Have a wonderful weekend!
Saturday, May 25, 2013
Great Holiday Weekend!
Just enough time today to post the updated seven day forecast for you - it features a beautiful holiday weekend, and some clouds on Monday as we celebrate the unofficial start of SUMMER!
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Seven Day Forecast
Here'a look at your extended forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Grass Lake:
Have A GREAT day!
Have A GREAT day!
Clear & Chilly...
Good Morning!
With some available time to sit and feed the blog, time to catch up on what's been happening and let you know what to expect as we head into the weekend, the last one of unofficial Spring.
Some strong and severe weather has moved through the last couple of days as you know, more so in west and northern lower Michigan than through the area the blog covers. We finally got some of that yesterday, with some strong to severe thunderstorm activity. I drove through what I am fairly certain was outflow related to a severe storm in Lenawee county yesterday. Winds were up around 40-50 MPH and small limbs were down on US-127 southeast of Jackson. We don't expect any more rough weather, but it will be unseasonably cold for the next couple of days. Let's take a deeper dive and see why:
TEMPERATURES: The upper wave that aided and abetted our storms, helping them become severe over the last couple of days is finally moving off to the east, as is the base of a trough. All of the wind is coming from the north half of the compass for the next day or two, and with upper air dynamics as they are, the door is cracked for some chilly polar air to filter all the way down here from northern Canada. If you recall the seven day outlook, I predicted clearing for the tail end of the week and temperatures back into the 60's. The clearing is delayed and temperatures will be cooler than forecast earlier. You'll need a jacket for overnight and early morning, as temps the next two days will be just a touch above freezing for the lows. Let's have a look at the current surface temperature map to see where we stand...
You can see the cold air out west, that's connected with a heavy duty cold-core upper low spinning in the Pacific Northwest. Here in Michigan, you see the red freezing line just across the border, indicating freezing temperatures lurking. In fact, the northern half of the state is under a Frost Advisory for tonight. No, that is not a typo. A Frost Advisory in late May! The GFS computer model is suggesting we dip into the mid 30's during the overnight hours, and highs top out right around 60 for the next couple of days as well. As the trough moves away, we fall under the influence of high pressure, with a ridge building in. That brings us back up to seasonal levels as we get closer to Memorial Day. Temperatures should be below the average which is right around 74 until almost mid week next week, then we get back into seasonable upper 70's or lower 80's.
RAIN: After we get through today and tonight, rain chances are virtually nil for the weekend and right on until next Tuesday, and even then, from the perch right now, that will be a low probability, just the mention of a stray shower or two. Here's a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:
As you can see, not a lot of rain expected the next several days here, I say the bulk of what's showing here is in the next 12-24 hours. The seven day map shows rain totals just over an inch, but my confidence is low in that solution at this point. We'll see if that holds up. If it does, then we're looking at a possibly wet Memorial Day weekend.
SEVERE WEATHER: After being in a "slight" risk box the last few days, the next three should be quiet in the blog area, as we will be under the influence of high pressure. That being said, I will show you the day one risk map for today from the Storm Prediction Center...
SPC has the extreme southwest part of Oklahoma and north central Texas under the gun today, with moderate risk of severe weather. I personally hope this doesn't verify, they have had enough severe weather in that part of the world for quite awhile!
Satellite showing plenty of cloud cover in the area, but if you look, clear skies to the northwest, we should be seeing those late this evening and into tomorrow. Also - some gravity wave clouds in Wisconsin and northern Michigan:
Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar showing some showers about in the area...
And here's the forecast:
Today, cloudy, unseasonably cool, a few showers move through that should be gone by nightfall or shortly thereafter, high only 57. Wind NW 7-14 MPH.
Tonight, cloudy to start but clouds thinning, unseasonably cold, lows all the way down to 36. Wind N 5-10 MPH.
Friday, sunny, cool, high 63. Wind N 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, clear and cold, lows near 34. Wind N 3-6 MPH.
Saturday, sunny, pleasantly cool, high 68.
Sunday, continued sunny and pleasant, high 69.
Monday, clouds increase during the day, not much change in temperature, high 68.
Tuesday, cloudy, warmer, a chance of a few scattered showers, high 76.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, maybe a peek or two of sun, still the chance of a stray shower or two, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great day! Blessings.
With some available time to sit and feed the blog, time to catch up on what's been happening and let you know what to expect as we head into the weekend, the last one of unofficial Spring.
Some strong and severe weather has moved through the last couple of days as you know, more so in west and northern lower Michigan than through the area the blog covers. We finally got some of that yesterday, with some strong to severe thunderstorm activity. I drove through what I am fairly certain was outflow related to a severe storm in Lenawee county yesterday. Winds were up around 40-50 MPH and small limbs were down on US-127 southeast of Jackson. We don't expect any more rough weather, but it will be unseasonably cold for the next couple of days. Let's take a deeper dive and see why:
TEMPERATURES: The upper wave that aided and abetted our storms, helping them become severe over the last couple of days is finally moving off to the east, as is the base of a trough. All of the wind is coming from the north half of the compass for the next day or two, and with upper air dynamics as they are, the door is cracked for some chilly polar air to filter all the way down here from northern Canada. If you recall the seven day outlook, I predicted clearing for the tail end of the week and temperatures back into the 60's. The clearing is delayed and temperatures will be cooler than forecast earlier. You'll need a jacket for overnight and early morning, as temps the next two days will be just a touch above freezing for the lows. Let's have a look at the current surface temperature map to see where we stand...
