Sunday, December 25, 2016
Friday, November 25, 2016
Quick Look For Friday/Saturday
Good Friday Morning!
I hope you didn't eat too much turkey yesterday, even though that word, turkey, describes the weather for us for the next couple of days.
QUICK OVERVIEW: Here's what we have on tap. Cloudy across the area right now with a few spotty showers here and there, have a look at the current NEXRAD image from Grand Rapids:
Just a few spotty showers on the north side of the Lansing Metro, with more coverage as you work west on I-96 toward Grand Rapids. As the day progresses and an upper disturbance works into Michigan though, we should see those showers increase in coverage...
It would not shock me to see this fall as a bit of freezing rain or even have a few snowflakes mixed in with it, based on the forecast air temperatures right around freezing. This activity moves out and it just remains seasonably mild afterward, with a chance at some rain each day right thru the forecast window, as we can't rule out a lonely shower in the midst of the clouds.
Today - Cloudy, periods of showers, a few snowflakes may mix in. High 39.
Satuday - Mainly Cloudy, an isolated shower possible. High 43.
I hope you didn't eat too much turkey yesterday, even though that word, turkey, describes the weather for us for the next couple of days.
QUICK OVERVIEW: Here's what we have on tap. Cloudy across the area right now with a few spotty showers here and there, have a look at the current NEXRAD image from Grand Rapids:
Just a few spotty showers on the north side of the Lansing Metro, with more coverage as you work west on I-96 toward Grand Rapids. As the day progresses and an upper disturbance works into Michigan though, we should see those showers increase in coverage...
It would not shock me to see this fall as a bit of freezing rain or even have a few snowflakes mixed in with it, based on the forecast air temperatures right around freezing. This activity moves out and it just remains seasonably mild afterward, with a chance at some rain each day right thru the forecast window, as we can't rule out a lonely shower in the midst of the clouds.
Today - Cloudy, periods of showers, a few snowflakes may mix in. High 39.
Satuday - Mainly Cloudy, an isolated shower possible. High 43.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Rainy Hump Day...Better Weekend Coming
Good Morning!
Damp and chilly is the rule for the next few days, but one more very brief hit of milder air works in before we get a taste of whats to come as far as winter weather. Let's dive in and have a look at it.
RAINY, COLD: Right now in South Central Michigan, no sun to be found, but plenty of rain and low temperatures. Here's a look at that for you:
Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast for 8 PM tonight. As we lose the daytime heating, here you see the model suggesting some showers and thunder in our area if this verifies, but if you look up north of say, Mount Pleasant/Clare area, there is some snow embedded in the mass of precipitation. The second part of this is don't be surprised to see the storm track differently than what this model is thinking, and as always with winter weather, that will move your rain/snow line some.
ANY SEVERE WEATHER?: Not for the next three days, and quite honestly, we're pretty much done with severe weather in the warm season sense. Now it's time to start worrying about winter storm systems and such.
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: Saturday should be a good day and evening for goblins, ghouls and superheroes. We'll see some mixed sunshine and readings warming up into the low to mid 60's, which is about 10 degrees above the average highs of 52-55. I'd keep the umbrella handy though, because we will introduce the chance of some widely scattered or scattered showers into the picture starting Friday an right on through into the new week.
LOOKING AHEAD: After we get this system out of here, cool, with a break until the weekend, as I alluded to above. We'll see another disturbance slide across the Great Lakes just on the northern side of the international border. This will be the primary driver behind the possible raindrops over the next few days. After that, not much to speak of until November 3rd/4th. The thinking is a disturbance coming out of the northern Rockies becomes a bona fide surface low around Omaha and marches almost due east. If that look verifies, we'll see some showers and a possible storm along with it. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable, no heat waves or cold snaps expected.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:
Today - Cloudy, chilly. Showers and an embedded thunderstorm possible. High only 46.
Tonight - Cool and rainy. Lows near 38.
Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy, still a bit cool. High 51.
Friday - Periods of clouds and sun, warming. High 58.
Saturday - More sun than clouds to start, but clouds thicken throughout the day, warmer. We can;t rule out the mention of a shower or two late. High 64.
