that front moves through, the freezer door will be wide open! We'll see readings dip back into the 30's for Sunday and Monday, a warm up into the 40's when that wind turns more southerly and the rains come in Tuesday, then after that, you can forget about getting above 25 until the weekend at the soonest!
Here's the forecast:
New Year's Eve Night - Mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 23.
New Year's Day - Cloudy. High 39.
Monday - Cloudy, rainy. High 42.
Tuesday - Mainly Cloudy, unseasonably mild. Scattered showers. High 51.
Wednesday - Overcast and much colder. Highs only up to 22.
Thursday - Continued overcast, colder still. High 18.
Friday - Clouds, cold. High 19.
There's a look at your forecast for the last day of 2016, and the start of 2017. Have a good one! Please be safe when celebrating tonight!
Sunday, December 25, 2016
Friday, November 25, 2016
Quick Look For Friday/Saturday
Good Friday Morning!
I hope you didn't eat too much turkey yesterday, even though that word, turkey, describes the weather for us for the next couple of days.
QUICK OVERVIEW: Here's what we have on tap. Cloudy across the area right now with a few spotty showers here and there, have a look at the current NEXRAD image from Grand Rapids:
Just a few spotty showers on the north side of the Lansing Metro, with more coverage as you work west on I-96 toward Grand Rapids. As the day progresses and an upper disturbance works into Michigan though, we should see those showers increase in coverage...
It would not shock me to see this fall as a bit of freezing rain or even have a few snowflakes mixed in with it, based on the forecast air temperatures right around freezing. This activity moves out and it just remains seasonably mild afterward, with a chance at some rain each day right thru the forecast window, as we can't rule out a lonely shower in the midst of the clouds.
Today - Cloudy, periods of showers, a few snowflakes may mix in. High 39.
Satuday - Mainly Cloudy, an isolated shower possible. High 43.
I hope you didn't eat too much turkey yesterday, even though that word, turkey, describes the weather for us for the next couple of days.
QUICK OVERVIEW: Here's what we have on tap. Cloudy across the area right now with a few spotty showers here and there, have a look at the current NEXRAD image from Grand Rapids:
Just a few spotty showers on the north side of the Lansing Metro, with more coverage as you work west on I-96 toward Grand Rapids. As the day progresses and an upper disturbance works into Michigan though, we should see those showers increase in coverage...
It would not shock me to see this fall as a bit of freezing rain or even have a few snowflakes mixed in with it, based on the forecast air temperatures right around freezing. This activity moves out and it just remains seasonably mild afterward, with a chance at some rain each day right thru the forecast window, as we can't rule out a lonely shower in the midst of the clouds.
Today - Cloudy, periods of showers, a few snowflakes may mix in. High 39.
Satuday - Mainly Cloudy, an isolated shower possible. High 43.
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