Severe Storm Update

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Clinton County is canceled as the storm has moved on to Shiawassee County.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SHIAWASSEE

The National Weather Service Detroit has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 7:45 PM.

Hazard is winds up to 60 MPH, radar indicated, damage to buildings and trees is likely.

Storms will be near Perry & Owosso at 6:50, Corunna at 6:55; Juddville and Vernon at 7 PM, Lennon and Byron at 7:55 PM.  Move inside and let these storms pass!  Stay away from windows.

Severe Thunderstorm Update

Fowler, St. John's, Westphalia - the hail looks like it's perhaps not as intense, but the wind and rain still are.  Head inside until this passes!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - CLINTON

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
* UNTIL 700 PM EDT
* AT 603 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FENWICK...
AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...               ST. JOHNS...          ASHLEY...
ITHACA...             ELSIE...              DEWITT...
SEVILLE TWP...        LAFAYETTE TWP...      FOREST HILL...
ELM HALL...           POMPEII...            NORTH STAR...
ELWELL...             RIVERDALE...          SUMNER...
BRIDGEVILLE...        BANNISTER...          WHEELER...
...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

SEVERE STORMS -NORTH ZONE

Clinton County, all indications are that you'll be dealing with a severe thunderstorm in the next hour.  Be prepared to move indoors until this passes, as the storm I am watching has done serious damage and knocked out power in Kent County.

Expect: Winds of 80+ MPH, hail up to the size of half-dollars, and intense rain.

Check here on the blog,the companion Facebook page, and Twitter (@wxMikeD) for updates!

Mike

A Hint Of Early Summer...Then Back To Reality

Good Morning!

Fantastic Spring weather in the area today I sit at the keyboard.  Plenty of sunshine to go around, and reading that could top out as high as 71 depending on your location.  Enjoy it, because we will see some sharp changes as we start the new calendar week.  Let's have a look:

SUNSHINE AND WARMTH START IT OFF:  Sunshine and blue skies with some high clouds start off the day today.  We'll keep things like that and move up the thermometer nicely during the morning and early afternoon hours.

CLOUDS DEVELOP THEN CHANGES BEGIN:  More substantial clouds start to filter in during the afternoon hours.  Ceilings start to lower somewhat, and we introduce a chance of scattered showers with perhaps some thunder into the area.  Have a look at the current radar composite:

You see an ongoing unruly mob of showers and storms out in Wisconsin and northern Illinois.  Those will continue to migrate almost due east and impact Michigan later today and into tonight.  At the moment, I don't see anything severe in the cards, but again, some thunder is possible.  Have a look at the Storm Prediction Center map for today:

Michigan is in a "general" risk for thunderstorms today, with a slight risk of severe storms across the lake, including southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, most of Iowa, and a bit of Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas.

STORMY SUNDAY?:  Looking ahead, we'll keep periods of showers and a few storms in the forecast through tonight and into Sunday morning.  I expect a bit of broken sunshine in spots into early afternoon, but we then bump up the chance of showers and storms for south central Michigan.  It will be a similar setup as today, scattered showers with a chance at a few buried thunderstorms.  I expect these will be more vigorous than what we have in the area for today and tonight, as a twin barreled low pressure system moves over us, and pulls in MUCH cooler air behind it.

A CHILLY START TO THE NEW WEEK:  Once we get our Sunday weather maker out of here Monday, we start the new week with readings that are 15 degrees below normal instead of 15 degrees above!  I'll also mention that readings will be chilly enough to support snow.  Yes, I said it.  Unfortunately, I do have to mention a chance of snow flurries or even a dusting Monday as well.  Thankfully, anything that does fall as snow should be light and non-accumulating, since we've had a few days of warmer weather to thaw the ground and not leave a base for snow to stick.  I'll know more about that threat tomorrow, as the forecast models do their thing and refine their estimates.  The silver lining in all that?  Once the cold front moves off to the east, clearing skies and seasonable temperatures that start climbing again after Tuesday.  I expect a return to our mild 60's by Thursday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

And the extended outlook:

That's how it all stacks up.  I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Great Spring Weekend Weather!

Good Morning!

Let's get right into it...

SOME REAL SPRING:  Sunny skies and seasonably warm conditions on tap for today and tomorrow.  A few clouds here and there, but not much to break up the abundance of sun we'll see today, with readings climbing well into the 60's.  The nights will still be cool enough for a jacket for a bit yet, but that's to be expected this time of year!  Temperatures climb into 70+ territory by Sunday, but we'll pay the piper for that with weather that is...