Sunday - Clearing skies, some passing clouds still around though, some widely scattered showers. Not as warm, high only 57.
Monday - Periods of clouds and sun, mild. High 61.
Tuesday - Partly sunny, warmer. High 63.
That's what we have for you today, make it a great one!
Damp and chilly is the rule for the next few days, but one more very brief hit of milder air works in before we get a taste of whats to come as far as winter weather. Let's dive in and have a look at it.
RAINY, COLD: Right now in South Central Michigan, no sun to be found, but plenty of rain and low temperatures. Here's a look at that for you:
Heavier showers just offshore from Muskegon, warmest temperature in South Central Michigan is 42 degrees in Coldwater. No sunshine until you get up toward the thumb, and they will be losing that as the day progresses.
BIG PICTURE: Let's have a look at the forecast map from the National Weather Service, and then we'll discuss a couple of things.
The big player on the field is the low over the Iowa/Nebraska line. The warm front sweeping up toward Michigan is what's triggering the showers and cloudy skies out of ahead of it. I know you're looking at that rain/snow mix forecast line that roughly follows I-96 across the state! I don't see that just yet, but the chances are definitely there!
Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast for 8 PM tonight. As we lose the daytime heating, here you see the model suggesting some showers and thunder in our area if this verifies, but if you look up north of say, Mount Pleasant/Clare area, there is some snow embedded in the mass of precipitation. The second part of this is don't be surprised to see the storm track differently than what this model is thinking, and as always with winter weather, that will move your rain/snow line some.
ANY SEVERE WEATHER?: Not for the next three days, and quite honestly, we're pretty much done with severe weather in the warm season sense. Now it's time to start worrying about winter storm systems and such.
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND: Saturday should be a good day and evening for goblins, ghouls and superheroes. We'll see some mixed sunshine and readings warming up into the low to mid 60's, which is about 10 degrees above the average highs of 52-55. I'd keep the umbrella handy though, because we will introduce the chance of some widely scattered or scattered showers into the picture starting Friday an right on through into the new week.
LOOKING AHEAD: After we get this system out of here, cool, with a break until the weekend, as I alluded to above. We'll see another disturbance slide across the Great Lakes just on the northern side of the international border. This will be the primary driver behind the possible raindrops over the next few days. After that, not much to speak of until November 3rd/4th. The thinking is a disturbance coming out of the northern Rockies becomes a bona fide surface low around Omaha and marches almost due east. If that look verifies, we'll see some showers and a possible storm along with it. Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable, no heat waves or cold snaps expected.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:
Today - Cloudy, chilly. Showers and an embedded thunderstorm possible. High only 46.
Tonight - Cool and rainy. Lows near 38.
Thursday - Continued mainly cloudy, still a bit cool. High 51.
Friday - Periods of clouds and sun, warming. High 58.
Saturday - More sun than clouds to start, but clouds thicken throughout the day, warmer. We can;t rule out the mention of a shower or two late. High 64.
Sunday - Clearing skies, some passing clouds still around though, some widely scattered showers. Not as warm, high only 57.
Monday - Periods of clouds and sun, mild. High 61.
Tuesday - Partly sunny, warmer. High 63.
That's what we have for you today, make it a great one!
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Rainy Sunday, Fall Returns Midweek...
Good Evening!
Some clouds filtering through the area with the cool down just underway after daytime highs of 70 in Lansing and Jackson. Changes on the way though, as I expect a bit of wet weather the next few days. Let's have a look at what's going on...
SEASONABLE AND MILD: We note readings touching 70 across multiple places in South Central Michigan today, that's about 10 degrees above average. Southerly flow across the area is responsible for the mild weather, and I expect us to build on that trend over the next few days. I would not be shocked to see some 80's in the area for the first half of next week. There will be a price to pay for that unseasonably warm weather though, we'll get rained on...
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MIX: That southerly flow I alluded to aloft is bringing us plenty of moist air, and we'll see a disturbance filtering through the area over the next couple of days. This will set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms for us during the first half of the week. Here's a look at the water vapor satellite:
You see the grays and brighter whites coming up from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri? That's the moisture I'm talking about that is setting up in the area. Just what the doctor ordered for some showers and storms. We also note a weak low over the Tennessee Valley, and a robust system just entering the playing field up in Washington State. That will cause the clouds we have in the area now to thicken up and it'll eventually turn overcast, then the showers and such work in.
