Good Morning!
For the first time in many hours, there are no Tornado watches active in the US. Regrettably, five people have been killed in Woodward, OK from a tornado that hit there shortly after 1AM EDT. People were saying they had no warning and didn't hear the sirens. Let me rant here briefly...If your only source of information for a Tornado Warning impacting your community is an outdoor siren, you're risking your life. PERIOD. You need a weather radio or a smartphone app. Thanks, enough ranting.
Everyone's eyes are turned toward the Plains to see what the damage was from the over 100 tornadoes reported yesterday. However we still have South Central Michigan to tend to, so we'll do just that.
Showers and thunderstorms moved through the area early this morning. We'll have a break, and then those are expected to re-fire later. At this point we don't expect anything severe. Elevated, possibly. By elevated we're talking heavy downpours, gusty winds and intense lightning. Could there be hail? Possibly small hail. We'll have to keep an eye on that, with temperatures forecast for around 70 or better, and humidity, it won't take a whole lot to cook up some strong storms. Let's take a deeper dive:
SEVERE WEATHER: None expected here, just a general risk of thunderstorms that has already been realized. The slight risk for Michigan is confined to a sliver of the north central part of Michigan at the lake shore, up near Ludington and Manistee. Here's a look at the Storm Prediction Center's Day One and Two outlooks:
Notice that the Day 1 "moderate" risk bullseye has been moved out some, it now covers parts of WI, IA, and MN.
Day 2, just a general risk for the eastern half of lower Michigan.
Day 3, not much to say, just a low end 5% risk through the Carolinas into Georgia.
RAIN: I tell you what, the rain totals have been harder to nail down than finding a $100 bill out on the street! The models are changing the 5 day rain totals for south central Michigan every day. Here's a look at what the National Weather Service is figuring for the next 5 days:
Our area finishes up at a half inch, tops.
TEMPERATURES: Warm today, mild tomorrow, then the bottom falls out of it all. The NAM and GFS (two of our friendly computer models) are printing 73 and 71, respectively. I average them out and go with 72 for today. 60's for Monday, then we tumble back into the 40's and 50's. We'll discuss that more below, because it's time for the local forecast for Jackson County.
For today, mostly cloudy, with periods of showers and thunderstorms, some could be strong this afternoon and evening, high of 72, winds SSW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, 70% chance of showers and perhaps a roaming thunderstorm, nighttime lows near 60.
Back to work on Monday under mainly cloudy skies, 60% chance of showers and a lone thunderstorm is possible, high near 66, winds westerly 10-20 MPH.
Monday night, a chance of showers until around 2AM, then cloudy skies start to clear off after, a slight chance of frost leading up to daybreak, lows near 37, west winds calm to 7 MPH.
Tuesday, mainly clear and much cooler, high temperatures near 52 with NW winds 10-20 MPH.
Wednesday, sunny, a bit warmer, high temperatures around 61.
Thursday, mainly clear skies, clouds increase in the afternoon with a slight chance of showers, high temperatures near 63.
That's a look at your weather for this morning, stay tuned for updates later on today.
Have a wonderful Sunday! Blessings.
