Not Quite As Hot, But More Humid...

Good Morning!


Some mid-level clouds greet us in Jackson this morning...at least we still have power.  Over 2 million people from Indiana to DC were put in the dark as a derecho blew through, associated with an organized band of thunderstorms that developed in Illinois, expanded and got it together in Indiana, and started marching eastward.  Some deperately needed rain was had from the storms, at the expense of copious striaght-line wind damage.


Closer to home, that storm complex gave us a much needed break from the heat, stopping thermometers from climbing out of the lower 90's yesterday, and keeping heat index values in that same range.  Let's take a closer look at see what's on tap:


TEMPERATURES:  A lot of upper 80's or low 90's degree readings expected for the next several days.  While that beats the triple digit air and heat index values, it's still plenty warm.  Temperatures stay right around the 90 mark right through the 4th of July and the end of the following week.  Here's a look at the current conditions across the nation:

US Surface Temperatures

RAIN:  South of us into Indiana, their drought situation has improved somewhat, with rain falling of showers and thunderstorms that have have fired over northern Illinois and tracked southeast ever so slightly, enough to miss us altogether in south central Michigan.  Unfortunately the rain chances don't go up a whole lot for the next few days, putting some fireworks displays in jeopardy of being canceled due to dry conditions.  There will be a small chance of an isolated shower or storm each afternoon for the next two or three, but that's about it.  Here's a look at the  National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

I said in a prior discussion where the NWS was figuring on an inch or so for the five day window that it looked overdone to me, and here we see the modeling has backed off on that scenario.  This forecast map looks more realistic to me, as the upper air setup just doesn't have everything it needs to kick off and sustain strong thunderstorms in an organized fashion.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing in Michigan for the next three days.  All we have here is the "general" risk for thunderstorms according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, any storms that can fire and get a foothold into the moist air here could go severe very quickly, with hail and damaging wind as the primary threats.  If you followed one on radar what you'd see is a lone thunderstorm roaming unchallenged with a thunderstorm warning box on or leading it.  Here's a look at the maps from the SPC:

SPC Day 1 Outlook 

SPC Day 2 Outlook

SPC Day 3 Outlook

Nothing on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD, and here's a look at the visible satellite picture:

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For today, sunny with a few passing clouds and hot, high 93, winds vary from SW to NW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, mainly clear skies with a few passing clouds, lows drop to near 61. winds NE calm to 5  MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, still warm, high near 91, winds SE turning SW 5-10 MPH.


Sunday night, periods of clouds and stars, mild, lows only roll back to 67, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Monday, mainly cloudy skies with maybe a peek or two of sun, hot and humid, a chance of an isolated shower or hit and run thunderstorm, high 92.


Tuesday, cloudy skies, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, humid, high 90.


Independence Day, partly cloudy skies, very warm and continued humid, high 90.


Thursday, partly sunny skies, a few clouds, warm but not quite as humid, high 88.


There's a look at your six day forecast, I hope you have a great Saturday!  Blessings.

Heat Relief!

HEAT ADVISORY CANCELED, WASHTENAW, LENAWEE

Due to clouds associated with a thunderstorm complex working through Indiana into Ohio right now, the National Weather Service Detroit office has canceled the Heat Advisory for Washtenaw and Lenawee counties for today.  High temperatures and heat index values should stay in the lower 90's through the rest of the day. WHOOPEE!!!

A Small (Very Small) Break In The Heating Action!

Good Afternoon!


Nothing fancy here on the blog today, as I am still not 100%, but more importantly I am moving this weekend!  I will attempt to have a forecast of some sort up here, but that depends on how well things go with the move.


Looking at conditions this afternoon we have some severe thunderstorm activity just over the state line into Northern Indiana, as a storm complex has built and is tracking southeast.  Looking at the Northern Indiana NEXRAD, the bottom tier of counties in the blog are seeing at least a hint of some desperately needed rain.


The clouds in the area will keep temperatures down a bit from their forecast levels, which is a good thing, but the humidity will go up a bit as well.