OK, IT'LL BE RAINY, ANYTHING SEVERE?: Right now, I don't think so. Definitely some showers and garden variety thunderstorms, some of those may dump some heavy rains and have a bit of gusty winds and blowhard, but nothing aside from that for the moment. I will say that the Storm Prediction Center does have a "marginal" risk of severe weather up for a bit of far eastern Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, and the far western Upper Peninsula for tomorrow, starting at 8 AM EDT. The better dynamic support for rowdy storms will be west of us for sure.
DOUBLE DIP RAIN: Computer data is suggesting that we'll see rain anytime after 10 PM tonight in South Central Michigan, you may get it a bit sooner. I don't see any thunder here, just showers. We should catch a pre-dawn break as the first bit of rain gets out of here, but keep an umbrella with you for church or your travels Sunday morning, as more rains work in from the southwest. Scattered to even numerous showers with a few isolated storms buried in the mix will be the rule most of Sunday and into Monday. Don't be shocked by rain continuing in fits and starts until at least lunchtime Monday.
SECOND HALF COOL DOWN: The mild temperatures will slide off to the east as we get into mid-week, and fall re-enters the picture. South winds turn more west then northwest, sending readings back into the 60's for Wednesday, and mid to upper 50's by Thursday, that's actually where they should be.
LOOKING AHEAD: I normally don't mess with talking about things outside of 7 days in advance, because the skill in forecasting goes down sharply, and the computer models have some issues with their take on things, such as the GFS model likes to run a bit too cold after a week out, but I do want to put this on the table for you as food for thought. DISCLAIMER AS USUAL: ONE MODEL, ONE RUN, ONE SOLUTION. This will change in the next seven days, but we will be watching for trends.
The 540 thickness I have marked is a general break point where rain/snow changeover happens. Forecasters use it to predict a general area that would be suspect for snow. Seeing no precipitation in the FutureCast radar here, I would think that we would see readings in the 40's next Sunday. I'll watch it for you.
FUTURE OF THE BLOG: I have not made a full decision yet as to if I will keep the blog open, or close it and just use Facebook and Twitter. The straight job and a daughter busy with after-school activities take time that I would use to forecast for you, and I don't want to do it if I can't do it right. I'll have a decision in November. Rest assured that I would still post for Winter weather issues, but as far as keeping the page up and blogging like I have in the past, that is up in the air (no pun intended).
I hope you have a great Saturday night! Blessings.
Some clouds filtering through the area with the cool down just underway after daytime highs of 70 in Lansing and Jackson. Changes on the way though, as I expect a bit of wet weather the next few days. Let's have a look at what's going on...
SEASONABLE AND MILD: We note readings touching 70 across multiple places in South Central Michigan today, that's about 10 degrees above average. Southerly flow across the area is responsible for the mild weather, and I expect us to build on that trend over the next few days. I would not be shocked to see some 80's in the area for the first half of next week. There will be a price to pay for that unseasonably warm weather though, we'll get rained on...
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MIX: That southerly flow I alluded to aloft is bringing us plenty of moist air, and we'll see a disturbance filtering through the area over the next couple of days. This will set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms for us during the first half of the week. Here's a look at the water vapor satellite:
You see the grays and brighter whites coming up from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri? That's the moisture I'm talking about that is setting up in the area. Just what the doctor ordered for some showers and storms. We also note a weak low over the Tennessee Valley, and a robust system just entering the playing field up in Washington State. That will cause the clouds we have in the area now to thicken up and it'll eventually turn overcast, then the showers and such work in.
OK, IT'LL BE RAINY, ANYTHING SEVERE?: Right now, I don't think so. Definitely some showers and garden variety thunderstorms, some of those may dump some heavy rains and have a bit of gusty winds and blowhard, but nothing aside from that for the moment. I will say that the Storm Prediction Center does have a "marginal" risk of severe weather up for a bit of far eastern Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, and the far western Upper Peninsula for tomorrow, starting at 8 AM EDT. The better dynamic support for rowdy storms will be west of us for sure.