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| US Surface Temperature Plot |
RAIN: After we get through today and tonight, rain chances are virtually nil for the weekend and right on until next Tuesday, and even then, from the perch right now, that will be a low probability, just the mention of a stray shower or two. Here's a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast Map |
SEVERE WEATHER: After being in a "slight" risk box the last few days, the next three should be quiet in the blog area, as we will be under the influence of high pressure. That being said, I will show you the day one risk map for today from the Storm Prediction Center...
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| SPC Day 1 Severe Outlook, valid through 8 AM Friday morning. |
Satellite showing plenty of cloud cover in the area, but if you look, clear skies to the northwest, we should be seeing those late this evening and into tomorrow. Also - some gravity wave clouds in Wisconsin and northern Michigan:
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| Visible Satellite Image |
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| Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar |
Today, cloudy, unseasonably cool, a few showers move through that should be gone by nightfall or shortly thereafter, high only 57. Wind NW 7-14 MPH.
Tonight, cloudy to start but clouds thinning, unseasonably cold, lows all the way down to 36. Wind N 5-10 MPH.
Friday, sunny, cool, high 63. Wind N 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, clear and cold, lows near 34. Wind N 3-6 MPH.
Saturday, sunny, pleasantly cool, high 68.
Sunday, continued sunny and pleasant, high 69.
Monday, clouds increase during the day, not much change in temperature, high 68.
Tuesday, cloudy, warmer, a chance of a few scattered showers, high 76.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, maybe a peek or two of sun, still the chance of a stray shower or two, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great day! Blessings.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Quick Look For Tuesday
Good Morning!
Full day on deck for me today, so here's a quick look at the forecast:
Full day on deck for me today, so here's a quick look at the forecast:
I will do my best to stay ahead of any severe weather that develops but the day job comes first.
Also, PLEASE - say a prayer and send a good thought to our neighbors in Moore and south OKC as they recover from being flattened by what will be likely an EF4 or EF5 tornado yesterday afternoon.
Have a great day!
Monday, May 20, 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED
We dodged a bullet. The National Weather Service has cancelled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all counties but Washtenaw and Livingston. There is an active Warning in Livingston County that will expire when storms move out of the area. Updated forecast will be up this evening.
Storms Kicking Off In The Blog
Battle Creek, strong to severe storm is pointed right at you and should be arriving anytime now. Watch for heavy wind and hail.
Storms Firing
While all is still quiet in South Central Michigan, you can't say the same up north. Look at this line of storms between US-131 & US-127 northeast of Grand Rapids.
This is what I think other parts of Michigan will be seeing later this afternoon and into the evening hours.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED
Ok, the first weather watch of the day is up. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM for the entire Lower Peninsula except the bottom row of counties. Branch, Hillsdale and Lenawee counties can sit this one out for now.
Stay alert and aware of the weather today!
A Wet First Half Of The Week...
Good Morning!
The warmest weather thus far of 2013 will enter the area today...along with it, some scattered showers and thunder, these could get severe later this afternoon and into tonight. Quite a bit to talk about, so let's get it started!
TEMPERATURES: Warm, moist, Gulf air is riding in on southerly flow, and we'll only see the mercury climb today, with temperatures right around 90. Humidity will also be a factor, as we'll see dew points rising into the lower 60's, making for a sticky, muggy afternoon. We'll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in this airmass, thanks to a shortwave upper disturbance working through the larger system. Places that are able to score some rain today should see just a touch of relief. Have a look at the current temperatures around the nation:
We don't really start to bring the humidity and dew point values back down until Wednesday, as the surface low and it's associated slow moving cold front finally work their way into and through the area. On the backside of it all, we transition into a more early to mid-spring weather motif, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's, climbing back into the 70's in time for the weekend.
SEVERE WEATHER: You'll notice that the severe weather section is second today instead of rain in the discussion. That's because Michigan is in the mix for possibly severe weather today and tomorrow. For today, we'll see some strong storms and such during the afternoon hours, and forecast data indicates that there will be a quality environment for them to work in, so I would not be surprised to see them go severe. Have a look at the risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center:
Primary risk according to the Storm Prediction Center will be for hail and damaging wind, but, all modes of severe weather are on the table for this afternoon and tonight. There isn't much of a cap to hold off storm development, and we expect sufficient sunshine to fire off some storms. The question is will they remain scattered and cellular in nature, or will they develop and congeal into an unruly mob of storms. If they stay cellular, hail and perhaps a tornado. If they muster and become a linear system, expect wind damage with possibly a small, buried tornado in the line. The threat appears to be more limited for tomorrow, as other factors, including some cloud cover, that means less daytime heating, as well as ongoing convection elsewhere nearby may steal some energy from the system and temper the risk somewhat. We'll keep an eye on it and update as necessary. Just as a heads up, I will be working my day job today, so if we get into a severe situation, updates may not be as timely or frequent as I would like. Have a good source of official watch/warning information at hand, and as always, outdoor sirens DO NOT COUNT.