Let's get to the forecast for the weekend:


For this afternoon, more clouds than sunshine with a chance at an isolated shower or roaming thunderstorm, high 92.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, still continued mainly cloudy, still that chance of an isolated shower or storm, lows roll back to 67, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Saturday, mostly sunny and very warm with a perhaps a few passing clouds, highs near 93, heat index values will again be into the upper 90's in most places.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Saturday night, mainly cloudy, a chance at a widely scattered or scattered shower or thunderstorm, low 62, winds W 5-10 MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a bit cooler, high 89, winds NW 5-10 MPH.


Monday, variable cloudiness through the day with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon, muggy, high 89.


Tuesday, partly sunny skies, humid, high 92.


Wednesday, more sun than clouds early, chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon, not quite as warm, high 86.


There's your forecast for the next six, I do hope you have a great Friday.  Wish me luck on the move to a new place.  Blessings!  Have a great weekend!

High And Hot By The Numbers...

Hello Again!

With a chance to look over some data, I thought I'd see if any records came down...one did, one tied.  I have the high temperature from the National Weather Service, and historical data from Weather.com, who also pulls from the NWS, but their format is easier to use.  I have the city, high for today, and record high...

• Jackson - High 98 Record 101 (1971)
• Battle Creek - High 99 Record 101 (1971)
• Lansing - High 98  Record 97 (1934) RECORD BROKEN
• St. John's/Corunna (Owosso) - High 96 Record 99 (1988)
• Ann Arbor - High 100 Record 103 (1934)
• Coldwater - High 100 Record 102 (1988)
• Adrian - High 102 Record 104 (1988) HOT SPOT
• Hillsdale - High 102 Record 104 (1988) HOT SPOT
• Howell - High 99 Record 101 (1988)
• Charlotte - High 98 Record 101 (1953)
• Mason - High 100 Record 100 (unknown) RECORD TIED

Here's the Heat Index highs for today, and the time they were recorded:

• Jackson - 106 at 4:56PM
• Battle Creek - 104 at 3:53PM
• Lansing - 106 at 5:53PM
• St. John's/Corunna - 103 at 5:34PM
• Ann Arbor - 110 at 4:53PM HOT SPOT
• Coldwater - 105 at 3:35PM
• Adrian - 108 at 5:53PM
• Hillsdale - 109 at 4:35PM
• Howell - 103 at 4:15PM
• Charlotte - 106 at 2:55PM
• Mason - 107 at 4:32PM

Looks like my heat index forecast was a bust for not being hot enough...oh my!  We see only a tiny bit of relief tomorrow!  For the record, my daytime forecast high for today would have been 97.

This Heat Is Just Not Funny!!!

Good Evening!

I spent almost 3.5 hours on a post for you all today talking in depth about the heat and chances of showers and storms, as well as giving you a bit of the why behind what I was predicting, then Blogger didn't post it and I could not get a saved copy back.  I was as hot under the collar as it is outside (still am).  At any rate, with plenty of allergy and cold medicine in me and leaving the day job early because I am also under the weather (not kidding), here's a second attempt at a discussion.

TEMPERATURES: The heat we have in place now is simply brutal, some spots are in triple digits for their air temperatures as I start writing this at 5PM, and pretty much everyone is or should be in triple digits for heat index values.  The heat index is the number you want to know right now, as that will tell you what your body is experiencing.  Computer models have the flat ridge and the big-time heat dome under it with us right through Saturday, with temperatures staying at or above 93 right through the weekend, and the associated heat index values near or into triple digits.  As I check them today, I am sure that records will be falling in droves around the area.  We'll see the heat ease off a few degrees for early next week, but then it comes right back.  Here's current surface temperatures around the US...

US Surface Observations 5PM EDT

RAIN: The National Weather Service is thinking that we will see about an inch of rain over the next five days in the area.  We'll take anything we can get, as this heat wave and overall lack of moisture have a lot of unwatered lawns brown and crops stressed due to the lack of rainfall.

