Afternoon Update...

Good Afternoon.

The wet weather is on the way out, but the cold will linger for another day or two.  Taking a look at forecast data now here's my take on the next few days:

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temps running 10-15 degrees below normal for the next 24-36 hours.  By the time we get into Sunday, we'll see a nice warm-up.  Expect a high around 45 tomorrow, then 55 on Sunday, and into the middle 60's to start the new week.  We get some more cold air on Tuesday as a system  works through, sending us back into the 40's but then we get into holding the line on more seasonable readings later in the week.

RAIN:  We have had plenty of that for awhile - too much in fact, as we have flooding issues to work through in the area.  Good news is that we stay dry until Monday evening and into Tuesday.  When that frontal system moves in early next week, we get our next credible chance at some rain, clouds start to thicken Monday evening, then Tuesday and Wednesday will have some showers and maybe a thunderstorm.

SEVERE WEATHER:  The system that came through yesterday and had everyone concerned about a significant severe weather event has moved off to the east and is now impacting the eastern seaboard.  Once this moves offshore, it doesn't look like there will be anything in the works regarding severe weather for the next several days.

Detailed extended look for you later this evening, but here's what we have on deck weather-wise the next 24 hours:

Have a great one!

Sharply Colder, Flurries Possible...

Good Morning!

I am glad the severe weather threat fizzled yesterday.  Just a little bit of sideways rain in Jackson then quiet.  Now we are just in the rain, which is causing some flooding issues throughout the area.  Have a look at the list of alerts:

FLOOD WARNING:  As late as April 25th, 2 AM

• Jackson
• Clinton
• Shiawassee
• Ingham
• Branch

WIND ADVISORY:  Until 8 PM EDT Tonight

• Branch
• Hillsdale
• Lenawee
• Calhoun
• Jackson
• Washtenaw
• Eaton
• Ingham
• Livingston
• Clinton
• Shiawassee

SUMMARY:  A surface tracks thru the Upper Peninsula and drags a cold front along with it, keeping skies cloudy today and into tonight, and opening the door for a shot of polar air coming in from Canada as a trough digs it's way through the Midwest, keeping temperatures in the 40's with perhaps a 50 or two.  We don't start to warm up again until late Sunday or early Monday.  Clear and chilly will be the rule for the weekend, definitely have a jacket!

Forecast:  Today, cloudy, some lingering showers persist throughout the day and into the evening, high 45, wind turning WNW increasing to 25-35 MPH.

Tonight:  Cloudy, maybe a stray shower, don't be surprised to see a snowflake, low 28.  Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

Saturday, clearing skies, chilly, high 45, wind NW 7-14 MPH.

More detailed forecast forthcoming this afternoon.  I hope you have a great day!

WEATHER UPDATE

The Storm Prediction Center has shuffled the deck regarding the severe weather threat.  The threat for Michigan is pretty well over, just the chance at some garden variety thunderstorms throughout the rest of the day and into this evening.  We will have to watch for some high wind developing as the frontal passage continues.  Have a look at the revised Day 1 SPC Outlook:

Notice the Moderate Risk is gone.  There are still tornado watches active to the south and west of us.

TORNADO WATCH UPDATE

Ingham and Jackson Counties have had the Tornado Watch canceled.  I expect this trend to continue throughout the balance of the afternoon as the front moves eastward.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - LIVINGSTON

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Livingston County until 2:30 pm.  Wind gusts up to 60 MPH are associated with this storm.  Storm is tracking NW at 50 MPH.

TORNADO WATCH CANCELED

The National Weather Service has canceled the PDS Tornado Watch that affected Branch and Hillsdale counties.

Weather Update

My thoughts are that as the squall line progresses east and brings the cooler air in, you'll see the National Weather Service pull the plug on the tornado watches after the storms clear the area.

TORNADO WATCH PARTLY CANCELED

The National Weather Service has canceled the Tornado Watch affecting the following counties:  Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton.  It is still in effect for all other counties in the blog.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT - TORNADO WATCH ISSUED

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for all of the lower two-thirds of lower Michigan until 6 PM EDT.  This includes every county in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone:

Lenawee, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Clinton, Shiawassee --

This is NOT a PDS watch at this time, but that doesn't mean that you should take it any less seriously.  Have a good source of weather and warning info close by you.  Branch and Hillsdale Counties continue to be under a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch until 5 PM.  See the maps:

Branch & Hillsdale, you're in this PDS Watch.

All other counties in the blog, you're in on this watch.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT - PDS TORNADO WATCH ISSUED

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a TORNADO WATCH for the following counties in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone:

Branch, Hillsdale

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) watch:  Details below:

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 123
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   935 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   
   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     EASTERN ILLINOIS
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA
     SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
     NORTHWEST OHIO OHIO
     LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
     500 PM EDT.
   
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
   
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
     A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
   SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE
   INDIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   

You need to pay attention to the weather and have the ability to get a warning!

Editorial Note: It would not surprise me at all to see this watch extended north and east, to cover Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Eaton and Ingham Counties.

Severe Weather Possible Today...

Good Morning!

We have a potential situation developing regarding severe weather in Michigan today.  Just to let you know, there is a MODERATE risk of severe weather in the area today, have a look at the Storm Prediction Center Map:

Storm Prediction Center Day One Outlook Map

Categorical risk map broken down by counties, the southern 2/3 of Lower Michigan is under a risk of some sort.

To break it down for you, counties inside the red bordered area have a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a random point.  Those same counties have a 45% chance of winds in excess of 58 MPH associated with thunderstorms, and a 15% chance of hail that is quarter-sized or larger.