RAIN: I fully expect showers and storms in the area by dark tonight. Depending on which model you're asking, forecast data is suggesting showers and storms developing as early as 3 PM in the north zone, with it filling in as afternoon turns into evening. Others have it more hit or miss. I'm predicting scattered afternoon showers and storms, some could be severe, and due to the spread in forecast data, anytime after 3:30 it will be game on. In the 12 years I have lived in Michigan, our storms in this part of the world seem to kickoff between 3 and 7 PM, so that's my arrival window. Of course, your mileage will vary due to cloud cover, wind and such. Let's look at the Weather Prediction Center forecast map:
Plenty of rainfall expected between now and the end of the work week. Look at that 2.8" bullseye just west of Lansing! Keep an umbrella handy, and don't be surprised to see a touch of flash flooding. After that, break out the bug repellent. The rain really doesn't get out of here until Thursday, when we clear off and set up for a refreshing weekend.
Here's a look at the visible satellite image:
And here's the forecast:
For today, hazy sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing by dark, some could be severe. Very warm, high 88. Wind S 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, continuing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, again, some could be severe, lows only drop to near 65, wind SSW 5-15 MPH, stronger in/near storms.
Tuesday, mainly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms, high 82. Wind SSW 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday night, cloudy, still some showers and thunderstorms about, lows near 61, wind SW 5-15 MPH.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, perhaps a peek or two of sun, more showers and thunderstorms as the surface low and cold front finally make their move through the area cooler, high 80.
Thursday, slowly clearing skies and much cooler, refreshing. Some spots may still pick up a stray shower. High 68.
Friday, sunny and pleasantly cool, high 70.
Saturday, sunny and splendid, high 73.
Sunday, mixed sunshine, continued cool. high 68.
There's a look at your forecast for the next 7 days, i do hope that you have a great start to your week! Blessings.
The warmest weather thus far of 2013 will enter the area today...along with it, some scattered showers and thunder, these could get severe later this afternoon and into tonight. Quite a bit to talk about, so let's get it started!
TEMPERATURES: Warm, moist, Gulf air is riding in on southerly flow, and we'll only see the mercury climb today, with temperatures right around 90. Humidity will also be a factor, as we'll see dew points rising into the lower 60's, making for a sticky, muggy afternoon. We'll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in this airmass, thanks to a shortwave upper disturbance working through the larger system. Places that are able to score some rain today should see just a touch of relief. Have a look at the current temperatures around the nation:
 |
| Take a look at the 70's already nosing in here, Jackson was unofficially at 72 shortly after 9 AM! |
SEVERE WEATHER: You'll notice that the severe weather section is second today instead of rain in the discussion. That's because Michigan is in the mix for possibly severe weather today and tomorrow. For today, we'll see some strong storms and such during the afternoon hours, and forecast data indicates that there will be a quality environment for them to work in, so I would not be surprised to see them go severe. Have a look at the risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center:
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| SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Risk |
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| SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Risk - I would not be surprised to see at least part of Michigan, if not all, get pulled out the "slight" category between now and tomorrow - see why below. |
RAIN: I fully expect showers and storms in the area by dark tonight. Depending on which model you're asking, forecast data is suggesting showers and storms developing as early as 3 PM in the north zone, with it filling in as afternoon turns into evening. Others have it more hit or miss. I'm predicting scattered afternoon showers and storms, some could be severe, and due to the spread in forecast data, anytime after 3:30 it will be game on. In the 12 years I have lived in Michigan, our storms in this part of the world seem to kickoff between 3 and 7 PM, so that's my arrival window. Of course, your mileage will vary due to cloud cover, wind and such. Let's look at the Weather Prediction Center forecast map:
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| 5 Day Rainfall forecast, valid thru 8 AM Saturday. The lowest amounts are still right around an inch and a half for the next five days in the blog area! |
Here's a look at the visible satellite image:
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| A bit of haze as well as some clouds evident in this shot. |
For today, hazy sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing by dark, some could be severe. Very warm, high 88. Wind S 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, continuing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, again, some could be severe, lows only drop to near 65, wind SSW 5-15 MPH, stronger in/near storms.
Tuesday, mainly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms, high 82. Wind SSW 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday night, cloudy, still some showers and thunderstorms about, lows near 61, wind SW 5-15 MPH.
Wednesday, mainly cloudy, perhaps a peek or two of sun, more showers and thunderstorms as the surface low and cold front finally make their move through the area cooler, high 80.
Thursday, slowly clearing skies and much cooler, refreshing. Some spots may still pick up a stray shower. High 68.
Friday, sunny and pleasantly cool, high 70.
Saturday, sunny and splendid, high 73.
Sunday, mixed sunshine, continued cool. high 68.
There's a look at your forecast for the next 7 days, i do hope that you have a great start to your week! Blessings.
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