Back To Spring - Damp & Dreary...

Good Morning!

I have missed all of you, but things are still crazy with the living situation and moving and such.  Too much commuting, and not enough time!  I hope that you have filed your taxes already or that all you need to do is drop them in the mail.  If it's not marked before midnight tonight, then you've got a bit of a problem.  Weather could be a problem for the next few days as well, let's dive deeper and see what we are talking about...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES:  After the cold wintry air that brought sleet, graupel, and snow to many spots over the weekend, more seasonable south-southeasterly flow is pulling warmer air up into Michigan.  Most readings south of I-96 are running from 40-55 degrees at this hour.  Have a look at the surface map:

The thinking is the warming trend should continue, but I don't think we get quite as warm as forecast models are suggesting.  The latest model output has the computers liking mid to upper 60's for the area.  Battle Creek 68; Marshall 69; Jackson 68; Lansing 68.  That's a little ambitious for my money.  A surface low centered back over Minnesota and far NW Wisconsin should make tracks northeast, and exit the US just grazing the west end of the Upper Peninsula.  That thing is dragging a frontal boundary and associated cloudy skies with it, so some rain could fall and keep temperatures down.  My take is 58-65 as a good range of high temperatures today in the area. Right around 60 is average this time of year, and after this system moves through, we drop back into the 50's briefly, then warm up nicely into Thursday.  I am expecting a 15-25 degree drop in high temperatures between Thursday and Saturday.  More on that below.

RAIN:  A pretty wet stretch on tap for South Central Michigan.  Clouds linger today with a couple of spotty showers and maybe a roaming thunderstorm.  Tonight appears to be the better bet for rain, with a front being pulled through by the north of the border low tracking across the area, and that thing isn't in a hurry to get out of here.  Have a look at the 5 Day Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Map

4.2 inch bullseye over Michigan City, Indiana and back into Illinois.  3.5 to 4" expected throughout most of lower Michigan, expect some flooding over the next week to 10 days.  After we get this first system out of here, a trough with some Canadian air eventually lines us up for the weekend.  In front of that, more showers and thunderstorms possible midweek, then the trough pushes a full-on surface low ahead of it, and that low pulls another cold front across us Friday.  This is the one that will drop our temperatures for the weekend and give us a shot at some strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

SEVERE WEATHER:  We note that a significant severe weather event occurred two years ago today in Dixie Alley (MS, AL) causing damage and some fatalities in that area.  Thankfully, nothing that organized right now anywhere in the US to mention, and just a shot at garden variety thunderstorms for us here in Michigan.  Now on the 17th, that changes.  Have a look at the Storm Prediction Center Day 3 map:

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

A Moderate risk this far out in the Spring is something to sit up and pay attention to.  The last time we had one of those this time of year that I recall was 4/26-4/27/11, leading up to the 2011 Super Outbreak that killed 252 people in Alabama alone.  Thankfully, the Moderate risk doesn't affect Michigan, but if you have friends or loved ones in that red risk bubble, let them know that something is cooking weather-wise and they need to pay attention!  And outdoor sirens DO NOT COUNT!  A smartphone app or weather radio is the way to go.

CLOSER TO HOME:  Grand Rapids NEXRAD shows some lonely showers off to the north and northwest of us, I fully expect a few of those to develop in this area around lunchtime or later...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

And here's a look at the clouds in the area on the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Grass Lake:

Today, aside from maybe a hint of early afternoon sunshine, mainly cloudy skies, a few scattered showers, maybe even a pop-up thunderstorm, seasonably mild, high 63.  Wind S 8-16 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers and a couple of thunderstorms, lows roll back to near 46.  Wind S 8-16 MPH.

Tuesday, continued mainly cloudy, scattered showers and a hit or miss thunderstorm.  High 58.  Wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday night, a bit of clearing, colder, lows roll back to 40, wind NNE 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, more clouds than sun, seasonable, we can't rule out a few stray afternoon showers, high 63.

Thursday, some mixed sunshine, a chance of afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, some could be strong, warmer, high 70.

Friday, cloudy skies, more afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, cooler, high 60.

Saturday, some clearing, much cooler, high 51.

Sunday, mainly sunny skies, seasonably mild, high 58.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great back to work Monday! Blessings.