Spring Finally Sprung From Hiding!

Good Afternoon!

This is more like it!  Milder days and cool or even chilly nights.  That's what Spring in Michigan is all about.  We'll see buds on the trees and flowers soon if they haven't already started waking up.  There's only one component missing right now - rain.  We'll have that soon enough.  Let's take a look and see what's running under the hood!

FINALLY SOME MILD WEATHER:  Yes indeed, and it gets better - after a brief backslide today into the mid or upper 40's from near 60 degree readings around the area on Thursday.  The GFS forecast model is suggesting we see a 70 or two in the area next Tuesday!  I am still skeptical of that at this point, but anything in the 50's or better...we'll take that.  My money says mid 60's for Tuesday.  After that, we drop back into more seasonable conditions, with temperatures making it comfortably into the 50's through the tail end of next week.  Average high temperature in Jackson this time of year is about 55 degrees, we shouldn't fall below that, in fact I think we stay above it until Wednesday, then we stick pretty close to that mark.

APRIL SHOWERS YET?:  You bet.  The next few days will have some shots of rain, and perhaps the first rumbles of thunder this season may be heard this weekend as well.  Warmer air with some moisture migrates in for the day tomorrow, sending high temperatures close to the 60 degree mark.  My take: we stay dry for much of the day Saturday, working some post-lunch clouds in, then add some scattered evening showers, and perhaps a lone thunderstorm.  We'll dry out around lunchtime on Sunday if not sooner, and stay that way until Monday evening, when our next chance of showers and perhaps some thunder presents itself.  Let's look at the WPC 7 Day Precipitation Forecast:

Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Total Precipitation Thru 8 AM Friday 4/12/13

There's some of those April showers you need to get the crops and flowers off to a good start.  A pretty damp look for South Central Michigan, with an inch and a half or better of rain expected statewide.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Now that the upper-air flow has reset into a more seasonable pattern, moist, tasty Gulf air for storms to chow on can filter well inland, interacting with cooler air and smaller waves and disturbances, kicking off showers and thunderstorms.  Nothing severe in this part of the world to worry with for the next week, but the Storm Prediction Center is eyeing a potentially significant severe weather event for Kansas, the central and southern Plains, and the lower Mississippi valley into Dixie Alley.  Have a look at the SPC forecast map:

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook Days 4-8

I show you this in case you're headed that way next week.  There's not a chance of nailing down timing, severity, or location this early in the game, just file it away as a "re-check in a day or so" item.  We will know a lot more at that point in time.

CLOSER TO HOME:  The visible satellite showing plenty of SUNSHINE!  Readings holding in the mid to upper 40's at the reporting stations...

Visible Satellite Image with station observation plots overlaid - the stick with lines (a wind barb) shows wind speed in knots, and it points in the direction wind is blowing FROM.  Red numbers are surface temperature, green numbers are dew point values.  Letters are the station identifier: JXN - Jackson, LAN - Lansing, BTL - Battle Creek, ARB - Ann Arbor.

And with that bright blue sky, no point showing you the Grand Rapids NEXRAD - unless you like looking at ground clutter around the radar.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Grass Lake:

This afternoon, sunny, breezy, seasonably cool, high 50, wind NNW 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, clear skies, cold, lows near 25, wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow, clear early morning skies become mostly cloudy by afternoon.  Stray afternoon showers become more numerous later, high 56.  Winds turn SW increasing to 8-16 MPH.

Tomorrow night, cloudy, a 50/50 chance of scattered showers, a lonely thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, milder, lows only roll back to 42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

Sunday, any lingering showers should be gone by lunchtime, leaving fair skies, mixed sunshine, seasonably warm, high 56, wind becoming ESE 5-10 MPH.

Monday, partly sunny skies, a pop-up rain shower is possible, high 60.

Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms likely, unseasonably mild, high 67.

Wednesday, continued mainly cloudy, some lingering showers are possible, not as warm, high 60.

Thursday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, still the chance of some scattered showers, cooler, high 54.

Friday, mainly cloudy, a few peeks of sunshine, some hit or miss showers are possible, high 56.

There's your forecast for the next seven days, I do hope that you have a wonderful Friday - and a great weekend.  Blessings.  Wish me luck as I get settled into the new place!