WHAT YOU NEED TO DO

• Pay attention to the weather in your area.
• Have a plan that includes where you'll go and what you'll do in the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning or a Tornado Warning.
• Have a reliable way to get wind of a weather warning (NOAA Weather Radio, Media, Smartphone App).
• DO NOT RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN TO GET A WARNING!  By the time those sound, it may be too late - or, the siren is sounding in your area and the severe threat is elsewhere in your county.
• Charge your laptop and cell phone batteries - severe thunderstorms can and usually do cause at least a few power outages.
• Secure or move inside the house or garage anything that you don't want to go looking for, as storm winds may relocate them for you.
• Stay tuned here to the South Central Michigan Weather Zone for updates.  You can also follow me on Twitter, my handle is @wxMikeD -- NOTE:  I will be working my regular job so may not be able to post as quickly as I would like.  Also, I am NOT a degreed meteorologist yet - the final word rests with OFFICIAL sources of information (i.e. broadcast media and the National Weather Service).

More to come!

Weather Update

Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw counties, get ready for some strong thunderstorms in the next half hour or so. Heavy rain, wind and frequent lightning will be the rule.

SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY

Good Evening.  The National Weather Service has issued a couple of Special Weather Statements for strong thunderstorms in the blog area, currently there is one about to enter the north zone of the blog.  It has heavy rain, gusty wind and it has produced hail.  It's tracking NW at 45 mph.

The rest of South Central Michigan can expect periods of showers and a few thunderstorms, some of these will be heavy.  Stay close to a good source of weather warning information for the next few hours until the evening cooling damps out the convective potential and the atmosphere stabilizes.

Back To Spring - Damp & Dreary...

Good Morning!

I have missed all of you, but things are still crazy with the living situation and moving and such.  Too much commuting, and not enough time!  I hope that you have filed your taxes already or that all you need to do is drop them in the mail.  If it's not marked before midnight tonight, then you've got a bit of a problem.  Weather could be a problem for the next few days as well, let's dive deeper and see what we are talking about...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES:  After the cold wintry air that brought sleet, graupel, and snow to many spots over the weekend, more seasonable south-southeasterly flow is pulling warmer air up into Michigan.  Most readings south of I-96 are running from 40-55 degrees at this hour.  Have a look at the surface map:

The thinking is the warming trend should continue, but I don't think we get quite as warm as forecast models are suggesting.  The latest model output has the computers liking mid to upper 60's for the area.  Battle Creek 68; Marshall 69; Jackson 68; Lansing 68.  That's a little ambitious for my money.  A surface low centered back over Minnesota and far NW Wisconsin should make tracks northeast, and exit the US just grazing the west end of the Upper Peninsula.  That thing is dragging a frontal boundary and associated cloudy skies with it, so some rain could fall and keep temperatures down.  My take is 58-65 as a good range of high temperatures today in the area. Right around 60 is average this time of year, and after this system moves through, we drop back into the 50's briefly, then warm up nicely into Thursday.  I am expecting a 15-25 degree drop in high temperatures between Thursday and Saturday.  More on that below.

RAIN:  A pretty wet stretch on tap for South Central Michigan.  Clouds linger today with a couple of spotty showers and maybe a roaming thunderstorm.  Tonight appears to be the better bet for rain, with a front being pulled through by the north of the border low tracking across the area, and that thing isn't in a hurry to get out of here.  Have a look at the 5 Day Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Map

4.2 inch bullseye over Michigan City, Indiana and back into Illinois.  3.5 to 4" expected throughout most of lower Michigan, expect some flooding over the next week to 10 days.  After we get this first system out of here, a trough with some Canadian air eventually lines us up for the weekend.  In front of that, more showers and thunderstorms possible midweek, then the trough pushes a full-on surface low ahead of it, and that low pulls another cold front across us Friday.  This is the one that will drop our temperatures for the weekend and give us a shot at some strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER:  We note that a significant severe weather event occurred two years ago today in Dixie Alley (MS, AL) causing damage and some fatalities in that area.  Thankfully, nothing that organized right now anywhere in the US to mention, and just a shot at garden variety thunderstorms for us here in Michigan.  Now on the 17th, that changes.  Have a look at the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 map:

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

A Moderate risk this far out in the Spring is something to sit up and pay attention to.  The last time we had one of those this time of year that I recall was 4/26-4/27/11, leading up to the 2011 Super Outbreak that killed 252 people in Alabama alone.  Thankfully, the Moderate risk doesn't affect Michigan, but if you have friends or loved ones in that red risk bubble, let them know that something is cooking weather-wise and they need to pay attention!  And outdoor sirens DO NOT COUNT!  A smartphone app or weather radio is the way to go.

CLOSER TO HOME:  Grand Rapids NEXRAD shows some lonely showers off to the north and northwest of us, I fully expect a few of those to develop in this area around lunchtime or later...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

And here's a look at the clouds in the area on the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Grass Lake:

Today, aside from maybe a hint of early afternoon sunshine, mainly cloudy skies, a few scattered showers, maybe even a pop-up thunderstorm, seasonably mild, high 63.  Wind S 8-16 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers and a couple of thunderstorms, lows roll back to near 46.  Wind S 8-16 MPH.

Tuesday, continued mainly cloudy, scattered showers and a hit or miss thunderstorm.  High 58.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday night, a bit of clearing, colder, lows roll back to 40, wind NNE 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, more clouds than sun, seasonable, we can't rule out a few stray afternoon showers, high 63.

Thursday, some mixed sunshine, a chance of afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, some could be strong, warmer, high 70.

Friday, cloudy skies, more afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, cooler, high 60.

Saturday, some clearing, much cooler, high 51.

Sunday, mainly sunny skies, seasonably mild, high 58.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great back to work Monday! Blessings.