Some Severe Possible

Good Morning!

Heads up today, we have a "marginal" risk of severe weather in lower Michigan today.  Let's look at the map from the Storm Prediction Center...

As you can see, just across the lake, a "slight" risk of severe storms that goes from north of Milwaukee. down into Chicago, down toward Bloomington-Normal and Springfield.  For us, the marginal risk roughly follows I-96 from west to east.

We don't expect any tornadic weather, but be ready for some hail and straight-line wind damage as the primary modes of severe.

Cloudy skies today, with periods of showers and thunderstorms, some could be severe.  High 72.

Tonight - Clouds, storms tapering off to the occasional shower.  Low 48.

Another Winner, Then Cooler...

Good Evening!

Another beautiful day in the area, with the warmest temperatures of the Spring being posted so far.  Looking around the area right now, we see mid to upper 70's across the board with clear skies.  Let's talk about what's on tap.

MORE FULL-ON SPRING WEATHER:  We'll keep the pattern that we have been in going for a few more days.  The upper air pattern is set up in what's called an Omega Block right now.  Let's look at it:

The ridge is stuck in a traffic jam thanks to the upper low well offshore in the Atlantic.  Until that thing starts moving, the pattern can't progress.  The mild southerly flow under the ridge will persist for a bit longer yet, and the low that dropped more serious snows out west will stay over that part of the world, keeping them cold and cloudy.  Result for Michigan?  More great weather!

ANOTHER WARM ONE TOMORROW:  With the ridge still in place, I fully expect a repeat of today, with sunshine and readings back up into the upper 70's lower 80's.  Just the slightest hint of an upper wave tries to do a ridge runner bit and scoot around the periphery of the ridge, but with no dynamic support to start anything, maybe just a couple of PM clouds in the area and that's about it.  Lows only roll back to the mid 50's tomorrow night.

COOL IT OFF JUST A BIT:  We'll see just the beginnings of some movement in the big pattern I showed you above.  The ridge manages to elbow east a bit, turning our winds more westerly and dropping the temperatures back to something more seasonable.  You can expect readings to hold in the 60's Tuesday, with some passing clouds, and maybe a lonely shower somewhere.  I don't see any big headaches right now though.  Keep the 60's in the area through Wednesday, but then we see a change as the upper pattern finally resets...

WET THURSDAY?:  The system that unloaded snow in the Rockies finally gets to move into the Midwest on Thursday, as the upper ridging breaks down some and the flow creeps along in zonal fashion.  The more direct west to east winds bring that system in with some scattered to even numerous showers on Wednesday, temperatures do hold in the 60's until the frontal boundary passes through.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Get the system through and out on Friday, with cooler readings topping out at 59.  Then we see the flow turn more southerly again, pushing our temperatures back up into the 68-71 range for Sunday, with a high of 61 for Saturday.  I really think you'll be in good shape to plan outdoor activity this weekend, just have the jacket or hoodie in the car for early in the day.

I hope that you have a great night and a great Monday tomorrow!

Quiet After This...

Hello There!

The wet and dreary weather that we have had will continue, as the storm that created blizzard conditions in Colorado and unloaded 2 feet of snow in it's wake there is now about here with us.  Let's have a closer look...

CLOUDS AND RAIN:  Here's a look at the current satellite and radar composite image:

You can see the large precipitation shield stretching all the way back to northern Illinois.  Even though the radar returns are coded as all rain by color here, you need to know that along and north of I-96 between Grand Rapids and Lansing, that is snow.  On the other side, south of a line from Fenton to Lansing, that's all rain.  I suspect it will remain that, there could be a touch of freezing precip mixed in but I don't expect much if any of that.

STORM WORKING THROUGH:  Here's a look at the upper air setup.  You can see the big player in the game right now, that storm system coming out of the Rockies...

The base of the trough is in north central Missouri, and it will be pulling a cold front along the southern tier of states that will cause some severe weather problems for our friends in the Deep South - a couple of tornadoes are possible in Dixie Alley today.  Nothing like that for us though.  Just the rain, then on the back side of the system, some wraparound snow is possible into tonight, but that should not amount to a whole lot if any does show up.

FAIRLY QUIET AFTER THIS:  As this storm system departs, I don't really see a whole lot to talk about until a week from today...

Here's the next weather maker, the last day of March.  A deep 980 millibar surface low centered over the Minnesota/Wisconsin line will have rain out ahead of it in the warm sector, and some snow behind it on the back side in the cold air.

I hope you have a great rest of your day!

Another Storm As Winter Fights The Calendar?

Good Afternoon!