DOUBLE DIP RAIN: Computer data is suggesting that we'll see rain anytime after 10 PM tonight in South Central Michigan, you may get it a bit sooner. I don't see any thunder here, just showers. We should catch a pre-dawn break as the first bit of rain gets out of here, but keep an umbrella with you for church or your travels Sunday morning, as more rains work in from the southwest. Scattered to even numerous showers with a few isolated storms buried in the mix will be the rule most of Sunday and into Monday. Don't be shocked by rain continuing in fits and starts until at least lunchtime Monday.
SECOND HALF COOL DOWN: The mild temperatures will slide off to the east as we get into mid-week, and fall re-enters the picture. South winds turn more west then northwest, sending readings back into the 60's for Wednesday, and mid to upper 50's by Thursday, that's actually where they should be.
LOOKING AHEAD: I normally don't mess with talking about things outside of 7 days in advance, because the skill in forecasting goes down sharply, and the computer models have some issues with their take on things, such as the GFS model likes to run a bit too cold after a week out, but I do want to put this on the table for you as food for thought. DISCLAIMER AS USUAL: ONE MODEL, ONE RUN, ONE SOLUTION. This will change in the next seven days, but we will be watching for trends.
The 540 thickness I have marked is a general break point where rain/snow changeover happens. Forecasters use it to predict a general area that would be suspect for snow. Seeing no precipitation in the FutureCast radar here, I would think that we would see readings in the 40's next Sunday. I'll watch it for you.
FUTURE OF THE BLOG: I have not made a full decision yet as to if I will keep the blog open, or close it and just use Facebook and Twitter. The straight job and a daughter busy with after-school activities take time that I would use to forecast for you, and I don't want to do it if I can't do it right. I'll have a decision in November. Rest assured that I would still post for Winter weather issues, but as far as keeping the page up and blogging like I have in the past, that is up in the air (no pun intended).
I hope you have a great Saturday night! Blessings.
Friday, September 23, 2016
Feeling Like Fall...
Good Evening!
It's been far too long since I have updated this blog. I need to figure out how to fit it into my schedule, or close it down. I'll be weighing that decision over the next several days.
What we can weigh in on right now is cooler air as the first night of fall has settled in over us. Let's have a look and see what is going on...
COOLING DOWN IN MICHIGAN: With the exception of a few pockets along the south state line, you can say so long to the 70's soon for awhile. Winds will be swinging around to the northwest as the day progresses Friday, with readings topping out in the upper 60's for the most part, with places like Lansing and Ann Arbor managing to make it up to 71 on the high side. We'll see 60's for the daytime highs starting Tuesday and continuing right thru the forecast window.
WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?: It's Fall y'all! The Autumnal Equinox arrived at 10:21 AM EDT today, ushering in Fall. Seriously, what's causing all this is the change in weather pattern. Northwesterly flow pulls down seasonably cool air from Canada...
This map is the GFS FutureCast in the upper levels at 2 PM. 500 millibars is about 18,000 feet up.You see a ridge still holding on in the eastern part of the nation, extending from central Minnesota down into the Deep South. There's a deep trough digging in the Rockies and a low is nestled in the base. We'll deal with that in time, but for now, just fall-like temperatures. Let's fast-forward thru the weekend and pause at Monday, 2 PM:
Now you see the trough and associated low have progressed east out of the Rockies and across the Great Plains into the Midwest. Ridge is rebuilding in the western states, but as for us, we see an increased chance of shower and thunderstorm activity...
Here you see the low just over the border into Canada. In advance of it, showers and storms along the frontal boundary that should be draped from Michigan down into Tennessee. Just for fun let's look at a bit higher resolution forecast model, the NAM (North American Mesoscale).
The NAM is suggesting a faster timing solution right now, as it is showing the rain and such basically out of lower Michigan by 8 AM Monday morning, which is good news for the AM drive to work or school. Here's another map that shows the expected precipitation the next 5 days, valid thru 8 PM Tuesday:
South Central Michigan looks to pick up about a half inch of rain on the high side with a bit more as you head west toward the lake. I don't expect any major washouts over the next few days.
