Rainy, Then Some Of This And That...

Good Afternoon!

We are seeing temperatures slowly climb as the day progresses, we're also seeing rain showers develop to the west of us, they are just now filtering onshore into Michigan.  Have a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar and you'll see them:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

If we take a look at the Midwest NEXRAD composite image, you'll see a lot of precipitation headed this way, with just a hint of some freezing rain, shown in pink across the area.  Off to the northwest, across Minnesota and Wisconsin, plenty of snow as a surface low drags a storm system into that part of the world...

Midwest NEXRAD Composite Image

SUMMARY:  Taking a look at surface temperatures across the nation, you see where warm southerly flow is pushing toward us...

We're already in the lower 30's in most spots throughout the area, I think we add a few more degrees to that until the rain and such gets here later this evening.  Readings are already in the mid to upper 30's just over the border in Indiana, and that air is elbowing it's way north.  Temperatures only dip slightly this evening, before we get right back into upper 30's/low 40's readings for tomorrow, and along with that, precipitation.

Average temperature is right around freezing this time of the year in the area, so we do run above that for a couple of days, and then a cold front treks back in here in time for the weekend, dropping temperatures 10 to 15 degrees, and bringing us a shot at some fresh snow.

PRECIPITATION:  As a surface low tracks through Minnesota and Wisconsin, eventually affecting the Upper Peninsula, we stay on the warm side of the system with southerly flow,  so we get rain.  Let's take a look at the next 5 days of precipitation according to the National Weather Service:

National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation Forecast, valid thru 7 AM EST Friday

That half to three-quarters of an inch of water will be mostly that, and not snow thankfully this go-round.  This map is showing, and I concur, higher amounts of precipitation are expected to be north of I-96.  Two systems get us this week.  One today and into tomorrow, bringing the previously mentioned rain.  The lion's share of our 5 day precipitation comes from this system.  Another one moves through later this week, and brings us more liquid falling from the sky, this time in frozen form, so we get snow.  Looking at it this early, I do not expect any heavy-duty accumulations, perhaps a couple of inches of new snow on the high side, more as you get closer to Lake Michigan.  We'll see if my read is accurate and holds, as we get closer to the latter part of the week.

After we get the second system through here, back to more typical winter weather.  The freezer door stands wide open, and cold polar air drops into the region from Canada.  We then get some upper disturbances (Alberta Clippers) moving through the larger flow, kicking off some lake-effect snows.  GFS forecast modeling is persistent with a chance of lake effect snow every day from say, Wednesday on, and I can buy that at least until Friday.

Now then, a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas:

This afternoon, cloudy, a bit of freezing rain changes over, becoming scattered to numerous showers later, high 40.  Wind SSE 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers persist, perhaps some freezing rain in the mix and slick spots in any case due to iced over roads, low's roll back to 33 with wind becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

Monday, overcast skies, more scattered shower activity, this should diminish after lunch, high 40, wind WSW 8-16 MPH.

Monday night, continued cloudy, colder, nighttime lows roll back to 22, winds W 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, mainly cloudy but some clearing as the day progresses, high more seasonable, around 34.  Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, partly to mainly sunny and milder, high 40.

Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun, perhaps a chance of some scattered afternoon showers, continued seasonably mild, high 40.

Friday, mainly cloudy skies and much cooler, some scattered rain and snow showers, high 26.

Saturday, cloudy skies, cold, a chance of some light snow, high only 24.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.