Here's that map for you...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

For my money, I just don't think we get that wet over this five day stretch.  It's so hot so high up into the atmosphere, that the convection needed to start thunderstorms has to be higher off the ground than normal, hence the term "elevated" thunderstorms.  More on this in the severe part of the discussion.  I am thinking something more along the lines of three-quarters inch of rain on the high side works for a forecast amount.  The forecast from NWS is showing a more uniform rain coverage, but from the data I have looked at, it really seems a bit overdone, and more spacing between shower and storm elements makes sense to me.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Just garden variety thunderstorms are forecast by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days.  Here's the catch to that.  We have plenty of warm moist air in the area due to the air mass we are currently under.  If air can get floaty and buoyant to rise high enough and get cumuliform clouds set up, then you could see some thunderstorms.  If they can tap into the moisture in the air up there, look out.  They can go strong or severe in a heartbeat.

Storms that want to fire have to break through the "cap", which is a lid of warm air that tends to shut down the rising of air needed to set up thunderstorms.  So we'll have to see if something can give the air a push from underneath to help it get through, or if we get some wimpy storms that have low cloud tops and can't get a solid foothold into some moist, juicy air to work on.  Here's the maps from the Storm Prediction Center, valid at 8AM each day.

SPC Day 1 Forecast

SPC Day 2 Forecast

SPC Day 3 Forecast

Here's the forecast for Jackson County:

For this evening, mainly clear skies with perhaps a passing cloud, still hot until later, then cooling back to 68, winds W 3-8 MPH.

Tomorrow, sunny skies with just a passing cloud or two, very hot again, high temperatures reach 95, heat index values near or into triple digits, winds SW calm to 6 MPH.

Friday night, still mainly starry with perhaps a passing cloud or two, low of 64 winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, mostly sunny with a passing cloud or two, high 89, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sun with a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, high 88.

Monday, continued partly sunny, cooler, high 84.

Tuesday, mainly clear, high 85.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, i do hope you have a great rest of your day!  Keep Cool!  Blessings.

***Blogger Fail!***

I have lost the forecast discussion and post for you for today!  My browser has a 20 minute gap in activity, and during that 20 minutes is when I went to post my discussion and forecast for today!  The saved copies are also not to be found!  I will have to re-create it later today during my lunch!  In the meantime, please look at the Heat Index Forecast post for guidance regarding the heat today, and be safe!

Heat Index Details...

SPECIAL HEAT INDEX FORECAST:  Owing to the heat, I am going to try to give you another piece of information to help you stay safe and informed.  This is a forecast maximum heat index value for the city shown in your temperature readout on the left.  Use this as a guide: remember where you are can have a heat index value a degree or two either side of this temperature.  Let me know if I am right or close, and if this something I should add during more extreme weather situations.  All of these are for today and expire at 9PM EDT.  These were derived using NAM computer model data.

• Adrian - 104
• Ann Arbor - 101
• Battle Creek - 102
• Coldwater - 107
• Charlotte - 102
• Hillsdale - 102
• Howell - 99
• Jackson - 105
• Lansing - 103
• St. John's/Corunna (Owosso) - 102
• Mason - 104

*UPDATED* Heat Advisories For the Area....

Good Morning!


As I prepare to write your forecast package, the National Weather Service has updated some of the advisories, so I will do the same.  Updated information is in BOLD HIGHLIGHTS.


HEAT ADVISORY

• Shiawassee County, from 12 Noon through 12 Midnight
• Livingston County, from 12 Noon through 12 Midnight
• Branch County - from 11AM EDT until 8PM EDT;
• Calhoun County - from 12 Noon through 9PM EDT;
• Hillsdale County - from 11AM EDT until 8PM EDT;
• Jackson County - 12 Noon through 9PM EDT;
• Lenawee County - 12 Noon through  9PM Saturday 6/1;
• Washtenaw County - from 12 Noon today through 9PM Saturday 6/1;

Air temperatures are likely to reach or even exceed 100 degrees, and heat index values can rise as high as 105 degrees in the advisory areas.  Use caution if you must be out anytime other than early morning or late evening!