RAINY AND COOLER BY NEXT WEEK:  If you need to get out and rake up last fall's leaves off the lawn so your grass can green up and look nice, now is the time!  Today and through most of the day Saturday, we stay dry and pleasant.  Clouds start working in on Saturday afternoon, then Saturday night into Sunday, some showers and thunder enter the area.  Sunday right now appears to be pretty damp, with low pressure tracking over northern Lower Michigan, keeping us cloudy and wet, and much cooler on the back side of the system.  Come Monday, we give back nearly 20 degrees of warmth, with highs only into the middle 50's!

SEVERE WEATHER?:  Not just yet.  Still early in the season for severe weather threats to migrate this far north in the country.  Typically that sort of thing is confined to the Plains and down in into the Deep South and Dixie Alley.  We do note that for the weekend, the whole Lower Peninsula is in a general thunderstorm risk according to the Storm Prediction Center, with the severe risk areas well removed from the state.

FORECAST:

Today - Sunny, pleasant, a few clouds.  High 64.  Wind SW 5-10 MPH

Tonight - A mix of stars and clouds, low 40.  Wind S 6-12 MPH.

Saturday - Sunny skies, Clouds start to thicken in the afternoon, warm.  High 69.  Wind SSW 7-14 MPH.

Sunday - Cloudy, periods of showers and some thunder, warm, high 71.

There's a look at the weekend for you!  We'll have more detail soon!  Blessings!

Just A Quick One...

Good Morning!

Nothing fancy here, just a look at what's on tap for today and tomorrow.

A QUICK HIT OF SHOWERS:  Looking at forecast data, we'll see periods of scattered showers with and outside chance of a rumble of thunder between 2 and 6 PM today.  Not a major problem mind you, just enough to make you need wipers in the car or an umbrella if you're on foot.

QUICK FORECAST:  Sunny to start, increasing clouds with scattered PM showers, high 63, wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, clearing skies, not as cool, low 36.  Wind SW 3-7 MPH.

Friday, mainly sunny, some clouds, high 63.

There you go.  As time permits I'll take my usual deeper dive and see what's running for you.  Have a great day!

Splendid, Then Damp, Great Weekend On Tap!!!

Good Morning!

Bright crystal clear blue skies in the area this morning, with wonderful weather on tap through tomorrow.  We'll add some showers and such to the mix as we head into a weekend with temperatures that could touch 70.  Let's have a look...

FORECAST MODELS WERE OPERATING WHILE IMPAIRED:  I busted WAY low on my temperature forecast yesterday.  I predicted 50, and the official high recorded just before 4 PM at the airport in Jackson was 61.  11 degrees off doesn't cut it on my watch!  All of the data available to me indicated much cooler air would be here for longer than it actually was.  The simplest explanation I have is that warmer air from the southwest stepped on the gas and barreled in here ahead of schedule.  The models were clearly missing something when the initial weather conditions were dropped into them and they set off to work.  I am still learning also, therefore it's more difficult for me to see when the models are out to lunch as opposed to a degreed met or forecaster with many years experience.  I'll get better.  This was a learning exercise.  Moving on...

PLENTY OF SUN ALL OVER THE PLACE:  Look at this crystal clear satellite image.  There's just a few clouds way northwest and way southeast.  The white you see in Michigan is un-melted  snow and ice on the lakes!

FINALLY, SOME SPRING WE CAN HANG OUR HATS ON:  How does some mid to upper 60's sound for you?  That's what the forecast data indicates, though I am leery of doing much more than mentioning the chance of a 70 right now (darned models)!

Milder air filters in as we get a more zonal flow.  That means the air travels basically from west to east across the US, without being shunted north and diving back into the country (colder air) or diving south then coming into the area from off the desert southwest (very warm air).  This look is just nice, mild Pacific air coming at us, with a few waves and disturbances working through that will drag surface boundaries with them.  Almost anytime you get one of those tracking through, you'll introduce a chance at some showers and storms...

SPEAKING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS:  Michigan gets in on a crack at at some showers and thunder tomorrow.  Have a look at this forecast map from the Storm Prediction Center:

As you can see, nothing major to worry about until late in the weekend, but it is the season for April showers (and storms) to bring flowers in May!  If we get anything Thursday, these will be widely scattered to scattered showers and storms.

A FINE WEEKEND ON TAP:  Once we get through Thursday, with it's chance of scattered showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two, get ready for some sunshine and VERY nice weather through the weekend!  Average highs around the area are right around 57 degrees this time of year, some places could tack as many as 11-13 degrees onto that number, making for a 70 as a possibility.  We'll have to see how it plays out, as personally, after the abysmal performance the other day, I have my doubts about that number.

Here's a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is thinking regarding rain for the next five days:

As you can see, some scattered showers in the area adding up to about an inch and a half of precipitation, the lion's share of this looks to show up tomorrow.

