From Spring To Winter In A Couple Of Days...

Good Morning!

(Note:  You’ll recall me mentioning that I was recently the victim of bankcard fraud; some nice people were kind enough to hack my account and clean me out.  Until I get the damage from that swept up, some of the graphics of radar and such will be from alternate sources.  The data feed that drives Tru-Track Doppler is not free.  Additionally, my primary backup also has some outages for certain products.  We’ll get it done though!)

With that public service message out of the way, we have clouds in the area right now that will give way to some broken sunshine as the day progresses.  Let’s take a deeper dive and see what we have in store for the next few days!

THE THAW IS ON!:  That being said, please be careful walking or driving during the early morning!  All the snow that melts during the day refreezes at night, sometimes in clear fashion, leading to an icy adventure on the local sidewalks and streets!

I busted way low on the forecast for yesterday.  It actually got warmer under the cover of darkness with warm air on southerly winds advecting (moving in) into Jackson and south central Michigan as a whole.  The high in Jackson was recorded just before 10 PM last night at the airport, 44 degrees!  I’ll take that kind of a bust ANYTIME.  I’d rather have you prepared for colder weather and not need to be so bundled up than the other way around.  I do try to be accurate, because after all, what good is a forecast that doesn’t more or less verify?  At least it was a fairly straightforward exercise this time to see why it happened.

Here’s a look at the national temperature reports.  This is the mildest map I have seen in a couple of weeks!

The warmth continues through Thursday from what I can see here, with readings in the low to mid 40’s through then.  Varying clouds will change that by a couple of degrees.  Average is around 36 in this part of the world, and we slip below that and back into winter this weekend, on the back side of a low and associated cold front that brings us…

OUR FIRST SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER:  For the first time in 2014, we have a risk area from the Storm Prediction Center to be concerned with.  Let’s look at this graphic.

You see the break point is just south of I-94.  Tomorrow you’ll want to be around a good source of warning information, just in case we do see some severe weather.  The best shot at truly severe storms appears to be down into Ohio & Tennessee, where they may see a spin-up tornado buried in a line of thunderstorms, as well as hail and strong wind.  Here, for now, we can’t rule out some gusty straight line winds that could break off a small tree or some power lines.  We’ll keep tabs on that for you as we get closer to Thursday.

I have to say that I am not terribly concerned at the moment with severe weather in Michigan.  Forecast models are not bullish at all on sufficient destabilization this far north for anything to get a foothold and really crank up.  If you’re talking about plain vanilla thunderstorms, a couple of them strong with some gusty winds, absolutely that could happen.  This threat goes away Friday, as we get into the cold air behind the front.  As the low and cold front work into and through, we cool down on the back side of it dramatically.  This time of year if you get into unseasonably mild weather, you usually pay the piper at some point with some vigorous storms.  We give 20 degrees back by the time we get into next week, and that brings us…

BACK TO COLD WINTER WEATHER:  Temperatures below normal, down into the mid 20’s and perhaps even colder as we note Arctic air building north of the border, and Old Man Winter ready to take the door off the hinges again…

Here's a look at forecast model output as labeled on the graphic.  You can see the cold stuff headed back at us as soon as Friday afternoon!

Enjoy the moderate weather while it’s here.

RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES MIKE?:  Yes.  We do need to talk about that.  Let’s look at the Weather Prediction Center 5 Day forecast map, that will take us into the weekend.  I could use the 7 Day, but the skill level tapers off quite a bit after 5 days…

It’s a very wet look for most of the US east of the Rockies.  Over an inch of liquid in this part of the world, and that seems reasonable.  Thankfully a good chunk of that falls as either rain, or snow that doesn’t stick to anything because of warmer ground.  Now I do expect that what falls will accumulate in some fashion, by the weekend, even if only minimal.  But for now, we’ll call it rain and snow showers mixed, mainly rain tomorrow, then back to snow for the weekend.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT CLINTON, EATON SHORTLY!!!

If you live or work in Clinton or Eaton County, you best brace for some white-out conditions!  Intense snowfall that could produce an inch per hour or better will be working into the area over the next 30 minutes unless it slackens off and reloads.  Use caution as you head out from work!

Slammed In The Snow Box...

Here's a different look at NEXRAD radar - this is a dual polarization product.  It uses radar to estimate how much liquid precip has fallen in the last hour.  It gets updated every 5 minutes, when the NWS radar completes it's volume scan.  Where it comes in handy for us here is that it can give us a pretty darn good guesstimate of where the most intense activity is occurring, especially in a diffuse radar return.  You can see that in this snap shot I have marked up the track of the intense snow, and circled the core of it all (yellow shading).

Jackson and South Central Michigan, don't worry, our time will come for the heavy stuff later on this afternoon and evening.  Now bear in mind while you look at these features that the whole thing will also have an eastward direction of travel.  This smaller mesoscale feature of the core of the storm continues to move in the direction indicated as it heads east.

They Call It Snowy Monday...

Good Morning!

