Heat On The Move...Warming Up Again Today

Good Morning!


When we last talked, I was telling you about a 30% risk bullseye within a "slight" risk category for severe weather today.  The Storm Prediction Center has updated their forecast, and as a result, the risk blobs have moved and changed shape.  We'll pop the hood as usual, but go in a little different order today, starting with the severe weather outlook and working backward.  Off we go!


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center has left the slight risk in, but the 30% risk has moved and become basically a north zone concern.  Here's a look at the map with the 30% severe wind risk area, inside the red potato-shaped ring.  I have the county map underneath it for you.

Severe Wind Forecast Day 1, North Zone is in, South Zone out at the moment.

As you can see, parts of Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Clinton and Shiawassee are in the potential for severe and damaging wind gusts today.  Thankfully, hail and tornado probabilities are low.


Tomorrow, we still have a slight risk, but the better odds move into Ohio and Pennsylvania.  I suspect SPC will push the risk up to moderate from slight at some point during the day today.  Here's a look at the maps for days two and three for you:

Day 2 SPC Forecast, don't be shocked if the 30% red area becomes a Moderate risk before the end of the day.

Day 3 SPC Forecast, just low 5% chance for extreme SE Michigan, this would be a South Zone matter, a Lenawee and  possibly Washtenaw issue.

RAIN:  This is a bit drier look than we have seen in past forecasts, and it won't do much to help the drought that we're in, but still, any rain is better than none.  The National Weather Service is predicting between three-quarters of an inch and an inch of rain over the next five days.  here's a look at that map for you:

Computer modeling indicates a chance of rain in the forecast for later today through Friday; in the south zone anything we get will have plenty of space between showers, the north zone looks to have a tad bit more uniform coverage.  


Currently Grand Rapids NEXRAD is showing some showers and storms off in West Michigan.  They are weakening as they move east, so we may get a little something, but it shouldn't amount to a lot.  We could see those rebuild this afternoon and evening with daytime heating and moist, unstable air for storms to nosh on, so they could pack a punch if they get rolling.  Here's the current radar picture for you:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD image.  These storms have fizzled as they move into the dry air ahead of the advancing warm front.  Hot and steamy when the rain ends!

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures that are not quite as warm as they have been in past days, along with lower dewpoints and southeasterly breezes for now with clouds rolling in, but then as a warm front moves through, we see temperatures and dewpoint values start to climb once more, and winds swing back around to the southwest on the back side of the front, pushing hotter, more humid air closer in here again.  We'll see temperatures climb back into the 90's with heat index values getting into the upper 90's or better as the day wears on.  That trend should stay with us for the next day or two.  Welcome back to hot and muggy.


Here's a look at the visible satellite for you:

Visible Satellite - you can sort of pick out where the hot, muggy air is on the back of the warm front, in this image it's about to move on-shore and into West Michigan (Benton Harbor, Holland).  Northern Illinois is already heating up, hence the clear skies with just a bit of high cirrus.

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Parma:


For today, periods of clouds and sunshine, a chance of a widely scattered or scattered shower  or storm earlier in the day as a warm front moves through, then becoming hot and muggy, showers and storms could re-build this afternoon, high 90, SE winds become SW 8-15 MPH.

Tonight, partly cloudy skies, breezy, still the chance of widely scattered or scattered showers or a couple of roaming thunderstorms, especially north, nighttime lows only roll back to 73, winds SW 8-15 MPH.  Any storms that form could be severe, with high winds as the primary concern.


Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm is still possible, warm and muggy, high 91, winds SW 7-14 MPH.


Thursday night, mostly cloudy skies, we still can't rule out the chance of a widely scattered shower or lonely thunderstorm in spots, nighttime low of 64, winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Friday, mostly cloudy skies, breezy, cooler and less humid, a widely scattered or scattered shower or storm is possible, high temperature 84, winds NE 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, breezy, high 81.


Sunday, mostly sunny skies with a couple of passing clouds, pleasant, high 84.


Monday, sunny to start, then clouds increase slowly as the day progresses, continued seasonably warm, high 85.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great hump day Wednesday!  Blessings.