OZONE ADVISORY

Today is an Ozone Action Day for elevated ozone levels due to the heat in the following counties:

• Clinton
• Eaton
• Hillsdale
• Ingham
• Lenawee
• Livingston
• Shiawassee
• Washtenaw

The full text of all these advisories can be found at www.weather.gov, then clicking on the "Watches/Warnings" tab.

TAKE IT EASY IF YOU MUST BE OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY!

Extreme Heat On The Way! Advisories Posted...

Good Afternoon!!!


In the words of the old Glenn Frey song, The Heat is ON!!!!  We have numerous heat-related advisories for tomorrow issued by the National Weather Service.  For your information, I have them all here...


RED FLAG WARNING: Clinton County, In effect NOW until 10PM EDT 6/28/12.


HEAT ADVISORY

• Branch County - tomorrow, 6/28, from 11AM EDT or 10AM CDT until 8PM EDT or 7PM CDT;
• Calhoun County - tomorrow, 6/28, from 12 Noon through 9PM EDT;
• Hillsdale County - tomorrow, 6/28, from 11AM EDT until 8PM EDT;
• Jackson County - tomorrow, 6/28, from 12 Noon through 9PM EDT;
• Lenawee County - tomorrow, 6/28, from 12 Noon through 9PM EDT;
• Washtenaw County - tomorrow, 6/28, from 12 Noon through 9PM EDT;

Air temperatures are likely to reach or even exceed 100 degrees, and heat index values will rise as high as 105 degrees in the advisory areas.  Use caution if you must be out anytime other than early morning or late evening!

OZONE ADVISORY

Tomorrow, June 28th is an Ozone Action Day for elevated ozone levels due to the heat in the following counties:

• Clinton
• Eaton
• Hillsdale
• Ingham
• Lenawee
• Livingston
• Shiawassee
• Washtenaw

The full text of all these advisories can be found at www.weather.gov, then clicking on the "Watches/Warnings" tab.

TAKE IT EASY TOMORROW IF YOU MUST BE OUT DURING THE DAY!

Here Comes That Heat!!!

Good Morning!


Another start to a bright sunny day in Jackson and around the South Central Michigan Weather Zone today, and it's gonna get HOT!  The scorching heat that has been confined to the Plains and Deep South for the last few days finally starts elbowing it's way in here as the upper air heat dome expands it's reach and flattens out a little bit.  


Out west, the Colorado wildfires are still raging out of control.  250 homes have been destroyed according to the last wire report I looked at, and Colorado Springs is under the gun now, including evacuation of the cadets at the Air Force Academy!  Say a prayer or send a good thought for those folks out there, for some rain, or at least a wind shift to help the firefighters get a handle on it as it's only 5% contained at this point!  Now, let's get closer to home and have a look at a deeper dive to see what's going on...


TEMPERATURES:  We start off seasonably mild today, with temperatures at 10AM in the 70's across the entire blog area.  The hot stuff starts making it's presence known later this afternoon.  High temperatures should settle in the mid to upper 80's today, and the 90+ stuff gets here tomorrow.  A few places around the blog area could post something as hot as 92 today.  I have to pay special attention to Branch and Hillsdale counties in this section of the discussion today, but anyone living in the south zone of the blog would be well advised to be careful because of the following.  The National Weather Service Northern Indiana office has issued a Heat Advisory for tomorrow from 10AM through 8PM EDT for Branch and Hillsdale counties.  Air temperatures and heat index values will be in the triple digits tomorrow, so be careful if you have to be outside during the day.


As the heat works into the area, I would expect temperatures tomorrow by 9AM to be pushing 80 across the board, except maybe Clinton and Shiawassee counties as they are so far north.  We'll see temperatures no lower than the mid 80's for the next week or so as we ramp up to July 4th.  Here's a look at temperatures around the US currently.

US Current  Temperature Observations

Places in Kansas and Colorado are already pushing 100 degrees with time to spare before lunch or even the afternoon when the sun is highest in the sky!