Clouds have worked into the area, ahead of some significant winter weather, a system that will drop as much as six inches of snow (with locally heavier amounts possible), over the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that, we get into some milder weather and start thawing some of this out, at least for a little while.  Let’s take a deeper dive and see what’s going on…

SNOW ON THE WAY:  The entire state of Michigan, as well as a good portion of the Midwest is under either a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning from the National Weather Service today.  Have a look at the watch/warning map from the National Weather Service:

That makes it pretty much cut and dried as to what will happen.  Regarding snow, my amounts from last night are out the window with the addition of the entire state to the winter weather alerts.  Let’s take a peek at my updated forecast maps:

That’s my predicted snowfall map.  I will say right out of the gate that this is the best estimate based on the available data as I write at 10 AM today.  (Disclaimer: I HAVE NOT consumed any broadcast media National Weather Service data, except for the products from the Storm Prediction Center and the advisories from the NWS field offices in Grand Rapids, Northern Indiana, and Detroit.  This excludes the forecast models of course; they’re run by the NWS and NOAA.)

The advisories officially kick off at noon.  You can add about an inch, maybe two as you move west toward the lake, and some spots will see up to an inch more locally than what the band you’re in here says.  The most intense snow should occur between about 4 PM and 10PM tonight where you could see snowfall totals as up to an inch per hour for a couple of hours in that window.  Thankfully, all of this should be pretty well out of here by 10 AM tomorrow, and then we can get to work on thawing it.

YOU SAID WARMING MIKE, WHAT’S UP WITH THAT?:  OK, here’s what I see.  After this storm works through the area during the next day and a half, high pressure and a bit of a ridge manage to fight their way in from the south and get at least a toe in the door.  That’ll be enough to get us above the freezing mark and back to seasonable readings, which typically hover right around 35.  We’ll even exceed average for a bit, with readings Thursday up into the low and in some spots mid 40’s!  The concern with that is a rapid melt with all of the snowpack, plus the fact that those temperatures will be accompanied by some showers, means that flooding becomes a real concern.

SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD THE WEEKEND?:  Well, perhaps.  The Storm Prediction Center is identifying a risk for severe weather for Thursday and Friday of this week.  The Thursday bulls eye, as it’s drawn now, just clips a sliver of far southern Michigan, so basically the state line counties from say US-12 south are in play…for now.

The area outlined in red here is the one I'll be eyeballing over the next couple of days.

I fully expect that to get pulled south and out of Michigan as SPC analyzes fresh data.  The forecast computers are mentioning about a 3 in 10 shot at thunderstorms, but frankly, I don’t put much stock into it at the moment.  The key will be to see what that southerly air looks like as we get closer to that point.

Here’s a look at a GFS model forecast map.  (Please excuse the crude drawing and the source – when my bankcard got hacked and my money stolen, I wasn’t able to re-up my data provider subscription.  That’ll be after I get the $ back.)

You can see the sharp wind and temperature change for Thursday evening as the front heads in from the west.  Around that time will be the best chance for any storms.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leoni Township:

And here's a look at the extended forecast taking you through the weekend...

That's it for now.  Let's sit back and gather ourselves to get behind the shovels and snow throwers once again after this storm comes through.  Warmer weather is coming, I promise!  Have a great day! Blessings.

Get Ready For More Snow

Good Evening.

Another round of tough winter weather is on the way.  Let’s go straight to it and see what’s going on.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:  The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weqther Advisroy that starts at noon tomorrow for all counties in the blog except Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston and Shiawassee.  (NOTE: Don’t be shocked to see one tomorrow, as all of those counties are handled by the National Weather Service Detroit office).  It starts at noon tomorrow and runs through midday Tuesday.   Six inches or better of snow is expected to fall in that time frame.

SNOW STARTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON:  Clouds start rolling in around daybreak, continue to thicken as the day progresses, and then we should start to see snow before the drive home tomorrow evening from work.  From what I have seen the heaviest snow will start to fall between 9 and 1 AM Tuesday.  Snow will increase in intensity from west to east, and then it will start tapering off after about 10 AM Tuesday.  Bear in mind that if the system speeds up or slows down, the time solutions I mentioned go out the window.  If the low tracks north or south of the projection I am using to build this forecast, the same thing occurs – snow totals get thrown out as well.

Regarding snowfall amounts, from what I can see, the heavier snow should be along and south of I-94.  This will be the area where upwards of 6” will fall.  North of I-94 to the I-96 corridor will see the 3-6” snows.  North of say, DeWitt should see amounts up 3”.

AFTER THE SNOW COMES SOME WARMING:  On the heels of all this snow we finally start to see some change in temperature, with enough warmth to start attacking the snowpack.  Average temperature in this part of the world is about 35 degrees, and we stay at or above start starting Tuesday and lasting into the weekend.

Forecast: Tonight – variably cloudy skies, chilly, lows dip to 5 above.

Monday – cloudy, snow starts to filter in after lunchtime, high 29.

Monday night – cloudy and snowy, heavy snow between evening drive and midnight, lows near 19.

Tuesday – snow tapering off after lunchtime, 3-6” of accumulation total depending on location, warmer, high 35.

There’s a look at your forecast – I will have more on the snow situation for you tomorrow.