They Call It Snowy Monday...

Good Morning!

Clouds have worked into the area, ahead of some significant winter weather, a system that will drop as much as six inches of snow (with locally heavier amounts possible), over the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that, we get into some milder weather and start thawing some of this out, at least for a little while.  Let’s take a deeper dive and see what’s going on…

SNOW ON THE WAY:  The entire state of Michigan, as well as a good portion of the Midwest is under either a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning from the National Weather Service today.  Have a look at the watch/warning map from the National Weather Service:

That makes it pretty much cut and dried as to what will happen.  Regarding snow, my amounts from last night are out the window with the addition of the entire state to the winter weather alerts.  Let’s take a peek at my updated forecast maps:

That’s my predicted snowfall map.  I will say right out of the gate that this is the best estimate based on the available data as I write at 10 AM today.  (Disclaimer: I HAVE NOT consumed any broadcast media National Weather Service data, except for the products from the Storm Prediction Center and the advisories from the NWS field offices in Grand Rapids, Northern Indiana, and Detroit.  This excludes the forecast models of course; they’re run by the NWS and NOAA.)

The advisories officially kick off at noon.  You can add about an inch, maybe two as you move west toward the lake, and some spots will see up to an inch more locally than what the band you’re in here says.  The most intense snow should occur between about 4 PM and 10PM tonight where you could see snowfall totals as up to an inch per hour for a couple of hours in that window.  Thankfully, all of this should be pretty well out of here by 10 AM tomorrow, and then we can get to work on thawing it.

YOU SAID WARMING MIKE, WHAT’S UP WITH THAT?:  OK, here’s what I see.  After this storm works through the area during the next day and a half, high pressure and a bit of a ridge manage to fight their way in from the south and get at least a toe in the door.  That’ll be enough to get us above the freezing mark and back to seasonable readings, which typically hover right around 35.  We’ll even exceed average for a bit, with readings Thursday up into the low and in some spots mid 40’s!  The concern with that is a rapid melt with all of the snowpack, plus the fact that those temperatures will be accompanied by some showers, means that flooding becomes a real concern.

SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD THE WEEKEND?:  Well, perhaps.  The Storm Prediction Center is identifying a risk for severe weather for Thursday and Friday of this week.  The Thursday bulls eye, as it’s drawn now, just clips a sliver of far southern Michigan, so basically the state line counties from say US-12 south are in play…for now.

The area outlined in red here is the one I'll be eyeballing over the next couple of days.

I fully expect that to get pulled south and out of Michigan as SPC analyzes fresh data.  The forecast computers are mentioning about a 3 in 10 shot at thunderstorms, but frankly, I don’t put much stock into it at the moment.  The key will be to see what that southerly air looks like as we get closer to that point.

Here’s a look at a GFS model forecast map.  (Please excuse the crude drawing and the source – when my bankcard got hacked and my money stolen, I wasn’t able to re-up my data provider subscription.  That’ll be after I get the $ back.)

You can see the sharp wind and temperature change for Thursday evening as the front heads in from the west.  Around that time will be the best chance for any storms.

Here’s the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leoni Township:

And here's a look at the extended forecast taking you through the weekend...

That's it for now.  Let's sit back and gather ourselves to get behind the shovels and snow throwers once again after this storm comes through.  Warmer weather is coming, I promise!  Have a great day! Blessings.