A few clouds in the area, but still some sunshine.  We'll see our clouds increase as the day progresses, and by midweek, a storm system bringing rain, and possibly some snow to the northern counties in the blog area.  Let's have a look at it all.

MIXED SUN RIGHT NOW:  Fairly uniform temperatures in the area right now, and readings from 37 to 40, depending on where you look.  I'll show you the visible satellite and the current conditions...

A band of clear skies separates passing clouds that are located from roughly I-94 south, and from just off I-96 north across the state, with northwesterly breezes.  The good news is that there's no precipitation in those, and I expect things to stay that way for the next day or two.  You basically see today's forecast in the picture, just move the temperatures up into the low to mid 40's and you'll have it.

SWITCH IT UP MID WEEK:  Tomorrow morning, we note a fairly broad surface low out over the northern Great Plains start to sharpen up and put it in gear to move east.  Before it does that, it actually retrogrades a bit to the southwest and deepens.  Some rain showers will develop in Michigan courtesy of a disturbance working through the larger flow, even though the low is way out by Colorado and Nebraska!  Have a look at this:

If this verifies, the GFS is telling us to expect showers south of a line from roughly Pentwater to Bay City.

That surface low holds fairly steady at 990 millibars, and then it hopscotches due east until it hits the triple point where Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri all come together, then it turns more northeast...

If this is right, the low is just west of Chicago at 8 AM Thursday, and it has most of the Lower Peninsula in rain.  Now as that low continues it's trip northeast, we could see some wraparound snow on the back end of the as that system gets away from us.  Let's change the lens we're looking at this through and get a bit more detailed.

Here's a look at the NAM forecast model at 8 PM Thursday.  You see here the wraparound snow working into Michigan from the west as the low departs and we get more into the cold sector, and you also see more intense rains for far southeastern Michigan and into Ohio.  This is why we have a Winter Storm Watch active for Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham counties.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  After we get this out of here, we bring in another band of rain and snow late Friday/early Saturday as a disturbance slides north of Michigan proper, staying largely in Canada.  It will pull a trailing front that will have a narrowly focused band of precipitation, looks like rain showers that flip to snow after frontal passage as the colder air gets settled in.  Beyond that, indications are that we stay rain/snow free until the end of the month.

Forecast:

Today - Increasing clouds PM, we can't rule out a stray shower or two around sunset, high 51.

Tonight - Some scattered showers developing, lows hold steady around 48.

Tuesday - Mainly cloudy, more scattered showers about, high 55.

We'll have the extended forecast for you later,  Have a great day!

Warm & Wet....

Good Evening!

Mild conditions have moved into the area, with some cloudy skies.  Temperatures still holding up into the 40's and even a couple of 50's as we get into Tuesday morning.  The next issue to worry with will be rain and possible flooding.  Let's talk about it.

FLOOD ADVISORY ACTIVE: 

FLOOD ADVISORY 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 
749 PM EST MON MAR 7 2016 

...The flood advisory continues for the following rivers in Southwest 
Lower Michigan... 

Grand River At Ionia affecting Ionia County 
Grand River At Lowell affecting Kent County 
Sycamore Creek At Holt affecting Ingham County 
Looking Glass River Near Eagle affecting Clinton County 
Maple River At Maple Rapids affecting Clinton County 
Thornapple River Above Hastings affecting Barry County 

...The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a flood 
advisory for the following rivers in Southwest Lower Michigan... 

Red Cedar River At East Lansing affecting Ingham County 

.Snowmelt today and tomorrow and rain Wednesday into Thursday will 
cause several rivers to rise above bankfull. There is the potential 
for rainfall to exceed one inch by Thursday. The following forecast 
is based on observed and forecast 24 hour precipitation as well as 
snowmelt runoff. The expected rainfall for Wednesday into Thursday 
will be incorporated into the flood advisory update Tuesday morning. 
River levels may crest higher than currently predicted if heavy 
rainfall materializes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

Safety message...Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. 

A flood advisory means minor flooding is possible and rivers are 
forecast to exceed bankfull. If you are in the advisory area remain 
alert to possible flooding... or the possibility of the advisory 
being upgraded to a warning. Report observed flooding to local 
emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this 
information on to the National Weather Service.

Plenty of water will be on the move the next couple of days.  Here's why:

BRING ON A RIDGE:  Ridging is set up over Michigan right now, with warm moist air from the south being transported in via winds thru the bottom 5 to 7 thousand feet.  Readings will be in the low to mid 60's through Wednesday, perhaps even Thursday.  Along with that, a virtually guaranteed shot at showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday as well.

STILL SEASONABLY MILD:  Average temperature is 44 degrees in this part of the world this time of year, and I don't see daytime highs falling out of the 50's at least through the weekend!

I'll have more for you later.