A Bit More Snow, Then Changing...

Good Evening!

Forecaster Mike here, still getting back into the swing of things with the blog.  The two job bit is pretty much a done deal, so we'll be getting back to some semblance of a normal daily schedule soon.  A lot to talk about so let's take a dive into it...

THE CHILLY AIR STAYS AROUND (FOR AWHILE LONGER):  Have a look at temperatures in the country.

 
That cold trough and the Arctic air from Canada is still hanging tough.  I love my Canadian neighbors, but that mess, they can take and keep north of the border!  You can see milder air has split the big trough into two pieces, with a pocket of cold air over the Rockies, and the rest of the trough to the east of that.  There is some change down the line a bit though, keep reading.  Now let's talk about....

OUR FIRST WINTER STORM HAS COME AND (PRETTY MUCH) GONE:  Even though it's gone, there's still plenty of lake effect snow to be had in this part of the world.  A Winter Weather Advisory will be on the board for Calhoun County and points west until 7 PM for lake effect snow that could tack as much as an additional four inches onto the snowfall totals in t-hat part of the world.  It is snowing still here in Jackson County, but our accumulations will only be about an additional inch.  Let's have a look at the snow totals:

As I said, plenty of snow to go around.  That will continue into the week, as taking a look at model data, I'm seeing...

A BIT MORE SNOW, CLIPPER-STYLE:  Forecast models are showing a couple of upper disturbances that will come through and give us more snow.  These things are fast-moving, hit and run type deals, you may hear a meteorologist on TV or radio use the phrase "Alberta Clipper".  That's because these are buried in the larger upper level flow, they ride into the area, create a bit of snow, then keep on cruising.  Timing is fairly consistent from model to model, in that fairly late Monday afternoon, into the evening, a shot of snow works into the area, exiting by daybreak Tuesday.  Have a look at this graphic:

I'm fairly confident we see snow both Monday and Tuesday.  From this look, for my money, Monday will be the bigger hassle as far as travel.  Heavier snowfall along and south of I-94 for the drive home.

Another upper disturbance looks to drop in here right on the heels of that one, it could give us some snow as well.  I have seen model spread on the Tuesday affair concerning arrival time as soon as just after morning drive, to as late as second shift drive (3 PM).  I'm going to split the difference, and go with an hour or two either side of lunchtime as when you should expect a bit of snow.  I don't expect Tuesday's ride home to have much in the way of weather difficulty in it.  I'm thinking another two inches of new snow between the two events, maybe a touch more, let's see what the Weather Prediction Center thinks about the next five days regarding precipitation:

WPC likes between a quarter to a half-inch of liquid precipitation through 7 PM Saturday night.  Using the rule of thumb that an inch of liquid gets you about a foot of snow, this looks OK to me.  I think we pick up maybe two inches of snow early in the week, so that means a bit less than .25 inch of liquid, then don't be shocked to see some rain on Thursday to bring us up to these suggested totals.

Once we get through midweek, a pattern shift and warming trend start to take shape.  This pattern change means...

THE COLD STUFF GETS SHOVED BACK NORTH:  We'll see the icy Arctic air get shoved back north of the border, temperatures here climb above freezing and beyond, and the precipitation that falls from above would be RAIN, not snow.  Current model solutions are suggesting a high of 40 in Jackson on Thursday.  I personally think that's a bit ambitious, but 35-38 certainly isn't out of the picture.  I'll hold any further judgment until the models crunch new data a few times and see what number they suggest on the guidance printout.

We come back down to just under the average high of 33 in time for the weekend, and leave in a chance of some flurries or light snow right through the forecast window.

LOOKING AHEAD:   All of you white Christmas aficionados should have little or nothing to worry about.  We don't stay warm long enough to melt the snow that we got Saturday, plus we have additional snowfall that accumulates through the week before the warm up gets here.  In fact, the GFS forecast model suggests that Santa will have a storm center over northern lower Michigan to contend with on Christmas Eve, with temperatures supporting snow in the area.  We'll evaluate that as we get closer to Christmas.  Still many days before we get there, but from the perch now, more than enough white stuff for you.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Brooklyn:

There's a look at your forecast for the next week.  Have a great evening!  Blessings.