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: I expect seasonably mild temperatures in the lower 70's until the storm system works into and through the area on Monday. Once we get on the back side of that, you can forget about 70's for a little while. We aren't done with the mild weather yet, but you'll have no doubt that it's fall. Monday through Wednesday will feature the best chances of precipitation.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Springport.
Today - Mainly cloudy skies with a chance of scattered showers or a pop-up storm. High 73.
Tonight - Continued cloudy, a stray shower may linger, lows near 58.
Saturday - Just an occasional peek of sun, we still can't rule out the chance of a shower. a bit cooler than Friday. High 70.
Sunday - Continued overcast with just the occasional break in the clouds. High 72.
Monday - Cloudy skies with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two in the PM. High 71.
Tuesday - Clouds still blanket the area, still the mention of a stray shower possible. Cooler. High 61.
Wednesday - Very limited sunshine, an isolated shower possible, High only 60.
Thursday - Partly to mainly cloudy, continued seasonably cool. High 62.
There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great Friday! Blessings.
It's been far too long since I have updated this blog. I need to figure out how to fit it into my schedule, or close it down. I'll be weighing that decision over the next several days.
What we can weigh in on right now is cooler air as the first night of fall has settled in over us. Let's have a look and see what is going on...
COOLING DOWN IN MICHIGAN: With the exception of a few pockets along the south state line, you can say so long to the 70's soon for awhile. Winds will be swinging around to the northwest as the day progresses Friday, with readings topping out in the upper 60's for the most part, with places like Lansing and Ann Arbor managing to make it up to 71 on the high side. We'll see 60's for the daytime highs starting Tuesday and continuing right thru the forecast window.
WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?: It's Fall y'all! The Autumnal Equinox arrived at 10:21 AM EDT today, ushering in Fall. Seriously, what's causing all this is the change in weather pattern. Northwesterly flow pulls down seasonably cool air from Canada...
This map is the GFS FutureCast in the upper levels at 2 PM. 500 millibars is about 18,000 feet up.You see a ridge still holding on in the eastern part of the nation, extending from central Minnesota down into the Deep South. There's a deep trough digging in the Rockies and a low is nestled in the base. We'll deal with that in time, but for now, just fall-like temperatures. Let's fast-forward thru the weekend and pause at Monday, 2 PM:
Now you see the trough and associated low have progressed east out of the Rockies and across the Great Plains into the Midwest. Ridge is rebuilding in the western states, but as for us, we see an increased chance of shower and thunderstorm activity...
Here you see the low just over the border into Canada. In advance of it, showers and storms along the frontal boundary that should be draped from Michigan down into Tennessee. Just for fun let's look at a bit higher resolution forecast model, the NAM (North American Mesoscale).
The NAM is suggesting a faster timing solution right now, as it is showing the rain and such basically out of lower Michigan by 8 AM Monday morning, which is good news for the AM drive to work or school. Here's another map that shows the expected precipitation the next 5 days, valid thru 8 PM Tuesday:
South Central Michigan looks to pick up about a half inch of rain on the high side with a bit more as you head west toward the lake. I don't expect any major washouts over the next few days.
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: I expect seasonably mild temperatures in the lower 70's until the storm system works into and through the area on Monday. Once we get on the back side of that, you can forget about 70's for a little while. We aren't done with the mild weather yet, but you'll have no doubt that it's fall. Monday through Wednesday will feature the best chances of precipitation.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Springport.
Today - Mainly cloudy skies with a chance of scattered showers or a pop-up storm. High 73.
Tonight - Continued cloudy, a stray shower may linger, lows near 58.
Saturday - Just an occasional peek of sun, we still can't rule out the chance of a shower. a bit cooler than Friday. High 70.
Sunday - Continued overcast with just the occasional break in the clouds. High 72.
Monday - Cloudy skies with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two in the PM. High 71.
Tuesday - Clouds still blanket the area, still the mention of a stray shower possible. Cooler. High 61.
Wednesday - Very limited sunshine, an isolated shower possible, High only 60.
Thursday - Partly to mainly cloudy, continued seasonably cool. High 62.
There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great Friday! Blessings.
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