Sun Is Coming, Hang In There!!!

Good Afternoon!

Man, I am going to have to figure out a different Sunday routine - getting the 8 year-old around for church and getting a forecast out don't jibe very well together!  This is a history-making forecast for me, it's the first one going on the blog.  Maybe that's why I'm a little nervous at the keyboard.  Here we go.

Even with the cloudy skies right now, our temperatures are running a couple of degrees above average which is around 47 degrees.  A trough is to the west of us, around MN, basically riding the US/Canada border, it looks to stay that course and give us a chance at rain or storms starting Monday and continuing through late Tuesday.  Currently in Jackson it's 53 at the airport with NNW winds at 5 MPH, humidity is 71%, dew point of 44 degrees.  A deeper dive:

TEMPERATURES:  Some computer modeling wanted to have 60's in here today, but with the clouds, I think that's a bit ambitious.  My take is we'll climb comfortably into the 50's for daytime highs today and the next couple of days, with the nighttime lows getting down into the mid or even low 30's.  We'll be able to make a run at 60, but not until after this next weather maker moves through on Tuesday.  It looks dry and sunny behind that system right now. 

RAIN:  None of any significance for the next day or so.  If we get anything today, it should be widely scattered.  Monday, the same, but the chances of rain and the coverage of it go up as we get to Monday evening.   All the models generally agree that we'll get wet on Tuesday, but as to the timing and amount, that's still under debate.  We'll have an answer to that question later this evening or tomorrow for sure.  Right now, just a couple of passing showers out over Lake Michigan, well to the northwest of Jackson County.

SEVERE WEATHER:  In a word, nope.  The Storm Prediction Center does have the lower two rows of counties in Michigan under a "general" risk for garden-variety thunderstorms, with the slight risk in southern Indiana and Ohio, extending down from there through KY, WV and into TN.  Here's a look:

The SPC Day 2 forecast, effective at 8 AM EDT on the 2nd, adds a lot more "general" risk category to the mix, with the "slight" risk down at the south end of Tornado Alley.  We'll have to see what tonight and tomorrow bring regarding forecast changes. Here's that map:

Closer to home, here's a look at your local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Grass Lake and Parma.

For the rest of Palm Sunday, cloudy skies, seasonable, high temperatures should top out around 53 with SW winds 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies start to clear some late, the chance of a passing shower early, nighttime lows near 35 easterly winds 7-15 MPH.

 

Back to work on Monday with periods of clouds and sunshine, a chance of showers or a roaming thunderstorm in the afternoon, high temperature of 55 with SE winds 7-15 MPH.

 

Monday night, clouds on the increase again as the next weather maker heads this way, chance of showers or scattered thunderstorms, lows near 43, winds SE 7-15 MPH.

 

Tuesday, cloudy skies with a 50/50 chance of showers and thunderstorms until mid-afternoon, then tapering off toward the evening commute.  Highs around 58, southeast winds swing and become northerly 10-20 MPH as the afternoon progresses and the rain moves through.

 

Tuesday night the rain should be gone by dinnertime, any dying showers will be widely scattered at best.  A mix of stars and clouds early, then mainly clear late, nighttime lows down to 37, north winds 5-10 MPH.

 

Wednesday, mostly sunny skies with a passing cloud or two, high temperatures near 55, northerly winds 7-14 MPH.

Thursday, plenty of sunshine with highs again around 55.

Friday, sunny, pleasant, high near 57.

Saturday, sunny skies, high near 60.

There it is...my first forecast.  I expect to update it before bedtime, so stay tuned for another post later.  Don't forget to follow me on Twitter: @wxrefMikeD

If you take the time to read this, first of all thanks, I hope it helps or is at least interesting.  Second, if you have any feedback, good, bad or ugly, please - respond.  I'm new at this so I will be playing and tweaking as I go.  The 1st Amendment is a beautiful thing!  I do reserve the right to deep-six inappropriate comments.  Bottom line, if you wouldn't say it to someone face-to-face, you may not want to print it on the Internet.  Thanks!

Have a great rest of your Palm Sunday!  Blessings.