Hang In There - The Good Stuff Is Coming...

Good Morning!

A peek at some sunshine greeted us on this Thursday, then more of that depressing rain/snow mix for part of the day.  Some changes for the better are enroute.  Let's have a look and see what's going on...

PRECIPITATION:  Old Man Winter just doesn't know when to say when!  Enough already!  An upper disturbance is working through Michigan right now, and a as a result, with the temperatures in the 30's and 40's, expect some rain and snow mixed in periods throughout the day.  The good news is that it shouldn't last  all day like it did yesterday.  We should see some clearing and peeks of sunshine by around 3 PM in Jackson and vicinity.  Also like yesterday, the snow will stick on lawns, patios, and cars, but not much else.  Here's a look at Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar showing the line of rain/snow...

And while we are on the subject of precipitation, let's take a look at the latest seven day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

7 Day Precipitation Forecast Map - Valid through 8 AM Thursday May 2nd.  Most of Michigan can expect about a half-inch of liquid the next seven days.  Hopefully that's all we get, much more will re-aggravate the flooding issues present in some counties of the blog today.

More damp conditions on tap for the upper Midwest.  Not really a good thing with numerous flood-related watches, advisories, and warnings up already.  From the perch here, I can see us picking up some shower activity Sunday, Monday night, then again Wednesday night into Thursday.  So far, none of these days appear to be total washouts, just scattered shower affairs.  That being said, I can't yet narrow things to a 3-6  hour window as I try to for you.  Just keep the umbrella close at hand and you'll be fine.

TEMPERATURES:  Bear with it and let's get through the end of the week.  Your patience will be rewarded with some seasonably nice weather late in the weekend.  Before I tell you what's in store, let's see what the surface temperature plot looks like right now:

Surface contour map of US temperatures.  There just isn't a lot of warm spring air to be had, that Polar air mass from Canada shows himself here north of the 40 degree line.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 50's and into the 60's are waiting out west.  We have to let this latest trough run through and out of here.  Under the trough, cold air from Canada and temperatures that support snow as well as rain.  Thankfully the surface is sufficiently warm that the rain and such freezing over is not much of a concern.  The trough starts to lift out of here pre-dawn Saturday, and we see some 50's and 60's.  By the time we get into the middle of next week, finally some spring-like weather in place with readings into the lower 70's, and a chance of scattered showers each day.  Forecast model computers like 75 for a high Tuesday.  I am a bit pessimistic on things getting that warm.  My personal thinking says something like 71-72, but I can be persuaded to buy in if the models continue to insist on that number into the weekend. We'll see.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much here to speak of.  Just the risk of some plain vanilla thunderstorms over across roughly the bottom half of Wisconsin.  Nothing affecting Michigan in the three day window.  We see the ArkLaTex and extreme southern Oklahoma in a slight risk area for tomorrow, to round out the work week, and then a couple of "See Text" areas that the Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye on for Saturday.

Here's a look at the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite, showing the upper disturbance working through the area and creating our rain/snowshowers this morning.  If you notice, clearing skies just moving on-shore in West Michigan, and some moderation in temperatures as well.

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Brooklyn and Concord:

Today:  Periods of rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in, then some clearing, chilly, high 49.  Wind becoming W 7-14 MPH.

Tonight:  Mainly moonlit skies, a few passing clouds, cold.  Lows dip to 30, wind NW calm to 5 MPH.

Friday:  Mainly sunny, expect some passing clouds, much milder, high 61.  Wind SW 6-12 MPH.

Friday night:  Clear skies, not as cold, lows roll back to 40, wind SW 4-8 MPH.

Saturday:  A mix of clouds and sun, mild and seasonable, high 67.

Sunday:  Cloudy, a peek or two of midday sun is possible, as is a shower or two.  High 68.

Monday:  Mainly cloudy skies, again, a few breaks to let in some sun, or a couple of stray showers are possible.  A touch warmer, high 71.

Tuesday:  The pattern continues.  Overcast skies, a chance of a few scattered showers, mild, high 73.

Wednesday:  Clouds persist, periods of scattered showers or an afternoon thunderstorm are likely, high 74.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful Thursday!  Blessings.