RAIN:  Some desperately needed rain looks to stay south and west of us here in South Central Michigan, according to the National Weather Service.  Their forecast has us picking up no more than a quarter-inch of precipitation the next five days.  Not much help for the crops that are suffering heat and drought stress, and the non-sprinkled lawns will continue their browning trend.  Here's a look at that map for you:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The models are showing a chance of showers or thunderstorms from Friday all the way through Tuesday of next week.  One of those same models (GFS) is also showing we won't break 90 degrees tomorrow either, so that makes his forecast suggestions across the board suspect.  I am still not convinced that we get wet here on Friday, even though the Storm Prediction Center is kicking that notion around as well (more on that below).  So I will hold off a bit longer from adding any rain chances into the mix for Friday, but Sunday looks more solid for rain at this point.  At any rate, based on the five-day map above, if you get something, it will be scattered and shouldn't drop much rain, though we could surely use it!


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center says nothing severe expected here in Michigan for the next three days.  We do see a general risk of garden variety storms tomorrow for almost the entire Lower Peninsula.  Fact is, it will likely be too hot for any heavy-duty convection to occur sufficient to get the big mean storms going.  A 5% risk swath just south of the state line is noted for Friday.  Here's a look at the maps for days two and three, valid at 8AM as always:

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is sound asleep, nothing to see but ground clutter, and the visible satellite image is showing a whole lot of clear sky and that's it...

Visible Satellite Image

76 degrees with clear skies in Jackson, here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Grass Lake and Concord:


For today, sunny skies, becoming hot this afternoon, high temperature 90, winds SW 7-13 MPH.


Tonight, clear and mild, lows around 66, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Thursday, sunny, hot and becoming humid.  High 98, heat index values could reach 105 with dew point temperatures expected to climb into the mid 60's.  Winds SW 8-14 MPH.


Thursday night, mainly clear skies with some passing clouds, warm, lows only roll back to 68, winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, still hot, high 90.


Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy with a couple of peeks at sunshine, high 89.


Sunday, still cloudy, a few breaks for sunshine are expected, an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out.  High 87.


Monday, more sun than clouds, still warm, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, high 85.


There's a look at a very hot forecast for the next six days, I hope your hump day Wednesday is fantastic!  If you have to be out during the day tomorrow, please watch yourself!  Blessings.

WEATHER ALERTS ISSUED...

The following weather alerts are or will be active in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone:

HEAT ADVISORY:   Branch and Hillsdale Counties, for tomorrow, Thursday 6/28/12, 10AM - 8PM EDT (9AM - 7PM CDT)

RED FLAG WARNING: Clinton County, 1PM - 10PM EDT Today, Wednesday 6/27/12.

One More Nice Day...Then The Heat Returns!

Good Morning!

Another winner of a day is on tap for the South Central Michigan Weather Zone.  We are coming off of the coolest night in quite sometime, with temperatures falling all the back into the 40's for nighttime lows.  We'll enjoy another day of comfy temperatures both day and night, even if a couple of degrees warmer on both sides of the clock, then the heat that has baked the Plains pays us a visit here...One deeper dive coming up!

TEMPERATURES: We stay seasonably mild today, temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70's to around 81, depending on if you're in the north or south zone of the blog.  We'll see light northwest winds, and a night with temperatures in the lower 50's across the board, then the mercury starts climbing in time for the latter half of the work week, with temperatures making a hard run at 100 in time for the weekend. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the bunch.  Some spots in the south zone of the blog may actually post 100 before it's all done, as the blistering heat from the Plains makes it way in.  The ridge containing the heat dome expands it's reach in the coming days!  Here's a look at a map showing that ridge and the heat dome under it.

NAM Model Forecast valid 8AM EDT 6/28/12

The slight arch though the middle of the US is your ridge.  It's actually showing flatter here than it is now and will be through tomorrow.  Under that is your heat.  The 588 line is generally good for surface temperatures that are 70's or better that early, warming well into the 80's, and the 594 line will generally give you readings at or above 80, warming well into the 90's as the day progresses.  These are rules of thumb and not a guarantee that you'll see it that warm that early!

