A Wet First Half Of The Week...

Good Morning!

The warmest weather thus far of 2013 will enter the area today...along with it, some scattered showers and thunder, these could get severe later this afternoon and into tonight.  Quite a bit to talk about, so let's get it started!

TEMPERATURES:  Warm, moist, Gulf air is riding in on southerly flow, and we'll only see the mercury climb today, with temperatures right around 90.  Humidity will also be a factor, as we'll see dew points rising into the lower 60's, making for a sticky, muggy afternoon.  We'll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in this airmass, thanks to a shortwave upper disturbance working through the larger system.  Places that are able to score some rain today should see just a touch of relief. Have a look at the current temperatures around the nation:

Take a look at the 70's already nosing in here, Jackson was unofficially at 72 shortly after 9 AM!

We don't really start to bring the humidity and dew point values back down until Wednesday, as the surface low and it's associated slow moving cold front finally work their way into and through the area.  On the backside of it all, we transition into a more early to mid-spring weather motif, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's, climbing back into the 70's in time for the weekend.

SEVERE WEATHER:  You'll notice that the severe weather section is second today instead of rain in the discussion. That's because Michigan is in the mix for possibly severe weather today and tomorrow.  For today, we'll see some strong storms and such during the afternoon hours, and forecast data indicates that there will be a quality environment for them to work in, so I would not be surprised to see them go severe.  Have a look at the risk maps from the Storm Prediction Center:

SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Risk

SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Risk - I would not be surprised to see at least part of Michigan, if not all, get pulled out the "slight" category between now and tomorrow - see why below.

Primary risk according to the Storm Prediction Center will be for hail and damaging wind, but, all modes of severe weather are on the table for this afternoon and tonight.  There isn't much of a cap to hold off storm development, and we expect sufficient sunshine to fire off some storms.  The question is will they remain scattered and cellular in nature, or will they develop and congeal into an unruly mob of storms.  If they stay cellular, hail and perhaps a tornado. If they muster and become a linear system, expect wind damage with  possibly a small, buried tornado in the line.  The threat appears to be more limited for tomorrow, as other factors, including some cloud cover, that means less daytime heating, as well as ongoing convection elsewhere nearby may steal some energy from the system and temper the risk somewhat.  We'll keep an eye on it and update as necessary.  Just as a heads up, I will be working my day job today, so if we get into a severe situation, updates may not be as timely or frequent as I would like.  Have a good source of official watch/warning information at hand, and as always, outdoor sirens DO NOT COUNT.

RAIN:  I fully expect showers and storms in the area by dark tonight.  Depending on which model you're asking, forecast data is suggesting showers and storms developing as early as 3 PM in the north zone, with it filling in as afternoon turns into evening.  Others have it more hit or miss.  I'm predicting scattered afternoon showers and storms, some could be severe, and due to the spread in forecast data, anytime after 3:30 it will be game on.  In the 12 years I have lived in Michigan, our storms in this part of the world seem to kickoff between 3 and 7 PM, so that's my arrival window.  Of course, your mileage will vary due to cloud cover, wind and such.  Let's look at the Weather Prediction Center forecast map:

5 Day Rainfall forecast, valid thru 8 AM Saturday.  The lowest amounts are still right around an inch and a half for the next five days in the blog area!

Plenty of rainfall expected between now and the end of the work week.  Look at that 2.8" bullseye just west of Lansing!  Keep an umbrella handy, and don't be surprised to see a touch of flash flooding.  After that, break out the bug repellent.  The rain really doesn't get out of here until Thursday, when we clear off and set up for a refreshing weekend.

Here's a look at the visible satellite image:

A bit of haze as well as some clouds evident in this shot.

And here's the forecast:

For today, hazy sunshine gives way to increasing afternoon clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing by dark, some could be severe.  Very warm, high 88.  Wind S 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, continuing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, again, some could be severe, lows only drop to near 65, wind SSW 5-15 MPH, stronger in/near storms.

Tuesday, mainly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms, high 82.  Wind SSW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday night, cloudy, still some showers and thunderstorms about, lows near 61, wind SW 5-15 MPH.

Wednesday, mainly cloudy, perhaps a peek or two of sun, more showers and thunderstorms as the surface low and cold front finally make their move through the area cooler, high 80.

Thursday, slowly clearing skies and much cooler, refreshing.  Some spots may still pick up a stray shower. High 68.

Friday, sunny and pleasantly cool, high 70.

Saturday, sunny and splendid, high 73.

Sunday, mixed sunshine, continued cool. high 68.

There's a look at your forecast for the next 7 days, i do hope that you have a great start to your week!  Blessings.