LOOKING AHEAD:  What can I say?  Mild weekend with a lot of sun, perhaps the occasion to mention a scattered shower or two.  Sunday night into Monday though, look out.  A vigorous frontal system comes through, bringing in showers and thunderstorms, then sledgehammering the mercury, sending us back into late winter or very early Spring readings, with temperatures that may not leave the middle 40's!  Here's a look at a forecast temperature map:

You'll want to perhaps cover your tender plants Sunday night or Monday night.  I'll detail that more as we get closer to it and the forecast computers refine their ideas on how it all plays out.  This whole cold snap idea should be gone Wednesday, if the forecast models have a grasp of the situation.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and South Central Michigan:

There's a look at your forecast!  I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Put A Damper On It...

Good Morning!

Mainly cloudy throughout the area with a few peeks of sunshine as I write this post.  We'll replace that sun with some rain showers and cooler air this evening and into tonight, but things do improve for the second half of the week.  Let's take a deeper dive:

APRIL SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT & TOMORROW:  Visible and water vapor satellite imagery show the low pressure system marching northeast as we speak.

Here you see where I have marked the approximate location of the low and the track it's expected to take.  By daybreak tomorrow it should be just northeast of Detroit.

Instead of the center of low pressure moving right over us, it misses just east.  No matter though, the end result is cool and damp for lower Michigan, especially south of a straight line from Benton Harbor to Saginaw.  Shower activity should be here in time for evening drive (or perhaps just after), and it continues through mid-morning tomorrow before departing east.  Beyond today, the next credible chance of any widespread shower activity is toward the end of the week.

SEASONABLE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:  Forecast data indicates the temperatures in the area should be at least in the ballpark right through the entire period.  Average in Jackson is 57, and we're a few degrees cool today and tomorrow, but by the weekend, 70 is knocking at the door!  Won't that feel refreshing?  Average it all out and you're fairly close to that 56-60 range that we tend to be in this time of year.  High amplitude ridging works in from the west and keeps us above normal for the weekend, but early next week, the next rain-maker comes in and brings colder air from Canada with it.  I expect us to return to the lower 50's briefly.

NO SEVERE HERE:  We don't have to worry about severe weather in this part of the world for the next three days, though we do note that the Storm Prediction Center has drawn in a "slight" risk for the southern half of Ohio and the east half of Kentucky, with slivers of Indiana and West Virginia in the mix as well.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - cloudy, developing showers this afternoon and evening, high 51.  Wind SE 4-8 MPH.

Tonight - cloudy, scattered to numerous showers through about 6 AM, low 35.  Wind SE turning SW 5-9 MPH.

Tuesday - cloudy to start, then slowly clearing after midday, high 50.

There's a short-term forecast for you, when I get the time to go into a longer outlook and put graphics in, I will.  have a great day!

Milder Weather, A Damp Day Or Two...

Good Evening!

Let's fix one thing right out of the gate.  The forecast that I put out here earlier was actually spot on, with the exception of being about a half-day too quick.  The system performed as expected with the rain, freezing rain and such, but then it slowed up some on the way here.  So instead of clearing Friday night, we cleared out during the day today and actually ended up with a decent day.  I'm still calling it a bust though.  I'll get better.

Clear and chilly tonight, but what a gorgeous day tomorrow and even nicer week we have on tap...after we work through some showers and such early on.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have running under there:

GOOORRRGEOUS WEATHER FOR SUNDAY:  If you like abundant sunshine and warming temperatures, then jump all over tomorrow!  We see the thermometer push 60 in some locations under bright blue skies.  Ridging is nosing back into the area, bringing milder air with it - for now.  Average temperature in this part of the world falls right around 55 degrees this time of year; I'm predicting 58 for the high in Jackson.  Lansing and Battle Creek, you guys should be right around that figure as well.

A BIT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WEEK:  We see changes in the area around lunchtime Monday.  A surface low organizes over the ArkLaMiss and moves this way, tracking almost due north.  Clouds work in during the late morning and early afternoon, with some showers and perhaps an outside chance of a rumble of thunder in place by the time we get to evening drive.  While I don't expect this to be a major event by any stretch of the imagination, we'll get around an inch of rain in most parts of the area through late Tuesday morning.  After that, temperatures trend down briefly, with low 50's the rule.

REBOUNDING READINGS FROM MID-WEEK ON:  The hover around 50 bit for daytime highs is only a brief thing, as from Wednesday on, ridging and southerly flow gain control in the area, sending readings into the upper 50's with some spots touching 60 or better by the end of the week!  I am nowhere close to being ready to put a hat on this, but the GFS forecast model data is suggesting partly sunny and 63 for next Saturday!  Won't that feel nice?

SEVERE WEATHER:  Not in this part of the world.  All quiet here for tomorrow and Monday, with no thunder expected according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Tomorrow the risk is confined to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.  The severe risk moves to the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas for Monday.

Here's the forecast:

There's your forecast!  Enjoy your Sunday!