Here's another map showing current temperature readings around the US.  You can see some areas are already near or at 80 degrees in the Plains, and most people haven't even made it to work yet!!!

US Surface Temperatures as of 9:00 AM EDT

RAIN:  Yeah, right.  Not unless it's coming out of a sprinkler or garden hose.  Nothing on tap for the next several days, computer modeling is suggesting a chance of some rain on Friday and just a hint of a chance of rain on Sunday, as a teeny-tiny shortwave trough moves through, bringing a slight chance at some isolated or widely scattered shower activity of the quick wetdown variety.  For my money, from the data available so far today, I am not buying the whole Friday rain deal, so I will bypass the Friday mention of rain that the GFS computer model is asking for, and hang my hat on a Sunday chance of rain.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks for the next five days as far as precipitation...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

According to the NWS, we pick up about a quarter inch of rain the next five days.  We can use it, as we are over an inch below normal for the month of June, and factoring in being behind in May, the drought is getting worse, not better.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Severe heat, if there is such a thing as that in the severe weather category.  As far as storms go, nothing really in this neck of the woods.  We see a low 5% chance of severe weather on day three of the forecast from the Storm Prediction Center, here's that map for you...

More than a few of the ingredients for severe weather will be around here and at least somewhat lined up later this week, but it's going to be so darned warm, that a nice tight lid will stay on the atmosphere.  You have to have warm, unstable rising air as a main ingredient to kick off strong or severe thunderstorms, and that lid or "cap" of warm air will act as a ceiling, preventing air from rising high enough to create storms.  Here's a look at the Day Three map from the SPC, valid at 8AM Thursday morning:

Day 3 Severe Outlook Map

Winds calm and 59 degrees in Jackson under sunny skies, nothing on Grand Rapids NEXRAD to speak of, and the satellite is clear as well.  

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Michigan Center:

Today, sunny skies, a few passing clouds during the day, warmer, with a high of 79, northwest winds calm to 6 MPH.


Tonight, another good night for stargazing or relaxing under the stars, a bit warmer than last night, low near 53, winds becoming SW 6-12 MPH.


Wednesday, clear skies, warmer and seasonable as the hot air in the Plains starts filtering in, high 85.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday night, mainly starry skies, a some clouds move through during the night, warmer with a low only down to 65, winds SW 6-12 MPH.


Thursday, increasing clouds during the day, we still see some sun, very warm, high of 89.


Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, high 88.


Saturday, partly sunny, warm, high 85.


Sunday, a mixed bag of clouds and sunshine, high 85.


There's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings.

Cool It Off, Then Re-Heat It...

Good Morning!


With the passage of a cold front, winds have shifted around to the north, cool dry Canadian air is in place, and we will see temperatures remain in the 70's for today and tomorrow, before warming back up into more seasonable conditions for the rest of the week and heading into the 4th of July holiday.  Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Debby is wreaking havoc in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing flooding rains to parts of the Gulf Coast, and spawning numerous tornadoes in Florida that have claimed at least one life.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have in store...


TEMPERATURES: The cold front has moved through, northeasterly winds are in place, and drier air has worked it's way into the area - dewpoint temperatures are in the lower 50's now, as opposed to the 50-60 degree readings we have seen over the last few days.  Fair skies and dry conditions are sum result of it all.  We stay below 80 until Thursday, when the heat that has been baking the Plains filters in here, fortunately, not with the gusto that brought record heat yesterday to places such as Tuscaloosa, AL with a high of 101, and Dodge City, KS, with a high of 107.  We'll push back into the upper 80's with a 90 or two thrown into the mix for the weekend.


RAIN:  We're in short supply, and we need it.  Lawns are browning over and crops are feeling the lack of moisture as the days pass.  According to the National Weather Service, Jackson is only about a half-inch below normal for the month, but it's more year to date.  And of course, the NWS 5 day precipitation forecast is no help either.  Look at this map....

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

That's right - BONE DRY for the next five days if this is correct, and multiple computer models in agreement indicates that this pattern looks to be a valid one with a good chance to verify over the course of the work week.  We'd like a little bit of rain between now and the 4th of July, to help crops and yards, and to minimize the risk of fireworks cancellation because it's too dry.  The good news is that this map is only good until 8AM EDT on Friday.  Computers are discussing enhanced chances of rain for the weekend, of the scattered shower or storm variety.  That'll sure help!


SEVERE WEATHER:  In a word...NOPE.  Nothing even close to the Great Lakes or even the Midwest for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  All the rough stuff is out on the Eastern Seaboard, with a "slight" risk from North Carolina up through Massachusetts, and of course, Florida and south Georgia courtesy of Tropical Storm Debby.  Here's a look at the Day One map only, valid at 8AM.

SPC Day 1 Severe Storm Forecast Map (Valid 8AM EDT)

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is sound asleep with just the usual ground clutter circle on it, and the visible satellite shows just the hint of some small puffy cumulus.

Visible Satellite Picture

Seasonably cool and comfy right now, 66 at the airport with winds north at 12 MPH.  Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Hanover-Horton and Grass Lake:


Today, mostly sunny skies with a few puffy passing clouds and a high temperature of 73, winds N 7-14 MPH.


Tonight, mostly starry skies, unseasonably cool, a bit chilly in fact with lows dropping all the way to 47.  Winds NW 3-9 MPH.


Tuesday, mainly clear, a few clouds pass during the day, warmer with a high of 76, north winds calm to 6 MPH.


Tuesday night, clear skies good for stargazing continue, not as cool, lows roll back to 51, winds becoming SW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, another winner, mostly sunny, warmer and seasonable as the heat dome in the Plains starts creeping toward us, high 83.


Thursday, clouds increase and make it partly to mostly cloudy, a peek or two of sun is still expected, warmer still, high of 86.


Friday, a mix of clouds and sun, chance of a late afternoon shower or storm, still warm with a high of 86.


Saturday, partly sunny, warm, high 85.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a good Monday!  Blessings.

Cool Snap For Tomorrow, Back to Summer By Midweek

Good Morning!


We have another nice day, at least in part, on tap for today.  As we make it into the afternoon hours, some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, bringing much needed rain to a few areas.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have going on...


TEMPERATURES:  We see temperatures at or near 90 today in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone.  As the afternoon wears on, rain starts to form and cool things off, at least in a few parts of the area.  After winds shift to the northeast later, we see the lower 70's readings gain a foothold.  We'll spend the start of the new work week in the lower 70's then temperatures start to warm back to more seasonable levels through Tuesday and Wednesday.  Summer-like warmth should be back in place to start the weekend and the run-up to the 4th of July holiday.


RAIN: An upper wave moves through the area this afternoon and sets up the chance of some showers and thunderstorms in the far southeastern part of the blog area.  The National Weather Service is showing us a pretty dry look for the next five days, with rain totals of less than a quarter inch forecast.  Here's a look at that five day map for you.

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center has a "slight" risk area for severe thunderstorms for far southeastern Michigan.  After that it's clear sailing for the next couple of days.  In fact, today is the only day of the next three where a "slight" risk exists anywhere in the US.  Here's a look at today's map only for you, valid at 8AM.

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Sunny skies with clouds in the area right now, and the Grand Rapids NEXRAD shows just a few showers northwest of us. 

Visible Satellite

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

For today, partly sunny skies, a chance of an isolated or widely scattered afternoon shower or pop-up thunderstorm, high 88.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, cool, low 53, winds NW 6-12 MPH.


Tomorrow, sunny, much cooler, pleasant, high 74, winds NNW calm to 5 MPH.


Tomorrow night, clear and unseasonably cool, nighttime lows all the the way back to 49, winds NNW calm to 5 MPH.


Tuesday, clear skies, seasonable and nice, perhaps a few passing clouds, high 77.


Wednesday, more sunny skies and pleasant with a high of 78.


Thursday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 87.


Friday, partly cloudy skies, perhaps a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower.  High 89.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great day.  Blessings.